Comparison of Different Simulations Methods in Case of Service-Providing Companies

Optimal functioning of a market oriented company, in particular the service providing company, is an important example of optimisation of actions within the context of complex environment. In this article we discuss the prospective approach to represent reliably the quality dynamics of such a company, in order to contribute to possible future its quality management. The agent-based modelling is extracted, among the set of modelling methods, to serve as a frame for representing the generic service providing company and to analyse its dynamics with emphasis on extracting the quality dynamics

How modelling paradigms affect simulated future land use change

Land use models operating at regional to global scales are almost exclusively based on the single paradigm of economic optimisation. Models based on different paradigms are known to produce very different results, but these are not always equivalent or attributable to particular assumptions. In this study, we compare two pan-European integrated land use models that utilise the same climatic and socio-economic scenarios but which adopt fundamentally different modelling paradigms. One of these is a constrained optimising economic-equilibrium model, and the other is a stochastic agent-based model. We run both models for a range of scenario combinations and compare their projections of spatially aggregate and disaggregate land use changes and ecosystem service supply levels in food, forest and associated environmental systems. We find that the models produce very different results in some scenarios, with simulated food production varying by up to half of total demand and the extent of intensive agriculture varying by up to 25 % of the EU land area. The agent-based model projects more multifunctional and heterogeneous landscapes in most scenarios, providing a wider range of ecosystem services at landscape scales, as agents make individual, time-dependent decisions that reflect economic and non-economic motivations. This tendency also results in food shortages under certain scenario conditions. The optimisation model, in contrast, maintains food supply through intensification of agricultural production in the most profitable areas, sometimes at the expense of land abandonment in large parts of Europe. We relate the principal differences observed to underlying model assumptions and hypothesise that optimisation may be appropriate in scenarios that allow for coherent political and economic control of land systems, but not in scenarios in which economic and other scenario conditions prevent the changes in prices and responses required to approach economic equilibrium. In these circumstances, agent-based modelling allows explicit consideration of behavioural processes, but in doing so it provides a highly flexible account of land system development that is harder to link to underlying assumptions. We suggest that structured comparisons of parallel and transparent but paradigmatically distinct models are an important method for better understanding the potential scope and uncertainties of future land use change, particularly given the substantive differences that currently exist in the outcomes of such models

Medição do comportamento social individual e percepção de medo durante a pandemia por COVID-19 em chefes de família

