Gaining insight into AS-level outages through analysis of internet background radiation

Abstract—Internet Background Radiation (IBR) is unsolicited network traffic mostly generated by malicious software, e.g., worms, scans. In previous work, we extracted a signal from IBR traffic arriving at a large (/8) segment of unassigned IPv4 address space to identify large-scale disruptions of connectivity at an Autonomous System (AS) granularity, and used our technique to study episodes of government censorship and natural disasters [1]. Here we explore other IBR-derived metrics that may provide insights into the causes of macroscopic connectivity disruptions. We propose metrics indicating packet loss (e.g., due to link congestion) along a path from a specific AS to our observation point. We use three case studies to illustrate how our metrics can help identify packet loss characteristics of an outage. These metrics could be used in the diagnostic component of a semi-automated system for detecting and characterizing large-scale outages. I

Chocolatine: Outage Detection for Internet Background Radiation

The Internet is a complex ecosystem composed of thousands of Autonomous Systems (ASs) operated by independent organizations; each AS having a very limited view outside its own network. These complexities and limitations impede network operators to finely pinpoint the causes of service degradation or disruption when the problem lies outside of their network. In this paper, we present Chocolatine, a solution to detect remote connectivity loss using Internet Background Radiation (IBR) through a simple and efficient method. IBR is unidirectional unsolicited Internet traffic, which is easily observed by monitoring unused address space. IBR features two remarkable properties: it is originated worldwide, across diverse ASs, and it is incessant. We show that the number of IP addresses observed from an AS or a geographical area follows a periodic pattern. Then, using Seasonal ARIMA to statistically model IBR data, we predict the number of IPs for the next time window. Significant deviations from these predictions indicate an outage. We evaluated Chocolatine using data from the UCSD Network Telescope, operated by CAIDA, with a set of documented outages. Our experiments show that the proposed methodology achieves a good trade-off between true-positive rate (90%) and false-positive rate (2%) and largely outperforms CAIDA's own IBR-based detection method. Furthermore, performing a comparison against other methods, i.e., with BGP monitoring and active probing, we observe that Chocolatine shares a large common set of outages with them in addition to many specific outages that would otherwise go undetected.Comment: TMA 201

Detection of Sparse Anomalies in High-Dimensional Network Telescope Signals

Network operators and system administrators are increasingly overwhelmed with incessant cyber-security threats ranging from malicious network reconnaissance to attacks such as distributed denial of service and data breaches. A large number of these attacks could be prevented if the network operators were better equipped with threat intelligence information that would allow them to block or throttle nefarious scanning activities. Network telescopes or "darknets" offer a unique window into observing Internet-wide scanners and other malicious entities, and they could offer early warning signals to operators that would be critical for infrastructure protection and/or attack mitigation. A network telescope consists of unused or "dark" IP spaces that serve no users, and solely passively observes any Internet traffic destined to the "telescope sensor" in an attempt to record ubiquitous network scanners, malware that forage for vulnerable devices, and other dubious activities. Hence, monitoring network telescopes for timely detection of coordinated and heavy scanning activities is an important, albeit challenging, task. The challenges mainly arise due to the non-stationarity and the dynamic nature of Internet traffic and, more importantly, the fact that one needs to monitor high-dimensional signals (e.g., all TCP/UDP ports) to search for "sparse" anomalies. We propose statistical methods to address both challenges in an efficient and "online" manner; our work is validated both with synthetic data as well as real-world data from a large network telescope

A Concurrent Mixed Method Study Exploring Iraqi Immigrants\u27 Views of Michigan

Failure of emergency response personnel to communicate effectively with different cultures can have dire consequences during an emergency, including loss of lives and litigation costs. For emergency response personnel to communicate the risk of an emergency, it is important to understand how different groups, especially newly arrived foreign immigrants, perceive warnings and related messages. This study addressed how one of the largest category of immigrants in Michigan perceived severe tornados, influenza pandemics, power outages, severe floods, and snowstorms. The research question examined the degree to which the equation, Risk = Hazard + Outrage, explained perceptions of these hazards in Michigan among newly arrived Iraqi immigrants. A concurrent mixed-method design was used. In-person interviews were conducted using quantitative and qualitative questions based on the equation and the PEN 3 model with 84 immigrants from Iraq who lived in the United States 4 years or less. Respondents\u27 levels of outrage and hazard were compared using ANOVA. The calculated levels were compared with the qualitative comments made during the interviews. Snowstorms measured the highest outrage, and power outages measured the least. The reported awareness level was lowest for snowstorms with the highest being power outages. More information needs to reach Iraqi immigrants regarding unfamiliar hazards. Communicators should use Iraqi immigrants\u27 experience with familiar hazards to identify effective ways of responding to this population. The results of this study may promote social change of more effective communication and saving lives in the future should an emergency occur in Michigan that affects Iraqi immigrants

