Heterogeneous Change Point Inference

We propose HSMUCE (heterogeneous simultaneous multiscale change-point estimator) for the detection of multiple change-points of the signal in a heterogeneous gaussian regression model. A piecewise constant function is estimated by minimizing the number of change-points over the acceptance region of a multiscale test which locally adapts to changes in the variance. The multiscale test is a combination of local likelihood ratio tests which are properly calibrated by scale dependent critical values in order to keep a global nominal level alpha, even for finite samples. We show that HSMUCE controls the error of over- and underestimation of the number of change-points. To this end, new deviation bounds for F-type statistics are derived. Moreover, we obtain confidence sets for the whole signal. All results are non-asymptotic and uniform over a large class of heterogeneous change-point models. HSMUCE is fast to compute, achieves the optimal detection rate and estimates the number of change-points at almost optimal accuracy for vanishing signals, while still being robust. We compare HSMUCE with several state of the art methods in simulations and analyse current recordings of a transmembrane protein in the bacterial outer membrane with pronounced heterogeneity for its states. An R-package is available online

Dynamical selection of Nash equilibria using Experience Weighted Attraction Learning: emergence of heterogeneous mixed equilibria

We study the distribution of strategies in a large game that models how agents choose among different double auction markets. We classify the possible mean field Nash equilibria, which include potentially segregated states where an agent population can split into subpopulations adopting different strategies. As the game is aggregative, the actual equilibrium strategy distributions remain undetermined, however. We therefore compare with the results of Experience-Weighted Attraction (EWA) learning, which at long times leads to Nash equilibria in the appropriate limits of large intensity of choice, low noise (long agent memory) and perfect imputation of missing scores (fictitious play). The learning dynamics breaks the indeterminacy of the Nash equilibria. Non-trivially, depending on how the relevant limits are taken, more than one type of equilibrium can be selected. These include the standard homogeneous mixed and heterogeneous pure states, but also \emph{heterogeneous mixed} states where different agents play different strategies that are not all pure. The analysis of the EWA learning involves Fokker-Planck modeling combined with large deviation methods. The theoretical results are confirmed by multi-agent simulations.Comment: 35 pages, 16 figure

The Impact of Dual Credit as a School District Policy on Secondary and Postsecondary Student Outcomes

This study estimates the effects of dual credit on outcomes that trace a student’s journey from high school to undergraduate and graduate degree completion. Dual credit is a model program that allows high school students to enroll in college-level courses and simultaneously earn high school and college credit. This study investigates the potential for improving the design of dual-credit programs by exploring heterogeneous effects by program attributes. The study investigates if dual credit effects vary across course subjects. For a limited set of outcomes, the study investigates heterogeneous effects by the instructor’s highest degree earned, instruction mode, and location of instruction. Using panel data with school district fixed effects, this study finds that increases in the share of students earning dual credit are associated with increases in high school graduation; increases in university application, admission, and enrollment; shortened time to degree completion; and increases in degree completion. Districts that increase their average dual credit earned improve outcomes with each increase. Furthermore, dual credit courses produce larger increases in bachelor’s degree completion rates as compared to AP. Finally, evidence suggests that schools can most greatly amplify dual credit effects by prioritizing certain subjects.Ray Marshall Center for the Study of Human Resource

Bandwidth selection for kernel estimation in mixed multi-dimensional spaces

Kernel estimation techniques, such as mean shift, suffer from one major drawback: the kernel bandwidth selection. The bandwidth can be fixed for all the data set or can vary at each points. Automatic bandwidth selection becomes a real challenge in case of multidimensional heterogeneous features. This paper presents a solution to this problem. It is an extension of \cite{Comaniciu03a} which was based on the fundamental property of normal distributions regarding the bias of the normalized density gradient. The selection is done iteratively for each type of features, by looking for the stability of local bandwidth estimates across a predefined range of bandwidths. A pseudo balloon mean shift filtering and partitioning are introduced. The validity of the method is demonstrated in the context of color image segmentation based on a 5-dimensional space