Economic analyses for the evaluation of is projects

Information system projects usually have numerous uncertainties and several conditions of risk that make their economic evaluation a challenging task. Each year, several information system projects are cancelled before completion as a result of budget overruns at a cost of several billions of dollars to industry. Although engineering economic analysis offers tools and techniques for evaluating risky projects, the tools are not enough to place information system projects on a safe budget/selection track. There is a need for an integrative economic analysis model that will account for the uncertainties in estimating project costs benefits and useful lives of uncertain and risky projects. The fuzzy set theory has the capability of representing vague data and allows mathematical operators and programming to be applied to the fuzzy domain. The theory is primarily concerned with quantifying the vagueness in human thoughts and perceptions. In this article, the economic evaluation of information system projects using fuzzy present value and fuzzy B/C ratio is analyzed. A numerical illustration is included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods

Fuzzy Set Ranking Methods and Multiple Expert Decision Making

The present report further investigates the multi-criteria decision making tool named Fuzzy Compromise Programming. Comparison of different fuzzy set ranking methods (required for processing fuzzy information) is performed. A complete sensitivity analysis concerning decision maker’s risk preferences was carried out for three water resources systems, and compromise solutions identified. Then, a weights sensitivity analysis was performed on one of the three systems to see whether the rankings would change in response to changing weights. It was found that this particular system was robust to the changes in weights. An inquiry was made into the possibility of modifying Fuzzy Compromise Programming to include participation of multiple decision makers or experts. This was accomplished by merging a technique known as Group Decision Making Under Fuzziness, with Fuzzy Compromise Programming. Modified technique provides support for the group decision making under multiple criteria in a fuzzy environment.https://ir.lib.uwo.ca/wrrr/1001/thumbnail.jp

Applications of fuzzy theories to multi-objective system optimization

Most of the computer aided design techniques developed so far deal with the optimization of a single objective function over the feasible design space. However, there often exist several engineering design problems which require a simultaneous consideration of several objective functions. This work presents several techniques of multiobjective optimization. In addition, a new formulation, based on fuzzy theories, is also introduced for the solution of multiobjective system optimization problems. The fuzzy formulation is useful in dealing with systems which are described imprecisely using fuzzy terms such as, 'sufficiently large', 'very strong', or 'satisfactory'. The proposed theory translates the imprecise linguistic statements and multiple objectives into equivalent crisp mathematical statements using fuzzy logic. The effectiveness of all the methodologies and theories presented is illustrated by formulating and solving two different engineering design problems. The first one involves the flight trajectory optimization and the main rotor design of helicopters. The second one is concerned with the integrated kinematic-dynamic synthesis of planar mechanisms. The use and effectiveness of nonlinear membership functions in fuzzy formulation is also demonstrated. The numerical results indicate that the fuzzy formulation could yield results which are qualitatively different from those provided by the crisp formulation. It is felt that the fuzzy formulation will handle real life design problems on a more rational basis

Life settlement pricing with fuzzy parameters

Existing literature asserts that the growth of life settlement (LS) markets, where they exist, is hampered by limited policyholder participation and suggests that to foster this growth appropriate pricing of LS transactions is crucial. The pricing of LSs relies on quantifying two key variables: the insured's mortality multiplier and the internal rate of return (IRR). However, the available information on these parameters is often scarce and vague. To address this issue, this article proposes a novel framework that models these variables using triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs). This modelling approach aligns with how mortality multiplier and IRR data are typically provided in insurance markets and has the advantage of offering a natural interpretation for practitioners. When both the mortality multiplier and the IRR are represented as TFNs, the resulting LS price becomes a FN that no longer retains the triangular shape. Therefore, the paper introduces three alternative triangular approximations to simplify computations and enhance interpretation of the price. Additionally, six criteria are proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of each approximation method. These criteria go beyond the typical approach of assessing the approximation quality to the FN itself. They also consider the usability and comprehensibility for financial analysts with no prior knowledge of FNs. In summary, the framework presented in this paper represents a significant advancement in LS pricing. By incorporating TFNs, offering several triangular approximations and proposing goodness criteria of them, it addresses the challenges posed by limited and vague data, while also considering the practical needs of industry practitioners

A fuzzy stochastic multi-criteria model for the selection of urban pervious pavements

Multi-criteria decision making methods (MCDM) have been widely used throughout the last years to assist project contractors in selection processes related to the construction field. Sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS) are an especially suitable discipline to implement these techniques, since they involve important impacts on each branch of sustainability: economy, environment and society. Considering that pervious pavements constitute an efficient solution to manage urban stormwater runoff as a source control system, this paper presents a multi-criteria approach based on the Integrated Value Model for Sustainable Assessments (MIVES) method to facilitate their proper selection. Given the lack of accurate information to shape the behavior of the alternatives regarding some of the criteria defining the decision-making environment, a series of variables are modeled by executing stochastic simulations based on the Monte Carlo methods. Additionally, a group of ten experts from various sectors related to water management was requested to provide their opinions about the importance of the set of selected criteria, according to the comparison levels of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). These judgments are converted into triangular fuzzy numbers, in order to capture the vagueness that human attitude entails when making judgments. A case of study in which the three major types of pervious pavements (porous asphalt, porous concrete and interlocking concrete pavers) are evaluated is presented to demonstrate the potential of the model

Pert using Fuzzy variables and probability distribution function randomly selected

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is widely used for project management in real world applications. The aim of this paper is to simulate and analyze a PERT network under conditions of uncertainty though a hybrid model. The basic assumption is that a project under extreme conditions of uncertainty can be satisfactorily modelled by using simple fuzzy linguistic variables to estimate activities durations, and a probability distribution function randomly selected in order to measure the activity times. Fuzzy linguistic expressions are used to estimate the activity time. Activity parameters are calculated by using basic operations between triangular fuzzy numbers and centroid method with classical Beta PERT definition. For each activity time a probability distribution function is randomly selected from a set of four possible distributions commonly cited in the literature. Hypothetical projects with 4, 40, 400 and 4000 activities using the proposed model are analyzed; the project duration is estimated through Monte Carlo Simulation. Finally, results are analyzed and compared with classical Beta PERT technique