Best Practices and Methodological Guidelines for Conducting Gas Risk Assessments

The EC Regulation concerning measures to safeguard security of gas supply (EC/994/2010) requires member states to make a full assessment of the risks affecting the security of gas supply. According to Article 9, this risk assessment must: (a) use the infrastructure and supply standards (articles 6 and 8); (b) take into account all relevant national and regional circumstances; (c) run various disruption scenarios; (d) identify the interaction and correlation of risks with other Member States. (e) take into account the maximal interconnection capacity of each border entry and exit point. The objective of this report is to provide guidance and advice for performing risk assessments. It will do so by first providing a literature review, and then by proposing a basic structure for undertaking a gas security risk assessment, in accordance with best practices and standard procedures found in risk management.JRC.F.3-Energy securit

Uncertainty quantification for safety verification applications in nuclear power plants

There is an increasing interest in computational reactor safety analysis to systematically replace the conservative calculations by best estimate calculations augmented by quantitative uncertainty analysis methods. This has been necessitated by recent regulatory requirements that have permitted the use of such methods in reactor safety analysis. Stochastic uncertainty quantification methods have shown great promise, as they are better suited to capture the complexities in real engineering problems. This study proposes a framework for performing uncertainty quantification based on the stochastic approach, which can be applied to enhance safety analysis. Additionally, risk level has increased with the degradation of Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) equipment and instrumentation. In order to achieve NPP safety, it is important to continuously evaluate risk for all potential hazards and fault propagation scenarios and map protection layers to fault / failure / hazard propagation scenarios to be able to evaluate and verify safety level during NPP operation. In this study, the Fault Semantic Network (FSN) methodology is proposed. This involved the development of static and dynamic fault semantic network (FSN) to model possible fault propagation scenarios and the interrelationships among associated process variables. The proposed method was demonstrated by its application to two selected case studies. The use of FSN is essential for fault detection, understanding fault propagation scenarios and to aid in the prevention of catastrophic events. Two transient scenarios were simulated with a best estimate thermal hydraulic code, CATHENA. Stochastic uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analyses were performed using the OPENCOSSAN software which is based on the Monte Carlo method. The effect of uncertainty in input parameters were investigated by analyzing the probability distribution of output parameters. The first four moments (mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis) of the output parameters were computed and analyzed. The uncertainty in output pressure was 0.61% and 0.57% was found for the mass flow rate in the Edward???s blowdown transient. An uncertainty of 0.087% was obtained for output pressure and 0.048% for fuel pin temperature in the RD-14 test case. These results are expected to be useful for providing insight into safety margins related to safety analysis and verification

Dynamic risk assessment of process operations

Process engineering systems have become increasingly complex and more vulnerable to potential accidents. The risks posed by these systems are alarming and worrisome. The operation of these complex process engineering systems requires a high level of understanding both from the operational as well as the safety perspective. This study focuses on dynamic risk assessment and management of complex process engineering systems’ operations. To reduce risk posed by process systems, there is a need to develop process accident models capable of capturing system dynamics in real-time. This thesis presents a set of predictive process accident models developed over four years. It is prepared in manuscript style and consists of nine chapters, five of which are published in peer reviewed journals. A dynamic operational risk management tool for process systems is developed, considering evolving process conditions. The obvious advantage of the developed methodologies is that it dynamically captures the real time changes occurring in the process operations. The real time risk profile provided by the methodologies developed serve as performance indicator for operational decision making. The research has made contributions on the following topics: (a) process accident model considering dependency among contributory factors, (b) dynamic safety analysis of process systems using a nonlinear and non-sequential accident model, (c) dynamic failure analysis of process systems using principal component analysis and a Bayesian network, (d) dynamic failure analysis of process systems using a neural network and (e) an integrated approach for dynamic economic risk assessment of process systems

