Extended Dissipative Filter for Delayed T-S Fuzzy Network of Stochastic System with Packet Loss

This research investigates a time-varying delay-based adaptive event-triggered dissipative filtering problem for the interval type-2 (IT-2) Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy networked stochastic system. The concept of extended dissipativity is used to solve the ,  and dissipative performances for (IT-2) T-S fuzzy stochastic systems in a unified manner. Data packet failures and latency difficulties are taken into account while designing fuzzy filters. An adaptive event-triggered mechanism is presented to efficiently control network resources and minimise excessive continuous monitoring while assuring the system’s efficiency with extended dissipativity. A new adaptive event triggering scheme is proposed which depends on the dynamic error rather than pre-determined constant threshold. A new fuzzy stochastic Lyapunov-Krasovskii Functional (LKF) using fuzzy matrices with higher order integrals is built based on the Lyapunov stability principle for mode-dependent filters. Solvability of such LKF leads to the formation of appropriate conditions in the form of linear matrix inequalities, ensuring that the resulting error mechanism is stable. In order to highlight the utility and perfection of the proposed technique, an example is presented

Fault detection filter and fault accommodation controller design for uncertain systems

Model-based Fault Detection (FD) and Fault Accommodation (FA) approaches have been applied in a variety of cases. We propose several techniques to include uncertainties in the design process. First, we focus on the design of the Fault Detection Filter (FDF) and Fault Accommodation Controller (FAC) for Markovian Jump Linear Systems (MJLS). The MJLS framework allows us to include the network behavior (packet loss) during the design of the FDF and FAC.Second, we propose an FDF and FAC design for the MJLS, under the assumption that the Markov chain mode is not directly accessible. Since we are using the MJLS framework to model the network behavior, the assumption that the network state is not instantly accessible is useful because from a practical standpoint this is a truthful assumption. Third, from the results presented for the MJLS framework, we provided follow-up results using Lur'e Markov Jump System. This is compelling since on some occasions the non-linear behavior cannot be ignored. Therefore, applying the Lur'e MJS framework allows us to consider the same assumptions from MJLS, but now adds the non-linearities. Fourth, we propose the design Gain-Scheduled FDF and FAC for Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) systems, under the assumption that the schedule parameter is not directly acquired. We assume that the schedule parameter is subject to additive noise. This imprecision is included during the design, using change of variables and multi-simplex techniques. Finally, throughout the thesis, we provide some numerical examples to illustrate the viability of the proposed approaches

Sequential Modelling and Inference of High-frequency Limit Order Book with State-space Models and Monte Carlo Algorithms

The high-frequency limit order book (LOB) market has recently attracted increasing research attention from both the industry and the academia as a result of expanding algorithmic trading. However, the massive data throughput and the inherent complexity of high-frequency market dynamics also present challenges to some classic statistical modelling approaches. By adopting powerful state-space models from the field of signal processing as well as a number of Bayesian inference algorithms such as particle filtering, Markov chain Monte Carlo and variational inference algorithms, this thesis presents my extensive research into the high-frequency limit order book covering a wide scope of topics. Chapter 2 presents a novel construction of the non-homogeneous Poisson process to allow online intensity inference of limit order transactions arriving at a central exchange as point data. Chapter 3 extends a baseline jump diffusion model for market fair-price process to include three additional model features taken from real-world market intuitions. In Chapter 4, another price model is developed to account for both long-term and short-term diffusion behaviours of the price process. This is achieved by incorporating multiple jump-diffusion processes each exhibiting a unique characteristic. Chapter 5 observes the multi-regime nature of price diffusion processes as well as the non-Markovian switching behaviour between regimes. As such, a novel model is proposed which combines the continuous-time state-space model, the hidden semi-Markov switching model and the non-parametric Dirichlet process model. Additionally, building upon the general structure of the particle Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, I further propose an algorithm which achieves sequential state inference, regime identification and regime parameters learning requiring minimal prior assumptions. Chapter 6 focuses on the development of efficient parameter-learning algorithms for state-space models and presents three algorithms each demonstrating promising results in comparison to some well-established methods. The models and algorithms proposed in this thesis not only are practical tools for analysing high-frequency LOB markets, but can also be applied in various areas and disciplines beyond finance