Objective: To identify the characteristics of social and individual behavior and perception of fear during the COVID-19 pandemic in socially isolated heads of households. Material and methods: Cross-sectional, prospective and analytical observational study. 372 heads of households resident in Tacna city were included, during the year 2020, selected by multistage sampling; foreigners, bystanders, persons in mandatory isolation due to COVID-19 infection were excluded per confirmed case or suspicious contact and persons who did not take basic biosecurity measure. We applied a questionnaire to measure the perception of social behavior and fear in the home with informed consent. Descriptive and analytical statistics with logistic regression were used to determine strength of association with multivariate analysis. Results: The heads of families were characterized by having ages between 40 and 49 (37.6 %), cohabiting (65.1 %), complete high school (51.1 %). 8.3 % had contact with suspected family members with COVID-19 under the same roof, 34.9 % with close family members. Consider the risk of developing COVID-19 (43.5 %). Regarding social behavior, 89.5 % adopt buying respiratory masks; 81.7 % purchase alcohol; only 39 % adopt hand washing. 54.6 % had partial insulation, 32.8 % preferred not to have an opinion and only 12.7 % had permanent total insulation. Conclusion: There are significant differences according to age and condition of contact with coworkers associated with fear. Social behavior was statistically different according to age, the environment of risk is mainly by co-workers.Objetivo: Identificar las características del comportamiento social e individual y percepción de miedo durante la pandemia COVID-19 en jefes de familia en aislamiento social. Material y métodos: Estudio observacional de corte transversal, prospectivo y analítico. Se incluyó a 372 jefes de familia residentes del cercado de Tacna durante el año 2020, seleccionados por muestreo multietápico; se excluyó extranjeros, transeúntes, personas en aislamiento obligatorio por infección COVID-19 por caso confirmado o contacto sospechoso y personas que no adoptaron medidas básicas de bioseguridad. Se aplicó cuestionario de medición de percepción de comportamiento social y miedo, en domicilio previo consentimiento informado. Se utilizó estadística descriptiva y analítica con regresión logística para determinar fuerza de asociación con análisis multivariante. Resultados: Los jefes de familia se caracterizaron por tener edades entre 40 a 49 (37,6 %), convivientes (65,1 %), secundaria completa (51,1 %). El 8,3 % tuvo contacto con familiar sospechoso con COVID-19 bajo el mismo techo, el 34,9 % con familiar cercano. Considera riesgo de padecer COVID-19 (43,5 %). Respecto a conducta social, el 89,5 % adopta comprar mascarillas respiratorias; el 81,7 % adquisición de alcohol; solo el 39 % adopta el lavado de manos. El 54,6 % ha cumplido con aislamiento parcial, el 32,8 % prefiere no opinar y solo el 12,7 % realizó aislamiento total permanente. Conclusión: Existen diferencias significativas según edad y condición de contacto con compañeros de trabajo asociados al miedo. El compor tamiento social fue estadísticamente diferente según edad, el entorno de riesgo es principalmente por compañeros de trabajo.Objetivo: Identificar as características do comportamento social e individual e percepção de medo durante a pandemia COVID-19 em chefes de família em isolamento social. Material e métodos: Estudo observacional de corte transversal, prospectivo e analítico. Foram incluídos 372 chefes de família residentes do cercado de Tacna durante o ano 2020, selecionados por amostragem multietápica; foram excluídos estrangeiros, transeuntes, pessoas em isolamento obrigatório por infecção COVID-19 por caso confirmado ou contacto suspeito e pessoas que não tomaram medidas básicas de biossegurança. Aplicou - se questionário de medição de percepção de comportamento social e medo, em domicílio prévio consentimento informado. Utilizou-se estatística descritiva e analítica com regressão logística para determinar a força de associação com análise multivariante. Resultados: Os chefes de família caracterizaram-se por terem idades entre 40 e 49 (37,6 %), conviventes (65,1 %), secundário completo (51,1 %). 8,3% tiveram contato com parentes suspeitos com COVID-19 sob o mesmo teto, 34,9% com parentes próximos. Considera-se que existe risco de COVID-19 (43,5 %). No que se refere aocomportamento social, 89,5 % dos consumidores compram máscaras respiratórias; 81,7 % adquirem álcool; apenas 39 % adotam a lavagem das mãos. Os 54,6 % cumpriram com isolamento parcial, 32,8 % preferem não opinar e apenas 12,7 % fizeram isolamento total permanente. Conclusão: Existem diferenças significativas segundo idade e condição de contato com colegas de trabalho associados ao medo. O comportamento social foi estatisticamente diferente segundo a idade, o ambiente de risco é principalmente por colegas de trabalho

Sensitivity analysis of agent-based models: a new protocol

Agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly used in the management sciences. Though useful, ABMs are often critiqued: it is hard to discern why they produce the results they do and whether other assumptions would yield similar results. To help researchers address such critiques, we propose a systematic approach to conducting sensitivity analyses of ABMs. Our approach deals with a feature that can complicate sensitivity analyses: most ABMs include important non-parametric elements, while most sensitivity analysis methods are designed for parametric elements only. The approach moves from charting out the elements of an ABM through identifying the goal of the sensitivity analysis to specifying a method for the analysis. We focus on four common goals of sensitivity analysis: determining whether results are robust, which elements have the greatest impact on outcomes, how elements interact to shape outcomes, and which direction outcomes move when elements change. For the first three goals, we suggest a combination of randomized finite change indices calculation through a factorial design. For direction of change, we propose a modification of individual conditional expectation (ICE) plots to account for the stochastic nature of the ABM response. We illustrate our approach using the Garbage Can Model, a classic ABM that examines how organizations make decisions

Sensitivity analysis of agent-based models: a new protocol

Agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly used in the management sciences. Though useful, ABMs are often critiqued: it is hard to discern why they produce the results they do and whether other assumptions would yield similar results. To help researchers address such critiques, we propose a systematic approach to conducting sensitivity analyses of ABMs. Our approach deals with a feature that can complicate sensitivity analyses: most ABMs include important non-parametric elements, while most sensitivity analysis methods are designed for parametric elements only. The approach moves from charting out the elements of an ABM through identifying the goal of the sensitivity analysis to specifying a method for the analysis. We focus on four common goals of sensitivity analysis: determining whether results are robust, which elements have the greatest impact on outcomes, how elements interact to shape outcomes, and which direction outcomes move when elements change. For the first three goals, we suggest a combination of randomized finite change indices calculation through a factorial design. For direction of change, we propose a modification of individual conditional expectation (ICE) plots to account for the stochastic nature of the ABM response. We illustrate our approach using the Garbage Can Model, a classic ABM that examines how organizations make decisions

