Heterogeneous data source integration for smart grid ecosystems based on metadata mining

The arrival of new technologies related to smart grids and the resulting ecosystem of applications andmanagement systems pose many new problems. The databases of the traditional grid and the variousinitiatives related to new technologies have given rise to many different management systems with several formats and different architectures. A heterogeneous data source integration system is necessary toupdate these systems for the new smart grid reality. Additionally, it is necessary to take advantage of theinformation smart grids provide. In this paper, the authors propose a heterogeneous data source integration based on IEC standards and metadata mining. Additionally, an automatic data mining framework isapplied to model the integrated information.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad TEC2013-40767-

ASSESSING FREEZING EFFECT ON KIWIFRUIT CULTIVARS AND MAPPING SUITABLE AREAS FOR GROWING THE CROP IN EASTERN TEXAS

Kiwifruit is a perennial vine originating from China where it has been grown for centuries. In the United States, green kiwifruit (Actinidia deliciosa) is primarily produced commercially in California. They are fuzzy, green fleshed and well known in the marketplace. Kiwifruit plants require low to moderate soil pH, adequate winter chilling and adequate precipitation to guarantee plant development and good fructification. Actinidia chinesis or golden kiwifruit are smooth skinned, feature golden flesh and are a more recent introduction into the global market. Kiwifruit crops have attributes that favor production in east Texas, including low pest problems, current long market window for the fruit, strong consumer acceptance and a growing marketplace. There are few kiwifruit study plots in Texas that will determine its adaptation in the region for commercial potential. In February 2021, Texas experienced a historic freezing event. Vines at evaluation plots were exposed to very low freezing temperatures, which could permanently damage the plants. This study covered the assessment of kiwifruit at five locations after freeze events from November 2020 to March 2021. The study indicated that different kiwifruit varieties experienced different responses to the freeze effect on plants. Green kiwifruit cultivars were more susceptible to the February freeze, thereby presenting more damage on plants than gold varieties. Also, the use of trunk protection in Hayward cultivar did not reduce plant damage. Another study, ‘Bruno’ rootstock had a different proportion of plant injury among study sites: Crockett, Nacogdoches, and Simonton (TX). A chilling hours map for east Texas counties was created using weather data from the past ten years. The map can be used as an auxiliary tool when deciding on cultivars according to their chill hour requirements. The suitability map to grow kiwifruit in the east exhibited a great portion of eastern Texas being optimal areas to grow kiwifruit. The suitability map is an additional resource to use in decision-making to grow the crop when in conjunction with other agricultural management

Analysis of Hybrid Soft and Hard Computing Techniques for Forex Monitoring Systems

In a universe with a single currency, there would be no foreign exchange market, no foreign exchange rates, and no foreign exchange. Over the past twenty-five years, the way the market has performed those tasks has changed enormously. The need for intelligent monitoring systems has become a necessity to keep track of the complex forex market. The vast currency market is a foreign concept to the average individual. However, once it is broken down into simple terms, the average individual can begin to understand the foreign exchange market and use it as a financial instrument for future investing. In this paper, we attempt to compare the performance of hybrid soft computing and hard computing techniques to predict the average monthly forex rates one month ahead. The soft computing models considered are a neural network trained by the scaled conjugate gradient algorithm and a neuro-fuzzy model implementing a Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy inference system. We also considered Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and a hybrid CART-MARS technique. We considered the exchange rates of Australian dollar with respect to US dollar, Singapore dollar, New Zealand dollar, Japanese yen and United Kingdom pounds. The models were trained using 70% of the data and remaining was used for testing and validation purposes. It is observed that the proposed hybrid models could predict the forex rates more accurately than all the techniques when applied individually. Empirical results also reveal that the hybrid hard computing approach also improved some of our previous work using a neuro-fuzzy approach

Statistical techniques vs. SEES algorithm : an application to a small business environment

