Optimal Opinion Control: The Campaign Problem

Opinion dynamics is nowadays a very common field of research. In this article we formulate and then study a novel, namely strategic perspective on such dynamics: There are the usual normal agents that update their opinions, for instance according the well-known bounded confidence mechanism. But, additionally, there is at least one strategic agent. That agent uses opinions as freely selectable strategies to get control on the dynamics: The strategic agent of our benchmark problem tries, during a campaign of a certain length, to influence the ongoing dynamics among normal agents with strategically placed opinions (one per period) in such a way, that, by the end of the campaign, as much as possible normals end up with opinions in a certain interval of the opinion space. Structurally, such a problem is an optimal control problem. That type of problem is ubiquitous. Resorting to advanced and partly non-standard methods for computing optimal controls, we solve some instances of the campaign problem. But even for a very small number of normal agents, just one strategic agent, and a ten-period campaign length, the problem turns out to be extremely difficult. Explicitly we discuss moral and political concerns that immediately arise, if someone starts to analyze the possibilities of an optimal opinion control.Comment: 47 pages, 12 figures, and 11 table

ColDICE: a parallel Vlasov-Poisson solver using moving adaptive simplicial tessellation

Resolving numerically Vlasov-Poisson equations for initially cold systems can be reduced to following the evolution of a three-dimensional sheet evolving in six-dimensional phase-space. We describe a public parallel numerical algorithm consisting in representing the phase-space sheet with a conforming, self-adaptive simplicial tessellation of which the vertices follow the Lagrangian equations of motion. The algorithm is implemented both in six- and four-dimensional phase-space. Refinement of the tessellation mesh is performed using the bisection method and a local representation of the phase-space sheet at second order relying on additional tracers created when needed at runtime. In order to preserve in the best way the Hamiltonian nature of the system, refinement is anisotropic and constrained by measurements of local Poincar\'e invariants. Resolution of Poisson equation is performed using the fast Fourier method on a regular rectangular grid, similarly to particle in cells codes. To compute the density projected onto this grid, the intersection of the tessellation and the grid is calculated using the method of Franklin and Kankanhalli (1993) generalised to linear order. As preliminary tests of the code, we study in four dimensional phase-space the evolution of an initially small patch in a chaotic potential and the cosmological collapse of a fluctuation composed of two sinusoidal waves. We also perform a "warm" dark matter simulation in six-dimensional phase-space that we use to check the parallel scaling of the code.Comment: Code and illustration movies available at: http://www.vlasix.org/index.php?n=Main.ColDICE - Article submitted to Journal of Computational Physic

Quantifying and combining uncertainty for improving the behavior of Digital Twin Systems

Uncertainty is an inherent property of any complex system, especially those that integrate physical parts or operate in real environments. In this paper, we focus on the Digital Twins of adaptive systems, which are particularly complex to design, verify, and optimize. One of the problems of having two systems (the physical one and its digital replica) is that their behavior may not always be consistent. In addition, both twins are normally subject to different types of uncertainties, which complicates their comparison. In this paper we propose the explicit representation and treatment of the uncertainty of both twins, and show how this enables a more accurate comparison of their behaviors. Furthermore, this allows us to reduce the overall system uncertainty and improve its behavior by properly averaging the individual uncertainties of the two twins. An exemplary incubator system is used to illustrate and validate our proposal

Maximum approximate entropy and r threshold: A new approach for regularity changes detection

Approximate entropy (ApEn) has been widely used as an estimator of regularity in many scientific fields. It has proved to be a useful tool because of its ability to distinguish different system's dynamics when there is only available short-length noisy data. Incorrect parameter selection (embedding dimension $m$, threshold $r$ and data length $N$) and the presence of noise in the signal can undermine the ApEn discrimination capacity. In this work we show that $r_{max}$ ($ApEn(m,r_{max},N)=ApEn_{max}$) can also be used as a feature to discern between dynamics. Moreover, the combined use of $ApEn_{max}$ and $r_{max}$ allows a better discrimination capacity to be accomplished, even in the presence of noise. We conducted our studies using real physiological time series and simulated signals corresponding to both low- and high-dimensional systems. When $ApEn_{max}$ is incapable of discerning between different dynamics because of the noise presence, our results suggest that $r_{max}$ provides additional information that can be useful for classification purposes. Based on cross-validation tests, we conclude that, for short length noisy signals, the joint use of $ApEn_{max}$ and $r_{max}$ can significantly decrease the misclassification rate of a linear classifier in comparison with their isolated use

Hydrological cycle in the Danube basin in present-day and XXII century simulations by IPCCAR4 global climate models

We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of 20 GCMs (Global Circulation Models) included in the 4th IPCC assessment report regarding their representation of the hydrological cycle on the Danube river basin for 1961–2000 and for the 2161–2200 SRESA1B scenario runs. The basin-scale properties of the hydrological cycle are computed by spatially integrating the precipitation, evaporation, and runoff fields using the Voronoi-Thiessen tessellation formalism. The span of the model- simulated mean annual water balances is of the same order of magnitude of the observed Danube discharge of the Delta; the true value is within the range simulated by the models. Some land components seem to have deficiencies since there are cases of violation of water conservation when annual means are considered. The overall performance and the degree of agreement of the GCMs are comparable to those of the RCMs (Regional Climate Models) analyzed in a previous work, in spite of the much higher resolution and common nesting of the RCMs. The reanalyses are shown to feature several inconsistencies and cannot be used as a verification benchmark for the hydrological cycle in the Danubian region. In the scenario runs, for basically all models the water balance decreases, whereas its interannual variability increases. Changes in the strength of the hydrological cycle are not consistent among models: it is confirmed that capturing the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle is not an easy task over land areas. Moreover, in several cases we find that qualitatively different behaviors emerge among the models: the ensemble mean does not represent any sort of average model, and often it falls between the models’ clusters

Energetics of climate models: net energy balance and meridional enthalpy transport

We analyze the publicly released outputs of the simulations performed by climate models (CMs) in preindustrial (PI) and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B (SRESA1B) conditions. In the PI simulations, most CMs feature biases of the order of 1 W m −2 for the net global and the net atmospheric, oceanic, and land energy balances. This does not result from transient effects but depends on the imperfect closure of the energy cycle in the fluid components and on inconsistencies over land. Thus, the planetary emission temperature is underestimated, which may explain the CMs' cold bias. In the PI scenario, CMs agree on the meridional atmospheric enthalpy transport's peak location (around 40°N/S), while discrepancies of ∼20% exist on the intensity. Disagreements on the oceanic transport peaks' location and intensity amount to ∼10° and ∼50%, respectively. In the SRESA1B runs, the atmospheric transport's peak shifts poleward, and its intensity increases up to ∼10% in both hemispheres. In most CMs, the Northern Hemispheric oceanic transport decreases, and the peaks shift equatorward in both hemispheres. The Bjerknes compensation mechanism is active both on climatological and interannual time scales. The total meridional transport peaks around 35° in both hemispheres and scenarios, whereas disagreements on the intensity reach ∼20%. With increased CO 2 concentration, the total transport increases up to ∼10%, thus contributing to polar amplification of global warming. Advances are needed for achieving a self-consistent representation of climate as a nonequilibrium thermodynamical system. This is crucial for improving the CMs' skill in representing past and future climate changes