An approach for uncertainty aggregation using generalised conjunction/disjunction aggregators

Decision Support Systems are often used in the area of system evaluation. The quality of the output of such a system is only as good as the quality of the data that is used as input. Uncertainty on data, if not taken into account, can lead to evaluation results that are not representative. In this paper, we propose a technique to extend Generalised Con- junction/Disjunction aggregators to deal with un- certainty in Decision Support Systems. We first de- fine the logic properties of uncertainty aggregation through reasoning on strict aggregators and after- wards extend this logic to partial aggregators

Multi crteria decision making and its applications : a literature review

This paper presents current techniques used in Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and their applications. Two basic approaches for MCDM, namely Artificial Intelligence MCDM (AIMCDM) and Classical MCDM (CMCDM) are discussed and investigated. Recent articles from international journals related to MCDM are collected and analyzed to find which approach is more common than the other in MCDM. Also, which area these techniques are applied to. Those articles are appearing in journals for the year 2008 only. This paper provides evidence that currently, both AIMCDM and CMCDM are equally common in MCDM

A framework for the selection of the right nuclear power plant

Civil nuclear reactors are used for the production of electrical energy. In the nuclear industry vendors propose several nuclear reactor designs with a size from 35–45 MWe up to 1600–1700 MWe. The choice of the right design is a multidimensional problem since a utility has to include not only financial factors as levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) and internal rate of return (IRR), but also the so called “external factors” like the required spinning reserve, the impact on local industry and the social acceptability. Therefore it is necessary to balance advantages and disadvantages of each design during the entire life cycle of the plant, usually 40–60 years. In the scientific literature there are several techniques for solving this multidimensional problem. Unfortunately it does not seem possible to apply these methodologies as they are, since the problem is too complex and it is difficult to provide consistent and trustworthy expert judgments. This paper fills the gap, proposing a two-step framework to choosing the best nuclear reactor at the pre-feasibility study phase. The paper shows in detail how to use the methodology, comparing the choice of a small-medium reactor (SMR) with a large reactor (LR), characterised, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (2006), by an electrical output respectively lower and higher than 700 MWe

A fuzzy multiobjective algorithm for multiproduct batch plant: Application to protein production

This paper addresses the problem of the optimal design of batch plants with imprecise demands and proposes an alternative treatment of the imprecision by using fuzzy concepts. For this purpose, we extended a multiobjective genetic algorithm (MOGA) developed in previousworks, taking into account simultaneously maximization of the net present value (NPV) and two other performance criteria, i.e. the production delay/advance and a flexibility criterion. The former is computed by comparing the fuzzy computed production time to a given fuzzy production time horizon and the latter is based on the additional fuzzy demand that the plant is able to produce. The methodology provides a set of scenarios that are helpful to the decision’s maker and constitutes a very promising framework for taken imprecision into account in new product development stage

Fuzzy sets and models of decision making

AbstractResults of research into the use of fuzzy sets for handling various forms of uncertainty in optimization problems related to the design and control of complex systems are presented. Much attention is given to considering the uncertainty of goals that is associated with a multicriteria character of many optimization problems. The application of a multicriteria approach is needed to solve 1.(1)|problems in which solution consequences cannot be estimated on the basis of a single criterion, that involves the necessity of analyzing a vector of criteria, and2.(2)|problems that may be considered on the basis of a single criterion but their unique solutions are not achieved because the uncertainty of information produces so-called decision uncertainty regions, and the application of additional criteria can serve as a convincing means to contract these regions.According to this, two classes of models (〈X, M〉 and 〈X, R〉 models) are considered with applying the Bellman-Zadeh approach and techniques of fuzzy preference relations to their analysis. The consideration of 〈X, R〉 models is associated with a general approach to solving a wide class of optimization problems with fuzzy coefficients. This approach consists in formulating and analyzing one and the same problem within the framework of interrelated models with constructing equivalent analogs with fuzzy coefficients in objective functions alone. It allows one to maximally cut off dominated alternatives. The subsequent contraction of the decision uncertainty region is associated with reduction of the problem to multicriteria decision making in a fuzzy environment with its analysis applying one of two techniques based on fuzzy preference relations. The results of the paper are of a universal character and are already being used to solve problems of power engineering

Improving the quality of the industrial enterprise management based on the network-centric approach

The article examines the network-centric approach to the industrial enterprise management to improve the ef ciency and effectiveness in the implementation of production plans and maximize responsiveness to customers. A network-centric management means the decentralized enterprise group management. A group means a set of enterprise divisions, which should solve by joint efforts a certain case that occurs in the production process. The network-centric management involves more delegation of authority to the lower elements of the enterprise’s organizational structure. The industrial enterprise is considered as a large complex system (production system) functioning and controlled amidst various types of uncertainty: information support uncertainty and goal uncertainty or multicriteria uncertainty. The information support uncertainty occurs because the complex system functioning always takes place in the context of incomplete and fuzzy information. Goal uncertainty or multicriteria uncertainty caused by a great number of goalsestablished for the production system. The network-centric management task de nition by the production system is formulated. The authors offer a mathematical model for optimal planning of consumers’ orders production with the participation of the main enterprise divisions. The methods of formalization of various types of uncertainty in production planning tasks are considered on the basis of the application of the fuzzy sets theory. An enterprise command center is offered as an effective tool for making management decisions by divisions. The article demonstrates that decentralized group management methods can improve the ef ciency and effectiveness of the implementation of production plans through the self-organization mechanisms of enterprise divisions.The work has been prepared with the financial support from the Russian Ministry of Education and Science (Contract No. 02.G25.31.0068 of 23.05.2013 as part of the measure to implement Decision of the Russian Government No. 218)