The aim of this research is to compare the accuracy of a rule induction classifier system –Quinlan’s SEE5– with linear discriminant analysis and logit. The classification task chosen is the differentiation of the most efficient companies from the least efficient ones on the basis of a set of financial variables. The sample consists of a database containing the annual accounts of the companies located in the Principality of Asturias (Spain), which are mainly small businesses. The main results indicate that SEE5 outperforms logit, but it is not clearly better than discriminant analysis. However, SEE5 models suffer from bigger increases in error rates when tested with validation samples. Another interesting finding is that in SEE5 systems both the number of variables selected and the number of rules inferred grow when sample size increases.El objetivo de esta investigación es comparar la precisión de un sistema de clasificación por reglas inductivas (SEE5, de Quinlan) con discriminación de análisis y logística. La tarea de clasificación elegida es la diferenciación entre las compañías más y menos eficientes en base a una serie de variables financieras. La muestra consiste en una base de datos que contiene las cuentas anuales de las compañías localizadas en el Principado de Asturias (España), que mayormente se trata de negocios pequeños. Los principales resultados indican que SEE5 supera la logística, pero no es claramente mejor que un análisis discriminatorio. Sin embargo, los modelos SEE5 padecen un aumento en los ratios de error cuando se prueban con muestras de validación. Otro hallazgo interesante es que en los sistemas SEE5 tanto el número de variables seleccionadas como el número de reglas inferidas aumentan cuando el tamaño de la muestra es mayor

A Compact Evolutionary Interval-Valued Fuzzy Rule-Based Classification System for the Modeling and Prediction of Real-World Financial Applications With Imbalanced Data

The current financial crisis has stressed the need to obtain more accurate prediction models in order to decrease risk when investing money on economic opportunities. In addition, the transparency of the process followed to make the decisions in financial applications is becoming an important issue. Furthermore, there is a need to handle real-world imbalanced financial datasets without using sampling techniques that might introduce noise in the used data. In this paper, we present a compact evolutionary interval-valued fuzzy rule-based classification system, which is based on interval-valued fuzzy rule-based classification system with tuning and rule selection (IVTURS FA RC-HD ) for the modeling and prediction of real-world financial applications. This proposed system allows obtaining good prediction accuracies using a small set of short fuzzy rules implying a high degree of interpretability of the generated linguistic model. Furthermore, the proposed system deals with the financial imbalanced datasets with no need for any preprocessing or sampling method and, thus, avoiding the accidental introduction of noise in the data used in the learning process. The system is also provided with a mechanism to handle examples that are not covered by any fuzzy rule in the generated rule base. To test the quality of our proposal, we will present an experimental study including 11 real-world financial datasets. We will show that the proposed system outperforms the original C4.5 decision tree, type-1, and interval-valued fuzzy counterparts that use the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) to preprocess data and the original FURIA, which is a fuzzy approximative classifier. Furthermore, the proposed method enhances the results achieved by the cost-sensitive C4.5, and it gives competitive results when compared with FURIA using SMOTE, while our proposal avoids preprocessing techniques, and it provides interpretable models that allow obtaining more accurate results

A Compact Evolutionary Interval-Valued Fuzzy Rule-Based Classification System for the Modeling and Prediction of Real-World Financial Applications with Imbalanced Data

The current financial crisis has stressed the need of obtaining more accurate prediction models in order to decrease the risk when investing money on economic opportunities. In addition, the transparency of the process followed to make the decisions in financial applications is becoming an important issue. Furthermore, there is a need to handle the real-world imbalanced financial data sets without using sampling techniques which might introduce noise in the used data. In this paper, we present a compact evolutionary interval-valued fuzzy rule-based classification system, which is based on IVTURSFARC-HD (Interval-Valued fuzzy rulebased classification system with TUning and Rule Selection) [22]), for the modeling and prediction of real-world financial applications. This proposed system allows obtaining good predictions accuracies using a small set of short fuzzy rules implying a high degree of interpretability of the generated linguistic model. Furthermore, the proposed system deals with the financial imbalanced datasets with no need for any preprocessing or sampling method and thus avoiding the accidental introduction of noise in the data used in the learning process. The system is also provided with a mechanism to handle examples that are not covered by any fuzzy rule in the generated rule base. To test the quality of our proposal, we will present an experimental study including eleven realworld financial datasets. We will show that the proposed system outperforms the original C4.5 decision tree, type-1 and interval-valued fuzzy counterparts which use the SMOTE sampling technique to preprocess data and the original FURIA, which is a fuzzy approximative classifier. Furthermore, the proposed method enhances the results achieved by the cost sensitive C4.5 and it gives competitive results when compared with FURIA using SMOTE, while our proposal avoids pre-processing techniques and it provides interpretable models that allow obtaining more accurate results.Spanish Government TIN2011-28488 TIN2013-40765-

Selection of Projects for Project Portfolio Using Fuzzy TOPSIS and Machine Learning