Learning and Forecasting Opinion Dynamics in Social Networks

Social media and social networking sites have become a global pinboard for exposition and discussion of news, topics, and ideas, where social media users often update their opinions about a particular topic by learning from the opinions shared by their friends. In this context, can we learn a data-driven model of opinion dynamics that is able to accurately forecast opinions from users? In this paper, we introduce SLANT, a probabilistic modeling framework of opinion dynamics, which represents users opinions over time by means of marked jump diffusion stochastic differential equations, and allows for efficient model simulation and parameter estimation from historical fine grained event data. We then leverage our framework to derive a set of efficient predictive formulas for opinion forecasting and identify conditions under which opinions converge to a steady state. Experiments on data gathered from Twitter show that our model provides a good fit to the data and our formulas achieve more accurate forecasting than alternatives

Gain-Scheduled Fault Detection Filter For Discrete-time LPV Systems

The present work investigates a fault detection problem using a gain-scheduled filter for discrete-time Linear Parameter Varying systems. We assume that we cannot directly measure the scheduling parameter but, instead, it is estimated. On the one hand, this assumption imposes the challenge that the fault detection filter should perform properly even when using an inexact parameter. On the other, it avoids the burden associated with designing a complex estimation process for this parameter. We propose three design approaches: the ${\mathcal {H}_{2}}$ , ${\mathcal {H}_{\infty }}$ , and mixed ${\mathcal {H}_{2}} / {\mathcal {H}_{\infty }}$ gain-scheduled Fault Detection Filters designed via Linear Matrix Inequalities. We also provide numerical simulations to illustrate the applicability and performance of the proposed novel methods

Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers For Nonparametric Bayesian Mixture Models

Tez (Doktora) -- İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, 2012Thesis (PhD) -- İstanbul Technical University, Institute of Science and Technology, 2012Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, parametrik olmayan Bayesçi model seçim teknikleri içinde önemli bir yere sahip olan Dirichlet süreci karışım modelleri (DPM) için etkin ardışık Monte Carlo (SMC) örnekleyiciler tasarlamaktır. Tasarlanan algoritmalar, önerilen sınıf güncelleme metotları sayesinde, yeni gelen gözlemlerin ışığında parçacık gezingelerinde değişiklik yaparak gerçek DPM sonsal dağılımına daha iyi bir yaklaşıklık sağlamaktadır. Önerilen metot, DPM sonsal dağılımının çözümünde kullanılan diğer ardışık Monte Carlo örnekleyicileri genelleme özelliğe sahiptir. Tek ve çok boyutlu olasılık dağılımı kestirim problemlerinde yapılan değerlendirmelerde, özellikle sonsal dağılımın izole modlara sahip olduğu koşullarda, önerilen metodun klasik metotlara göre çok daha yüksek doğrulukta sonuca yakınsayabildiği görülmüştür. Ayrıca, manevralı hedeflerin takibinde ortaya atılan en yenilikçi modellerden biri olan değişken oranlı parçacık süzgeçleri (VRPF) tezde ele alınmış ve çoklu model yaklaşımları değişken oranlı modeller ile birleştirilerek, takip başarımını arttıran çoklu model değişken oranlı parçacık süzgeçleri (MM-VRPF) önerilmiştir. Çoklu model yaklaşımının manevralı hedef gezingelerini daha iyi modellediği benzetim sonuçları ile gösterilmiştir.In this thesis, we developed a novel online algorithm for posterior inference in Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) models that is based on the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers framework. The proposed method enables us to design new clustering update schemes, such as updating past trajectories of the particles in light of recent observations, and still ensures convergence to the true DPM posterior distribution asymptotically. Our method generalizes many sequential importance sampling based approaches and provides a computationally efficient improvement to particle filtering that is less prone to getting trapped in isolated modes. Performance has been evaluated in univariate and multivariate infinite Gaussian mixture density estimation problems. It is shown that the proposed algorithm outperforms conventional Monte Carlo approaches in terms of estimation variance and average log-marginal. Moreover, in this thesis we dealt with the maneuvering target tracking problem. We incorporated multiple model approach with the recently introduced variable rate particle filters (VRPF) in order to improve the tracking performance. The proposed variable rate model structure, referred as Multiple Model Variable Rate Particle Filter (MM-VRPF) results in a much more accurate tracking.DoktoraPh