Temperature time series forecasting in The Optimal Challenges in Irrigation (TO CHAIR)

Predicting and forecasting weather time series has always been a difficult field of research analysis with a very slow progress rate over the years. The main challenge in this project—The Optimal Challenges in Irrigation (TO CHAIR)—is to study how to manage irrigation problems as an optimal control problem: the daily irrigation problem of minimizing water consumption. For that it is necessary to estimate and forecast weather variables in real time in each monitoring area of irrigation. These time series present strong trends and high-frequency seasonality. How to best model and forecast these patterns has been a long-standing issue in time series analysis. This study presents a comparison of the forecasting performance of TBATS (Trigonometric Seasonal, Box-Cox Transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal Components) and regression with correlated errors models. These methods are chosen due to their ability to model trend and seasonal fluctuations present in weather data, particularly in dealing with time series with complex seasonal patterns (multiple seasonal patterns). The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of weather time series: minimum air temperature.publishe

New forecasting methods for hotel revenue management systems

An accurate forecasting module is a key element of any revenue management system. This module includes demand forecasting, which involves tasks of forecasting complex seasonal time series. The challenge of producing accurate demand forecasts requires the application of suitable forecasting methods to address that complexity. The aim of this paper is to evaluate a new innovation state space modeling framework, based on innovations approach, developed for forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns. This modeling framework provides an alternative to existing models of exponential smoothing, since it is capable of tackling seasonal complexities such a multiple seasonal periods and high frequency seasonality.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Encoding Seasonal Climate Predictions for Demand Forecasting with Modular Neural Network

Current time-series forecasting problems use short-term weather attributes as exogenous inputs. However, in specific time-series forecasting solutions (e.g., demand prediction in the supply chain), seasonal climate predictions are crucial to improve its resilience. Representing mid to long-term seasonal climate forecasts is challenging as seasonal climate predictions are uncertain, and encoding spatio-temporal relationship of climate forecasts with demand is complex. We propose a novel modeling framework that efficiently encodes seasonal climate predictions to provide robust and reliable time-series forecasting for supply chain functions. The encoding framework enables effective learning of latent representations -- be it uncertain seasonal climate prediction or other time-series data (e.g., buyer patterns) -- via a modular neural network architecture. Our extensive experiments indicate that learning such representations to model seasonal climate forecast results in an error reduction of approximately 13\% to 17\% across multiple real-world data sets compared to existing demand forecasting methods.Comment: 15 page

Forecasting Time-Series with Correlated Seasonality

A new approach is proposed for forecasting a time series with multiple seasonal patterns. A state space model is developed for the series using the single source of error approach which enables us to develop explicit models for both additive and multiplicative seasonality. Parameter estimates may be obtained using methods adapted from general exponential smoothing, although the Kalman filter may also be used. The proposed model is used to examine hourly and daily patterns in hourly data for both utility loads and traffic flows. Our formulation provides a model for several existing seasonal methods and also provides new options, which result in superior forecasting performance over a range of prediction horizons. The approach is likely to be useful in a wide range of applications involving both high and low frequency data, and it handles missing values in a straightforward manner.Exponential smoothing; Holt-Winters; Seasonality; Structural time series model

Advances in forecasting with neural networks? Empirical evidence from the NN3 competition on time series prediction

This paper reports the results of the NN3 competition, which is a replication of the M3 competition with an extension of the competition towards neural network (NN) and computational intelligence (CI) methods, in order to assess what progress has been made in the 10 years since the M3 competition. Two masked subsets of the M3 monthly industry data, containing 111 and 11 empirical time series respectively, were chosen, controlling for multiple data conditions of time series length (short/long), data patterns (seasonal/non-seasonal) and forecasting horizons (short/medium/long). The relative forecasting accuracy was assessed using the metrics from the M3, together with later extensions of scaled measures, and non-parametric statistical tests. The NN3 competition attracted 59 submissions from NN, CI and statistics, making it the largest CI competition on time series data. Its main findings include: (a) only one NN outperformed the damped trend using the sMAPE, but more contenders outperformed the AutomatANN of the M3; (b) ensembles of CI approaches performed very well, better than combinations of statistical methods; (c) a novel, complex statistical method outperformed all statistical and Cl benchmarks; and (d) for the most difficult subset of short and seasonal series, a methodology employing echo state neural networks outperformed all others. The NN3 results highlight the ability of NN to handle complex data, including short and seasonal time series, beyond prior expectations, and thus identify multiple avenues for future research. (C) 2011 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

A time-series forecasting performance comparison for neural networks with state space and ARIMA models

This research focuses on the development of an automated forecasting procedure that implement State Space (SS), Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Neural Networks (NN) to identify the best forecasting strategy for time series with numerous patterns. The proposed approach is applied on multiple time series exhibiting different series patterns from the M4 competition. Based on our study, the performance of ARIMA models showed superior results when compared to the ETS performance for seasonal data. In addition, NN and ARIMA showed a higher performance for cyclical and non-stationary data. NN performance was competitive in all types of data patterns. ARIMA stepwise selection procedure proved to be the most accurate in general for all the series. This delimited development is part of a comprehensive application that will encompass a dashboard tool designed to automatize forecasting procedures of different types of time series presented in the industry Keyword