Project portfolio management (PPM) is extremely important nowadays due to the increasing severe competitions, accelerated product developments, project complexity, uncertainty, and challenges from global competitors. Therefore, businesses involved in many (dozens or even hundreds) projects need to formulate tactics and strategies to secure firms’ competencies and, most importantly, increase their productivities. Under this globalization context, PPM is to opti-mize the value provided to the customers while minimizing risks and the resources committed to the projects, while critical success factors (CSFs) is applied to anticipate the project’s risk and financial value by early assessment thus to help from the organizational level to predict the per-formance. Despite its importance, the literature on PPM and CSFs at a project level is rather limited, which demands a more profound knowledge about the assessment, ranking, and prior-itization of projects in the early stage. This study seeks to address the following two research questions: Do CSFs vary according to the project category, and how a supportive method can be established to help portfolio managers to select the project for portfolio. As a result, this re-search focuses on the multi-project context in order to fill the above-mentioned research gaps. As the contributions of this study, this study intends to (1) verify the hypothesis that different project category has different CSFs, and (2) contribute to explore how machine learning technol-ogy can be utilized for project selection. Projektisalkun hallinta (PPM) on nykyään erittäin tärkeää lisääntyvien kovien kilpailujen, nopeutuneen tuotekehityksen, projektien monimutkaisuuden, epävarmuuden ja globaalien kilpailijoiden haasteiden vuoksi. Siksi moniin (kymmeniin tai jopa satoihin) hankkeisiin osallistuvien yritysten on laadittava taktiikat ja strategiat, joilla varmistetaan yritysten osaaminen ja mikä tärkeintä, lisää tuottavuuttaan. Tässä globalisaatiokehyksessä PPM: n on optimoitava asiakkaille tarjottu arvo minimoiden riskit ja hankkeisiin sitoutuvat resurssit, kun taas kriittisiä menestystekijöitä (CSF) käytetään ennakoimaan projektin riski ja taloudellinen arvo varhaisella arvioinnilla, jotta apua organisaatiotasolta suorituskyvyn ennustamiseksi. Tärkeydestään huolimatta kirjallisuus PPM: stä ja CSF: stä projektitasolla on melko rajallinen, mikä vaatii syvällisempää tietoa hankkeiden arvioinnista, luokittelusta ja ennakoinnista varhaisessa vaiheessa. Tässä tutkimuksessa pyritään käsittelemään kahta seuraavaa tutkimuskysymystä: vaihtelevatko CSF: t projektikategorian mukaan ja kuinka voidaan luoda tukeva menetelmä salkunhoitajien auttamiseksi valitsemaan projekti salkkuun. Tämän seurauksena tämä uudelleenhaku keskittyy moniprojektiyhteyteen edellä mainittujen tutkimuksen aukkojen täyttämiseksi. Tämän tutkimuksen myötä tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on (1) tarkistaa hypoteesi, että eri projektikategorioilla on erilaiset CSF: t, ja (2) myötävaikuttaa siihen, kuinka koneoppimisen tekniikkaa voidaan hyödyntää projektin valinnassa

Capturing Risk in Capital Budgeting

NPS NRP Technical ReportThis proposed research has the goal of proposing novel, reusable, extensible, adaptable, and comprehensive advanced analytical process and Integrated Risk Management to help the (DOD) with risk-based capital budgeting, Monte Carlo risk-simulation, predictive analytics, and stochastic optimization of acquisitions and programs portfolios with multiple competing stakeholders while subject to budgetary, risk, schedule, and strategic constraints. The research covers topics of traditional capital budgeting methodologies used in industry, including the market, cost, and income approaches, and explains how some of these traditional methods can be applied in the DOD by using DOD-centric non-economic, logistic, readiness, capabilities, and requirements variables. Stochastic portfolio optimization with dynamic simulations and investment efficient frontiers will be run for the purposes of selecting the best combination of programs and capabilities is also addressed, as are other alternative methods such as average ranking, risk metrics, lexicographic methods, PROMETHEE, ELECTRE, and others. The results include actionable intelligence developed from an analytically robust case study that senior leadership at the DOD may utilize to make optimal decisions. The main deliverables will be a detailed written research report and presentation brief on the approach of capturing risk and uncertainty in capital budgeting analysis. The report will detail the proposed methodology and applications, as well as a summary case study and examples of how the methodology can be applied.N8 - Integration of Capabilities & ResourcesThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.