Solar electrification to improve power access in urban areas in developing countries at no additional cost : case study of Nigeria

O acesso à eletricidade está associado à melhoria dos meios de subsistência, educação, saúde, crescimento económico e redução geral da pobreza. A grande maioria das pessoas que vivem sem, ou com acesso não fiável, a energia elétrica encontra-se na África subsaariana e sudeste asiático. Apesar de ser a maior economia de África, a Nigéria sofre de problemas graves de cortes frequentes de energia, obrigando muitos residentes a procurar opções de auto-geração, sobretudo geradores a diesel, com custos de investimento inicial relativamente baixo, mas que trazem riscos à saúde e ao meio ambiente. Uma alternativa viável são os sistemas fotovoltaicos; no entanto, o investimento inicial é muito maior em comparação com os geradores a diesel, criando uma barreira para muitos nigerianos. A primeira parte desta tese explora a opção de geração de eletricidade solar em ambiente urbano, mais limpa e mais acessível, aumentando o acesso fiável a eletricidade e reduzindo, ou eliminando, o uso de geradores a diesel. Propõe-se um caminho para a implementação em larga escala de sistemas fotovoltaicos domésticos em ambiente urbano, com o custo coberto pela poupança de combustível, possibilitado por uma política eficaz que melhora o acesso a opções de financiamento. Aproveitando dados reais de uma campanha de monitorização de consumo de eletricidade em Lagos, o centro comercial da Nigéria, os resultados mostram uma oportunidade para reduzir ou eliminar o uso de geradores a diesel aplicando a poupança de custos de combustível para financiar sistemas fotovoltaicos. A segunda parte desta tese trata do setor comercial, que tem sido significativamente prejudicado pela pouca disponibilidade de eletricidade confiável. Quase metade das empresas na Nigéria identificou a eletricidade como um grande obstáculo, com mais de um quarto delas apresentando a eletricidade como maior obstáculo. As perdas comerciais devido a interrupções elétricas são significativas, com perdas médias estimadas de cerca de 16% das vendas anuais. A falta de acesso a eletricidade confiável é um dos maiores desafios para o crescimento económico na Nigéria. É proposto um meio de fornecer energia ao setor comercial através de eletrificação solar por enxame (swarm). É descrita uma estrutura conceitual para o uso de uma rede distribuída composta de sistemas fotovoltaicos domésticos ligados à rede como uma opção viável para fornecer ao setor comercial um acesso mais confiável à eletricidade. Finalmente, são abordadas as implicações de política para o setor comercial com mais opções de eletrificação, implicações que incluem um forte impacto económico e a expansão e criação de novas indústrias.Access to electricity has been linked to improved livelihood, education, health, economic growth, and overall poverty reduction. The vast majority of people living without electricity or unreliable electricity access are concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Despite being the largest economy in Africa, Nigeria suffers from severe power outages, forcing many residents to seek self-generation options. By far, the most adopted option has been diesel generators that have a relatively low initial investment cost but carry health and environmental risks. A viable alternative is solar photovoltaic systems; however, the initial investment is much higher compared to diesel generators, creating a barrier for many Nigerians. Part one of this thesis addresses making cleaner electricity generation through solar PV systems more attainable, increasing access to more reliable electricity, and reducing or eliminating the use of diesel generators. It proposes a pathway for securing residential solar PV systems with the cost covered through fuel savings and enabled by an effective policy that improves access to financing options. Leveraging real data from a monitoring campaign in Lagos, the commercial hub of Nigeria, results show an opportunity to reduce or eliminate the use of diesel generators by applying fuel cost savings to finance solar PV systems. The second part of this thesis addresses Nigeria's commercial sector, which has been significantly hampered due to the poor availability of reliable electricity. Nearly half of the firms doing business in Nigeria have identified electricity as a major constraint, with over a quarter of them listing electricity as their biggest obstacle. The business losses due to electrical outages are significant, with losses averaging about 16% of annual sales. The lack of access to reliable electricity is one of the biggest challenges to economic growth in Nigeria. A means of powering the commercial sector in Nigeria using urban swarm electrification is proposed. This thesis outlines a conceptual framework for using a distributed network made up of grid-connected home solar PV systems as a viable option for providing the commercial sector with more reliable access to electricity. It further addresses the policy implications for the commercial sector with the enablement of more electrification options, implications that include strong economic impact, and the expansion and creation of new industries

Opportunities and challenges for distributed generation with rooftop photovoltaic (PV) for Uganda: a case study crusader house, Kampala