The Risk Analysis Controversy: An Institutional Perspective

Risk analysis has generated considerable controversy in recent years as to its meaning with respect to societal decision making. The papers in this book highlight different aspects of the risk debate. In particular, confidence in expert statements on risk has diminished and there has been an increasing recognition of the difference between analysis of the risk associated with an event and people's preferences/values. These concerns are articulated in the papers and discussions contained here. The volume does not provide answers to the dilemma facing society but rather raises a set of questions which need to be considered

Systems Engineering: Availability and Reliability

Current trends in Industry 4.0 are largely related to issues of reliability and availability. As a result of these trends and the complexity of engineering systems, research and development in this area needs to focus on new solutions in the integration of intelligent machines or systems, with an emphasis on changes in production processes aimed at increasing production efficiency or equipment reliability. The emergence of innovative technologies and new business models based on innovation, cooperation networks, and the enhancement of endogenous resources is assumed to be a strong contribution to the development of competitive economies all around the world. Innovation and engineering, focused on sustainability, reliability, and availability of resources, have a key role in this context. The scope of this Special Issue is closely associated to that of the ICIE’2020 conference. This conference and journal’s Special Issue is to present current innovations and engineering achievements of top world scientists and industrial practitioners in the thematic areas related to reliability and risk assessment, innovations in maintenance strategies, production process scheduling, management and maintenance or systems analysis, simulation, design and modelling

Expanding the Horizons of Manufacturing: Towards Wide Integration, Smart Systems and Tools

This research topic aims at enterprise-wide modeling and optimization (EWMO) through the development and application of integrated modeling, simulation and optimization methodologies, and computer-aided tools for reliable and sustainable improvement opportunities within the entire manufacturing network (raw materials, production plants, distribution, retailers, and customers) and its components. This integrated approach incorporates information from the local primary control and supervisory modules into the scheduling/planning formulation. That makes it possible to dynamically react to incidents that occur in the network components at the appropriate decision-making level, requiring fewer resources, emitting less waste, and allowing for better responsiveness in changing market requirements and operational variations, reducing cost, waste, energy consumption and environmental impact, and increasing the benefits. More recently, the exploitation of new technology integration, such as through semantic models in formal knowledge models, allows for the capture and utilization of domain knowledge, human knowledge, and expert knowledge toward comprehensive intelligent management. Otherwise, the development of advanced technologies and tools, such as cyber-physical systems, the Internet of Things, the Industrial Internet of Things, Artificial Intelligence, Big Data, Cloud Computing, Blockchain, etc., have captured the attention of manufacturing enterprises toward intelligent manufacturing systems

4th International Probabilistic Workshop: 12th-13th October 2006, Berlin, BAM (Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing)