Towards simulating the emergence of environmentally responsible behavior among natural resource users : an integration of complex systems theory, machine learning and geographic information science

La gouvernance pour le développement durable comporte de nombreux défis. L'un de ces défis consiste à mieux comprendre les systèmes socio-écologiques gouvernés. Dans de tels systèmes, l'apprentissage par essais et erreurs implique le risque de conséquences inattendues, irréversibles et néfastes. De plus, en raison de la complexité des systèmes socio-écologiques, les leçons tirées d'expériences à petite échelle ne peuvent pas toujours être applicables à des problèmes à grande échelle. Un autre aspect difficile des problèmes de développement durable est que ces problèmes sont souvent multidisciplinaires et composés de composants qui sont chacun étudiés individuellement dans une discipline différente, mais il existe peu d'informations sur leur comportement ensemble. Un troisième défi de la gouvernance pour le développement durable est qu'il est souvent nécessaire d'impliquer les parties prenantes dans des actions de gestion et des mesures d'intervention coûteuses pour les individus qui y participent. De plus, dans de nombreuses situations de ce type, les incitations financières et l'application des réglementations se soldent par un échec et ne constituent donc pas des options de gouvernance. Dans cette thèse, les défis ci-dessus sont abordés dans un exemple de contrôle des perturbations forestières avec une approche intégrée. Pour éviter le problème des effets indésirables irréversibles et pour permettre des expériences répétées, une approche de simulation est utilisée. Pour relever le défi de la multidisciplinarité des problèmes des systèmes socio-écologiques, deux modèles sont développés indépendamment - portant sur les aspects sociaux et écologiques du système de l'étude - et ils sont ensuite couplés de telle sorte que la sortie de chaque modèle est utilisée comme entrée pour l'autre modèle. Pour résoudre le problème de l'engagement des parties prenantes, un plan est proposé pour la promotion d'un comportement respectueux de l'environnement. Ce plan est basé sur l'offre de reconnaissance à ceux qui adoptent volontairement le comportement responsable. Le modèle écologique de cette étude, qui simule la propagation d'une perturbation forestière, est construit à l'aide de l’apprentissage automatique supervisé. Le modèle social de cette étude, qui simule l'émergence d'une nouvelle norme de comportement, est construit à l'aide de l'apprentissage par renforcement. Les deux modèles sont testés et validés avant couplage. Le modèle couplé est ensuite utilisé comme un laboratoire virtuel, où plusieurs expériences sont réalisées dans un cadre hypothétique et selon différents scénarios. Chacune de ces expériences est une simulation. A travers ces simulations, cette étude montre qu'avec un algorithme de prise de décision approprié et avec suffisamment de temps pour l'interaction entre une entité gouvernante et la société, il est possible de créer une motivation pour un comportement responsable dans la société. En d'autres termes, il est possible d'encourager la participation volontaire des acteurs à l'action pour le développement durable, sans que l'entité gouvernante ait besoin d'utiliser des incitations financières ou d'imposer son autorité. Ces résultats peuvent être applicables à d'autres contextes où un comportement responsable des individus ou des entreprises est recherché afin d'atténuer l'impact d'une perturbation, de protéger une ressource écologique, ou de faciliter une transition sectorielle vers la durabilité.Governance for sustainable development involves many challenges. One of those challenges is to gain insight about the social-ecological systems being governned. In such systems, learning by trial and error involve the risk of unexpected, irreversible and adverse consequences. Moreover, due to complexity of social-ecological systems, lessons learned from small scale experiments may not be applicable in large-scale problems. Another challenging aspect of problems of sustainable development is that these problems are often multidisciplinary and comprised of components that are each studied individually in a different discipline, but little information exists about their behavior together as a whole. A third challenge in governance for sustainable development is that often it is necessary to involve stakeholders in management actions and intervention measures that are costly for individuals who participate in them. Moreover, in many of these situations financial incentives or enforcement of regulations result in failure, and are thus not options for governance. In this thesis, the above challenges are addressed in an example case of forest disturbance control with an integrated approach. To avoid the problem of irreversible adverse effects and to allow repeated experiments, a simulation approach is used. To tackle the challenge of multidisciplinarity of problems of social-ecological systems, two models are independently developed – pertaining to social and ecological aspects of the system of the study – and they are subsequently coupled in such a way that the output of each model served as an input for the other. To address the problem of engagement of stakeholders, a scheme is proposed for promotion of environmentally responsible behavior. This scheme is based on offering recognition to those who voluntarily perform the responsible behavior. The ecological model of this study, which simulates the spread of a forest disturbance, is built using Supervised Machine Learning. The social model of this study, which simulates the emergence of a new norm of behavior, is built using Reinforcement Learning. Both models are tested and validated before coupling. The coupled model is then used as a virtual laboratory, where several experiments are performed in a hypothetical setting and under various scenarios. Each such experiment is a simulation. Through these simulations, this study shows that with an appropriate decision-making algorithm and with sufficient time for interaction between a governing entity and the society, it is possible to create motivation for responsible behavior in the society. In other words, it is possible to encourage voluntary participation of stakeholders in action for sustainable development, without the need for the governing entity to use financial incentives or impose its authority. These results may be applicable to other contexts where responsible behavior by individuals or enterprises is sought in order to mitigate the impact of a disturbance, protect an ecological resource, or facilitate a sectoral transition towards sustainability