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfillment for the degree of Master of Architecture (Sustainable Energy Efficient Cities). Johannesburg, 2018Distributed generation with rooftop PV technology is increasingly attracting attention as a strategy to enhance energy security for cities and as a critical climate-change mitigation intervention globally. In order to interrogate the strategy for a developing country context, the study applies a case study approach to explore responsive business models as well as related opportunities and challenges of DGRTPV deployment in Uganda, given the country’s advantage of abundant solar radiation as a result of favourable location across the equator. The study substantiates on the research question which focuses on rooftop PV business models, policy and legislation environment, energy efficiency interventions and financial mechanisms for expedited adoption of the technological innovation for commercial buildings in Uganda. In order to substantiate on the working hypothesis, interviews were conducted with key informants from the case study building-occupants and property manager, MEMD, ERA, KCCA, and UMEME. Data were collected using semi-structured interviews as well as energy audits and energy performance simulations of the case study building based on Excel and Design-Builder Energy-Plus software in order to ascertain performance under alternative intervention scenarios. The case study building consists of two blocks (the main block which is 5 storeys and the annex which is 4 storeys) and is grid-connected, but has standby generator with diesel consumption of up to 4,800 litres/year. The building was built in 1988 for the main block and 1993 for the annex and no energy efficiency interventions have been implemented so far. Overall, the baseline energy consumption is at 191,127.5kWh/year excluding diesel generation at 100,000kWh/year (2010 blackouts were 8 hours per day but at present, the generator is used for only 2 hours per day). Simulations, manual calculations, and economic feasibility appraisals were applied to guide on the viable energy efficiency and photovoltaic (PV) interventions. This resulted into viable energy reduction of 90,404.5kWh/year with a payback period of 0.6 months for lighting systems and additional energy efficiency interventions. Rooftop PV generation evaluation indicated an output of approximately 124,328.75kWh per year with the payback period of 7.6 years. Overall the study finds that the roof space area (610m2 ) of the building offers potential for generating surplus electricity which can be fed to the grid when responsive policy/regulatory environment is effected. The solar service business model is prioritised as the most viable given the current policy/regulatory landscape for Uganda as well as envisaged policy changes in the short term. Given Uganda’s low-carbon electricity generation mix, the study finds that opportunity for carbon emission reduction for the building would mainly arise from the displacement of the standby diesel generator whose current emission is estimated at 4,000kg/year. The study therefore concludes that DGRTPV deployment is now mature for scale-up in commercial buildings for Uganda.MT 201

Power quality and electromagnetic compatibility: special report, session 2

The scope of Session 2 (S2) has been defined as follows by the Session Advisory Group and the Technical Committee: Power Quality (PQ), with the more general concept of electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) and with some related safety problems in electricity distribution systems. Special focus is put on voltage continuity (supply reliability, problem of outages) and voltage quality (voltage level, flicker, unbalance, harmonics). This session will also look at electromagnetic compatibility (mains frequency to 150 kHz), electromagnetic interferences and electric and magnetic fields issues. Also addressed in this session are electrical safety and immunity concerns (lightning issues, step, touch and transferred voltages). The aim of this special report is to present a synthesis of the present concerns in PQ&EMC, based on all selected papers of session 2 and related papers from other sessions, (152 papers in total). The report is divided in the following 4 blocks: Block 1: Electric and Magnetic Fields, EMC, Earthing systems Block 2: Harmonics Block 3: Voltage Variation Block 4: Power Quality Monitoring Two Round Tables will be organised: - Power quality and EMC in the Future Grid (CIGRE/CIRED WG C4.24, RT 13) - Reliability Benchmarking - why we should do it? What should be done in future? (RT 15

State of the Art and Trends Review of Smart Metering in Electricity Grids

Climate change, awareness of energy efficiency, new trends in electricity markets, the obsolescence of the actual electricity model, and the gradual conversion of consumers to prosumer profiles are the main agents of progressive change in electricity systems towards the Smart Grid paradigm. The introduction of multiple distributed generation and storage resources, with a strong involvement of renewable energies, exposes the necessity of advanced metering or Smart Metering systems, able to manage and control those distributed resources. Due to the heterogeneity of the Smart Metering systems and the specific features of each grid, it is easy to find in the related literature a wide range of solutions with different features. This work describes the key elements in a Smart Metering system and compiles the most employed technologies and standards as well as their main features. Since Smart Metering systems can perform jointly with other activities, these growing initiatives are also addressed. Finally, a revision of the main trends in Smart Metering uses and deployments worldwide is included.his work has been partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (project TEC2015-67868-C3-1-R), the University of the Basque Country (UPV/EHU) within the program for the specialization of the postdoctoral researcher staff, and Microgrids with Renewable Distributed Generation (MIGEDIR) (project 713RT0468), funded by the Science and Technology for Development Iberoamerican Program (CYTED)

Energy Sustainability in Morocco

Morocco imports 96% of its energy, threatening its energy security. To combat this, 2,000 MW each of solar, wind, and hydroelectric power are planned. Energy conservation efforts have been initiated with mixed success. This report outlines Morocco’s energy strategy, evaluating its successes and failures. Recommendations were made to reduce energy use, implement local-scale projects, pursue global collaboration, and promote research and development in renewable technology. This report will guide Ribat Al Fath in influencing Moroccan energy policy