Die heutige Welt der Menschen wird durch große Dynamik geprägt. Eine Vielzahl verschiedener Prozesse entfaltet sich parallel und teilweise auf unsichtbare Weise miteinander verbunden. Nimmt man z.B. den Prozess der Globalisierung: Hier erleben wir ein exponentielles Wachstum der internationalen Verknüpfungen von der Ebene einzelner Menschen und bis zur Ebene der Kulturen. Solche Verknüpfungen führen uns zum Begriff der Komplexität. Diese wird oft als Produkt der Anzahl der Elemente eines Systems mal Umfang der Verknüpfungen im System verstanden. In anderen Worten, die Welt wird zunehmend komplexer, denn die Verknüpfungen nehmen zu. Komplexität wiederum ist ein Begriff für etwas unverstandenes, unkontrollierbares, etwas unbestimmtes. Genau wie bei einem Menschen: Aus einer Zelle wächst ein Mensch, dessen Verhalten wir im Detail nur schwer vorhersagen können. Immerhin besitzt sein Gehirn 1011 Elemente (Zellen). Wenn also diese dynamischen sozialen Prozesse zu höherer Komplexität führen, müssen wir auch mehr Unbestimmtheit erwarten. Es bleibt zu Hoffen, dass die Unbestimmtheit nicht existenzielle Grundlagen betrifft. Was die Komplexität der Technik angeht, so versucht man hier im Gegensatz zu den gesellschaftlichen Unsicherheiten die Unsicherheiten zu erfassen und gezielt mit ihnen umzugehen. Das gilt für alle Bereiche, ob nun Naturgefahrenmanagement, beim Bau und Betrieb von Kernkraftwerken, im Bauwesen oder in der Schifffahrt. Und so verschieden diese Fachgebiete auch scheinen mögen, die an diesem Symposium teilnehmen: Sie haben erkannt, das verantwortungsvoller Umgang mit Technik einer Berücksichtigung der Unbestimmtheit bedarf. Soweit sind wir in gesellschaftlichen Prozessen noch nicht. Wünschenswert wäre, dass in einigen Jahren nicht nur Bauingenieure, Maschinenbauer, Mathematiker oder Schiffsbauer an einem solchen Probabilistik- Symposium teilnehmen, sondern auch Soziologen, Politiker oder Manager... (aus dem Vorwort) --- HINWEIS: Das Volltextdokument besteht aus einzelnen Beiträgen mit separater Seitenzählung.PREFACE: The world today is shaped by high dynamics. Multitude of processes evolves parallel and partly connected invisible. For example, the globalisation is such a process. Here one can observe the exponential growing of connections form the level of single humans to the level of cultures. Such connections guide as to the term complexity. Complexity is often understood as product of the number of elements and the amount of connections in the system. In other words, the world is going more complex, if the connections increase. Complexity itself is a term for a system, which is not fully understood, which is partly uncontrollable and indeterminated: exactly as humans. Growing from a single cell, the humans will show latter a behaviour, which we can not predict in detail. After all, the human brain consists of 1011 elements (cells). If the social dynamical processes yield to more complexity, we have to accept more indetermination. Well, one has to hope, that such an indetermination does not affect the basic of human existence. If we look at the field of technology, we can detect, that here indetermination or uncertainty is often be dealt with explicitly. This is valid for natural risk management, for nuclear engineering, civil engineering or for the design of ships. And so different the fields are which contribute to this symposium for all is valid: People working in this field have realised, that a responsible usage of technology requires consideration of indetermination and uncertainty. This level is not yet reached in the social sciences. It is the wish of the organisers of this symposium, that not only civil engineers, mechanical engineers, mathematicians, ship builders take part in this symposium, but also sociologists, managers and even politicians. Therefore there is still a great opportunity to grow for this symposium. Indetermination does not have to be negative: it can also be seen as chance

Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World

The contributions cover a wide range of methodologies and application areas for safety and reliability that contribute to safe societies in a changing world. These methodologies and applications include: - foundations of risk and reliability assessment and management - mathematical methods in reliability and safety - risk assessment - risk management - system reliability - uncertainty analysis - digitalization and big data - prognostics and system health management - occupational safety - accident and incident modeling - maintenance modeling and applications - simulation for safety and reliability analysis - dynamic risk and barrier management - organizational factors and safety culture - human factors and human reliability - resilience engineering - structural reliability - natural hazards - security - economic analysis in risk managemen

Training of Crisis Mappers and Map Production from Multi-sensor Data: Vernazza Case Study (Cinque Terre National Park, Italy)

This aim of paper is to presents the development of a multidisciplinary project carried out by the cooperation between Politecnico di Torino and ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action). The goal of the project was the training in geospatial data acquiring and processing for students attending Architecture and Engineering Courses, in order to start up a team of "volunteer mappers". Indeed, the project is aimed to document the environmental and built heritage subject to disaster; the purpose is to improve the capabilities of the actors involved in the activities connected in geospatial data collection, integration and sharing. The proposed area for testing the training activities is the Cinque Terre National Park, registered in the World Heritage List since 1997. The area was affected by flood on the 25th of October 2011. According to other international experiences, the group is expected to be active after emergencies in order to upgrade maps, using data acquired by typical geomatic methods and techniques such as terrestrial and aerial Lidar, close-range and aerial photogrammetry, topographic and GNSS instruments etc.; or by non conventional systems and instruments such us UAV, mobile mapping etc. The ultimate goal is to implement a WebGIS platform to share all the data collected with local authorities and the Civil Protectio