Evolving the Curve

Evolutionary algorithms are used to generate personal contact networks, modelling human populations, that are most likely to match a given epidemic profile. The Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model is used and also expanded upon to allow for an extended period of infection, termed the SIIR model. The networks generated for each of these models are thoroughly evaluated for their ability to match nine different epidemic profiles. The addition of the SIIR model showed that the model of infection has an impact on the networks generated. For the SIR and SIIR models, these differences were relatively minor in most cases.Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canad

Clustered marginalization of minorities during social transitions induced by co-evolution of behaviour and network structure

Large-scale transitions in societies are associated with both individual behavioural change and restructuring of the social network. These two factors have often been considered independently, yet recent advances in social network research challenge this view. Here we show that common features of societal marginalization and clustering emerge naturally during transitions in a co-evolutionary adaptive network model. This is achieved by explicitly considering the interplay between individual interaction and a dynamic network structure in behavioural selection. We exemplify this mechanism by simulating how smoking behaviour and the network structure get reconfigured by changing social norms. Our results are consistent with empirical findings: The prevalence of smoking was reduced, remaining smokers were preferentially connected among each other and formed increasingly marginalised clusters. We propose that self-amplifying feedbacks between individual behaviour and dynamic restructuring of the network are main drivers of the transition. This generative mechanism for co-evolution of individual behaviour and social network structure may apply to a wide range of examples beyond smoking.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figure

Griffiths phases in infinite-dimensional, non-hierarchical modular networks

Griffiths phases (GPs), generated by the heterogeneities on modular networks, have recently been suggested to provide a mechanism, rid of fine parameter tuning, to explain the critical behavior of complex systems. One conjectured requirement for systems with modular structures was that the network of modules must be hierarchically organized and possess finite dimension. We investigate the dynamical behavior of an activity spreading model, evolving on heterogeneous random networks with highly modular structure and organized non-hierarchically. We observe that loosely coupled modules act as effective rare-regions, slowing down the extinction of activation. As a consequence, we find extended control parameter regions with continuously changing dynamical exponents for single network realizations, preserved after finite size analyses, as in a real GP. The avalanche size distributions of spreading events exhibit robust power-law tails. Our findings relax the requirement of hierarchical organization of the modular structure, which can help to rationalize the criticality of modular systems in the framework of GPs.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figure

Representation for Evolution of Epidemic Models

Creating a representation capable of generating personal contact networks that are most likely to exhibit specific epidemic behavior is difficult due to the inherit volatility of an epidemic and the numerous parameters accompanying the problem. To surpass these hurdles, evolutionary algorithms are used to create a generative solution which generates personal contact networks, modeling human populations, to satisfy the epidemic duration and epidemic profile matching problems. This representation is entitled the Local THADS-N representation. Two new operators are added to the original THADS-N system, and tested with a traditional parameter sweep and a parameter selection method known as point packing on nine epidemic profiles. Additionally, a new epidemic model is implemented in order to allow for lost immunity within a population thus increasing the length of an epidemic.Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC

Cooperation in an Evolutionary Prisoner\u27s Dilemma on Networks with Degree-Degree Correlations

We study the effects of degree-degree correlations on the success of cooperation in an evolutionary prisoner\u27s dilemma played on a random network. When degree-degree correlations are not present, the standardized variance of the network\u27s degree distribution has been shown to be an accurate analytical measure of network heterogeneity that can be used to predict the success of cooperation. In this paper, we use a local-mechanism interpretation of standardized variance to give a generalization to graphs with degree-degree correlations. Two distinct mechanisms are shown to influence cooperation levels on these types of networks. The first is an intrinsic measurement of base-line heterogeneity coming from the network\u27s degree distribution. The second is the increase in heterogeneity coming from the degree-degree correlations present in the network. A strong linear relationship is found between these two parameters and the average cooperation level in an evolutionary prisoner\u27s dilemma on a network

Phylogenetic Networks and Parameters Inferred from HIV Nucleotide Sequences of High-Risk and General Population Groups in Uganda:Implications for Epidemic Control