Paikallisen ruuan tulevaisuudet ja yhteiskunnalliset vaikutukset

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Paikallisen ruuan tulevaisuudet ja yhteiskunnalliset vaikutukset

Erilaiset vaihtoehtoiset ruokajärjestelmät haastavat hallitsevan ruokajärjestelmän. Monissa vaihtoehtoisissa järjestelmissä korostuvat tuottajan ja kuluttajan vuorovaikutus, sosiaaliset ja ympäristökysymykset sekä paikallisuus. Ruuan tuotantopaikat, tuottajat ja kuluttajat kytkeytyvät yhteen pitkään jatkuneen eriytymiskehityksen jälkeen uusilla, nykyaikaisilla tavoilla. Koska tällaiset ruokajärjestelmät yleistyvät kehittyneissä teollisuusmaissa, hallitseva ruokajärjestelmä ei ilmiselvästi tyydytä kaikkien ruokaketjun osapuolten tarpeita riittävällä tavalla. Aika näyttää, tuleeko vaihtoehtoisista järjestelmistä valtavirtaa vai jäävätkö ne ”vaihtoehtoisiksi”. Tässä raportissa on esitetty tulokset ”Paikallisen ruuan tulevaisuuskuvat ja yhteiskunnalliset vaikutukset” -hankkeesta (PARTY). Hankkeessa laadittiin kirjallisuuskatsauksen ja tulevaisuusverstaiden pohjalta tulevaisuuskuvat neljän kestävän kehityksen ulottuvuuden varaan rakentuvista paikallisista ruokajärjestelmistä: lyhyestä, vihreästä, reilusta ja aidosta ketjusta. Lyhyen ketjun mahdollisen toteutumisen keskiössä ovat toimintatavat ja ketjun valtarakenteet, Vihreän ketjun tuotekehitys, teknologia ja innovaatiot, Reilun ketjun toimijuus ja tieto sekä Aidon ketjun kulttuuri, arvostus ja tuoteosaaminen. Tulevaisuuskuvien toteutumisella olisi asiantuntija-arvioiden perusteella suurimmat vaikutukset maaseudun elinvoimaisuuden vahvistumiseen, ruokajärjestelmän sosiaalisen hyväksyttävyyden parantumiseen, aineettoman hyvinvoinnin lisääntymiseen ja ruokatuotannon kannattavuuden parantumiseen. Tulevaisuuskuvien hahmottaman ruokajärjestelmän lupaavimmat kehittämiskohteet olisivat asiantuntija-arvioiden perusteella kiertotalouden vahvistaminen, ympäristökuormitusta vähentävä tuotekehitys, paikallisen ruuan suosiminen julkisissa hankinnoissa ja ruokavalioiden muuttaminen kasvispainotteisemmiksi. Tulokset eivät ole ennusteita: ne antavat viitteitä siitä, mihin asioihin ruokajärjestelmän muutoksessa, kehittämisessä ja tutkimuksessa on syytä kiinnittää huomiota

