3,503 research outputs found
Gaussian Process Conditional Copulas with Applications to Financial Time Series
The estimation of dependencies between multiple variables is a central
problem in the analysis of financial time series. A common approach is to
express these dependencies in terms of a copula function. Typically the copula
function is assumed to be constant but this may be inaccurate when there are
covariates that could have a large influence on the dependence structure of the
data. To account for this, a Bayesian framework for the estimation of
conditional copulas is proposed. In this framework the parameters of a copula
are non-linearly related to some arbitrary conditioning variables. We evaluate
the ability of our method to predict time-varying dependencies on several
equities and currencies and observe consistent performance gains compared to
static copula models and other time-varying copula methods
DADA: data assimilation for the detection and attribution of weather and climate-related events
A new nudging method for data assimilation, delay‐coordinate nudging, is presented. Delay‐coordinate nudging makes explicit use of present and past observations in the formulation of the forcing driving the model evolution at each time step. Numerical experiments with a low‐order chaotic system show that the new method systematically outperforms standard nudging in different model and observational scenarios, also when using an unoptimized formulation of the delay‐nudging coefficients. A connection between the optimal delay and the dominant Lyapunov exponent of the dynamics is found based on heuristic arguments and is confirmed by the numerical results, providing a guideline for the practical implementation of the algorithm. Delay‐coordinate nudging preserves the easiness of implementation, the intuitive functioning and the reduced computational cost of the standard nudging, making it a potential alternative especially in the field of seasonal‐to‐decadal predictions with large Earth system models that limit the use of more sophisticated data assimilation procedures
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