Forward commodity trading with private information

We consider the use of forward contracts to reduce risk for firms operating in a spot market. Firms have private information on the distribution of prices in the spot market. We discuss different ways in which firms may agree on a bilateral forward contract: either through direct negotiation or through a broker. We introduce a form of supply-function equilibrium in which two firms each offer a supply function, and the clearing price and quantity for the forward contracts are determined from the intersection. In this context, a firm can use the offer of the other player to augment its own information about the future price

A Regulatory Retreat: Energy Market Exemption from Private Anti-Manipulation Actions Under the Commodity Exchange Act

In order to facilitate greater reform in energy markets, Dodd-Frank granted the CFTC wide-ranging powers as part of the greater mandate given to the CFTC in relation to OTC-swaps and the daily derivatives trading activity in commodities futures and options markets. As a result, Dodd-Frank subjected electricity market transactions—which traditionally occur under the oversight of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in markets organized around independent system operators and regional transmission organizations—to the anti-manipulation prohibitions of the Commodity Exchange Act. Thus, differently from FERC’s regime, the post-Dodd-Frank statutory framework opened the way for enforcement of market discipline in electricity markets through a private right of action under Section 22 of the CEA. This development drew strong opposition from the industry, and also caused a conflict between courts and the CFTC in the interpretation of the relevant law. In October of 2016, the CFTC stepped back by issuing a final exemptive order to the participants of seven national energy markets, which constitute almost the entire U.S. wholesale electricity market. The withdrawal of the private right of action conflicts with the position previously advocated by the CFTC itself. It also raises questions about the CFTC’s use of its exemptive powers, as the removal of a statutory right through agency rulemaking may potentially be in conflict with the text and statutory purpose of the CEA as amended by Dodd-Frank. The exemption not only removes an important tool in enforcing market discipline, but also has the potential to undermine the reform efforts in the transition of U.S. energy markets to a smart grid. This Note will provide a history of the developments that have unfolded since the enactment of Dodd-Frank in relation to the availability of a private right of action under the CEA in energy markets. The Note also analyzes commonly raised arguments against the availability of a private right of action and presents the various counter-arguments

Commodity Exchanges and the Privatization of the Agricultural Sector in the Commonwealth of Independent States—Needed Steps in Creating a Market Economy

Pre-revolutionary commodities exchanges in Russia and their extinguishment by the Bolsheviks are examined, and the role thereafter by Soviet central planners in the distribution, import and export of agricultural commodities is described. It is argued that the privatization process in the CIS must include incentives for the development of an exchange system for agricultural goods

Market conditions, trader types and price–volume relation in energy futures markets

We investigate the asymmetric relations between trading volume and price changes, and trading volume and price volatility of energy futures contracts across maturities and under different market conditions. Using a relatively long sample of daily observations, we examine whether the impact of trading volume on returns and volatility of futures contracts can be time-varying and dependent on the market condition. We differentiate the market condition based on the slope of the forward curve into backwardation and contango. The results indicate that trading volume and returns are positively related when the market is in backwardation and negatively related when the market is in contango. In addition, the positive relation between changes in trading volume and volatility of futures contracts seem to be stronger when the market is in backwardation than when it is in contango. Finally, the results indicate that, to a certain extent, trade participation and trading activities of agents in energy futures markets can be explained by the slope of the forward curve which reflects the market condition and sentiment

Imperfect Competition, Market Behavior, and Agricultural Trade Policy Analysis

International Relations/Trade,

Basics on commodities risk management for grains trading

The purpose of the article is to determine the kinds of risk groups existed on cereal market and presenting possibilities of limiting the undesirable phenomena. An issue appears: what way the subjects of cereal market, producers in particular, should alone neutralize the appearing risk, and when should expect support from the state institutions. More often financial instruments find the solution for agricultural hedgers. Derivatives, such as: forward, future and option contracts are transferring the price risk from producers to intermediaries of the market and are improving the flow of contracts on the cereal market

Commodity risk management and development

In 1995, 57 countries depended on three commodities for more than half their exports, reports UNCTAD. And commodities, fuels, grains, and oilseeds are important imports for several countries. The notorious volatility of commodity prices is a major source of instability and uncertainty in commodity-dependent countries, affecting governments, producers (farmers), traders, processors, and financial institutions. Further, commodity price instability has a negative impact on economic growth, income distribution, and poverty alleviation. Early attempts to deal with commodity price volatility relied on buffer stocks, buffer funds, government intervention in commodity markets, and international commodity agreements to stabilize prices. These were largely unsuccessful--sometimes spectacularly so. Buffer funds went bankrupt, commodity agreements were suspended, buffer stocks proved ineffective, and government intervention was both costlyand ineffective. As the poor performance of such stabilization schemes became more evident, academics and policymakers began distinguishing between programs that tried to alter price distribution (domestically or internationally) and programs that used market-based approaches for dealing with market uncertainty. This change in approach coincided with a significant rise in the use of market-based commodity risk management instruments--aided by the liberalization of markets, the lowering of trade and capital control barriers, and the globalization of commodity markets. by the mid-1990s, several governments, state companies, and private sector participants began using commodity derivatives markets to hedge their commodity price risks. Participation in those markets is growing, but important barriers to access remain including counterparty risk, problems small groups (such as farmers) have aggregating risks, basis risks (no correlation of local and international prices), no local reference prices, low liquidity, no derivatives markets for certain products, and low levels of know-how. International institutions, local governments, and the private sector could facilitate developing countries access to derivatives markets and the use of risk management tools to solve public sector problems.Economic Theory&Research,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Environmental Economics&Policies,Markets and Market Access,Labor Policies,Health Economics&Finance,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Access to Markets,Markets and Market Access

POLICY CONSIDERATIONS OF EMERGING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES

Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Contribution to Price Discovery in the Forest Product Market: Futures, Forwards, and Spot Markets

This research examines the lead-lag relationships between futures prices, prices from a cash forward market, and spot prices for two forest product markets. Results suggest that for 2x4 lumber, the forward market provides some level of price discovery, but futures play a dominant price discovery role for oriented strand board.Marketing,