Agent-based modelling of social risk amplification during product crises

Public response to risk is socially shaped in a way that often over- or under-estimates expert risk assessments. One of the main theoretical tools to examine public risk perception is the social amplification of risk framework (SARF). This framework proposes a mechanism through which risk responses arise from interactions among various social actors, but past empirical work has been mainly concerned with correlations between structural variables rather than the mechanism of amplification and the process over time by which it develops. And more importantly, there has been quite limited modelling of risk amplification to date. This study aims to discover a way of formalising social risk amplification, to find out what are the necessary assumptions for modelling risk amplification, and to work out what consequences this modelling would predict. It is an attempt to model collective response to risks that are significant at a societal level but which materialise in a distributed way across a population. The natural heterogeneity of individual risk perceivers, the emergence of behaviour through interactions of social actors, and the complex feedback loops linking risk perception with risk related behaviour point to using an agent-based model as a modelling medium. The study is developed in the context of product contamination scandals such as the recent cases in China of contaminated milk products. One of the important features of contamination crises is that product recall has become an increasingly inevitable part and is often a key element in risk communication during such crises. Yet recalls send ambiguous signals about the misconduct of the organization in question: they clearly indicate some kind of failure, and possibly negligence, in the product that are associated with a risk of significant harm; but they also suggest that the organization is concerned with consumers’ welfare. The model that was developed is based on the principle that risk perceivers have to assimilate risk through the risk beliefs of others, their direct experience of a risk, and communications about the risk from organizations (including their product recall decisions) and the media. And it is based on the principle that, as well as discovering the nature of a risk, risk perceivers also make judgments about wrongfulness (which Freudenburg called recreancy) – and this also shapes the strength of risk responses. The model is partially calibrated with a consumer survey carried out in the context of a Chinese milk contamination scandal that took place in recent years. Simulation results from the model show that public risk perception grows progressively toward an exogenous peak before it immediately decays, and that there is a relatively high residue of concern after the crisis is resolved. The objectivity of media coverage appears to be inversely related to risk amplification: a media that simply follows public opinion is associated more strongly with exaggerated risk perceptions than an objective one. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the initial conditions, objective risk level, duration of contamination, and variation of recreancy perception are the most significant influences on the degree of social amplification. This knowledge helps prioritize data collection for future research and identify important aspects that particularly require managerial attention. The main contribution of this study is to develop a process of modelling social risk amplification that consists of three steps of increasing contextualisation. The first step involves a basic model that captures social risk amplification as a general theory relative to all kinds of risk event. The second step contextualises this model specifically for product recall crises. It involves extracting agent decision rules from the literature on product recall, based on statistical associations found in empirical work on recall crises. And the third step contextualises the model for a specific population. It involves calibrating the relative importance of different information sources for the heterogeneous agent population using a survey of Chinese consumers responding to a milk contamination crisis. One important insight from the process of modelling risk amplification is that SARF is not sufficient for modelling particular crises. It seems essential that modelling of SARF should involve a clearly defined context in which risk responses arise

Agent-based modelling of the spatio-temporal interaction between immune cells and human-pathogenic fungi

Human-pathogene Pilze stellen aufgrund der zunehmenden Anzahl von immungeschwächten Patienten ein zunehmendes Problem im Gesundheitswesen dar und sind mit hohen Sterblichkeitsraten assoziiert. Das menschliche Immunsystem ein hochkomplexes System stellt ein Arsenal an Effektormechanismen bereit, die den gesunden Zustand des Wirts schützen. Vielfältige Ursachen können jedoch diese schützende Funktion des Immunsystems beeinträchtigen, was es eindringenden Mikroben erlaubt, schwere Infektionen zu verursachen. Die Forschung an Wirt-Pathogen-Interaktionen zwischen humanpathogenen Pilzen und dem Immunsystem ist essentiell für die Entwicklung neuer diagnostischer und therapeutischer Verfahren. In dieser Arbeit wurden diese Wirt-Pathogen-Interaktionen entsprechend des Konzepts der Systembiologie, untersucht. Basierend auf experimentellen Daten wurden virtuelle Infektionsmodelle entwickelt, um die treibenden Kräfte der angeborenen Immunantwort gegen die pilzlichen Erreger Candida albicans, Candida glabrata und Aspergillus fumigatus zu entschlüsseln. ..