Phylogenetic inference is useful in characterising HIV transmission networks and assessing where prevention is likely to have the greatest impact. However, estimating parameters that influence the network structure is still scarce, but important in evaluating determinants of HIV spread. We analyzed 2017 HIV pol sequences (728 Lake Victoria fisherfolk communities (FFCs), 592 female sex workers (FSWs) and 697 general population (GP)) to identify transmission networks on Maximum Likelihood (ML) phylogenetic trees and refined them using time-resolved phylogenies. Network generative models were fitted to the observed degree distributions and network parameters, and corrected Akaike Information Criteria and Bayesian Information Criteria values were estimated. 347 (17.2%) HIV sequences were linked on ML trees (maximum genetic distance ≤4.5%, ≥95% bootstrap support) and, of these, 303 (86.7%) that consisted of pure A1 (n = 168) and D (n = 135) subtypes were analyzed in BEAST v1.8.4. The majority of networks (at least 40%) were found at a time depth of ≤5 years. The waring and yule models fitted best networks of FFCs and FSWs respectively while the negative binomial model fitted best networks in the GP. The network structure in the HIV-hyperendemic FFCs is likely to be scale-free and shaped by preferential attachment, in contrast to the GP. The findings support the targeting of interventions for FFCs in a timely manner for effective epidemic control. Interventions ought to be tailored according to the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in the target population and understanding the network structure is critical in ensuring the success of HIV prevention programs

Data based identification and prediction of nonlinear and complex dynamical systems

We thank Dr. R. Yang (formerly at ASU), Dr. R.-Q. Su (formerly at ASU), and Mr. Zhesi Shen for their contributions to a number of original papers on which this Review is partly based. This work was supported by ARO under Grant No. W911NF-14-1-0504. W.-X. Wang was also supported by NSFC under Grants No. 61573064 and No. 61074116, as well as by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, Beijing Nova Programme.Peer reviewedPostprin

Fitting stochastic epidemic models to gene genealogies using linear noise approximation

Phylodynamics is a set of population genetics tools that aim at reconstructing demographic history of a population based on molecular sequences of individuals sampled from the population of interest. One important task in phylodynamics is to estimate changes in (effective) population size. When applied to infectious disease sequences such estimation of population size trajectories can provide information about changes in the number of infections. To model changes in the number of infected individuals, current phylodynamic methods use non-parametric approaches, parametric approaches, and stochastic modeling in conjunction with likelihood-free Bayesian methods. The first class of methods yields results that are hard-to-interpret epidemiologically. The second class of methods provides estimates of important epidemiological parameters, such as infection and removal/recovery rates, but ignores variation in the dynamics of infectious disease spread. The third class of methods is the most advantageous statistically, but relies on computationally intensive particle filtering techniques that limits its applications. We propose a Bayesian model that combines phylodynamic inference and stochastic epidemic models, and achieves computational tractability by using a linear noise approximation (LNA) --- a technique that allows us to approximate probability densities of stochastic epidemic model trajectories. LNA opens the door for using modern Markov chain Monte Carlo tools to approximate the joint posterior distribution of the disease transmission parameters and of high dimensional vectors describing unobserved changes in the stochastic epidemic model compartment sizes (e.g., numbers of infectious and susceptible individuals). We apply our estimation technique to Ebola genealogies estimated using viral genetic data from the 2014 epidemic in Sierra Leone and Liberia.Comment: 43 pages, 6 figures in the main tex

Epidemic Simulation and Mitigation via Evolutionary Computation

A global pandemic remains a public health event that presents a unique and unpredictable challenge for those making health related decisions and the populations who experience the virus. Though a pandemic also provides the opportunity for researchers and health administrations around the world to mobilize in the fields of epidemiology, computer science, and mathematics to generate epidemic models, vaccines, and vaccination strategies to mitigate unfavourable outcomes. To this end, a generative representation to create personal contact networks, representing the social connections within a population, known as the Local THADS-N generative representation is introduced and expanded upon. This representation uses an evolutionary algorithm and is modified to include new local edge operations improving the performance of the system across several test problems. These problems include an epidemic's duration, spread through a population, and closeness to past epidemic behaviour. The system is further developed to represent sub-communities known as districts, better articulating epidemics spreading within and between neighbourhoods. In addition, the representation is used to simulate four competing vaccination strategies in preparation for iterative vaccine deployment amongst a population, an inevitability when considering the lag inherent to developing vaccines. Finally, the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model of infection used by the system is expanded in preparation for adding an asymptomatic state of infection as seen within the COVID-19 pandemic