Analyzing Granger causality in climate data with time series classification methods

Attribution studies in climate science aim for scientifically ascertaining the influence of climatic variations on natural or anthropogenic factors. Many of those studies adopt the concept of Granger causality to infer statistical cause-effect relationships, while utilizing traditional autoregressive models. In this article, we investigate the potential of state-of-the-art time series classification techniques to enhance causal inference in climate science. We conduct a comparative experimental study of different types of algorithms on a large test suite that comprises a unique collection of datasets from the area of climate-vegetation dynamics. The results indicate that specialized time series classification methods are able to improve existing inference procedures. Substantial differences are observed among the methods that were tested

Enhancing credit card fraud detection: an ensemble machine learning approach

In the era of digital advancements, the escalation of credit card fraud necessitates the development of robust and efficient fraud detection systems. This paper delves into the application of machine learning models, specifically focusing on ensemble methods, to enhance credit card fraud detection. Through an extensive review of existing literature, we identified limitations in current fraud detection technologies, including issues like data imbalance, concept drift, false positives/negatives, limited generalisability, and challenges in real-time processing. To address some of these shortcomings, we propose a novel ensemble model that integrates a Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Random Forest (RF), Bagging, and Boosting classifiers. This ensemble model tackles the dataset imbalance problem associated with most credit card datasets by implementing under-sampling and the Synthetic Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) on some machine learning algorithms. The evaluation of the model utilises a dataset comprising transaction records from European credit card holders, providing a realistic scenario for assessment. The methodology of the proposed model encompasses data pre-processing, feature engineering, model selection, and evaluation, with Google Colab computational capabilities facilitating efficient model training and testing. Comparative analysis between the proposed ensemble model, traditional machine learning methods, and individual classifiers reveals the superior performance of the ensemble in mitigating challenges associated with credit card fraud detection. Across accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score metrics, the ensemble outperforms existing models. This paper underscores the efficacy of ensemble methods as a valuable tool in the battle against fraudulent transactions. The findings presented lay the groundwork for future advancements in the development of more resilient and adaptive fraud detection systems, which will become crucial as credit card fraud techniques continue to evolve

Enhancing Credit Card Fraud Detection: An Ensemble Machine Learning Approach

In the era of digital advancements, the escalation of credit card fraud necessitates the development of robust and efficient fraud detection systems. This paper delves into the application of machine learning models, specifically focusing on ensemble methods, to enhance credit card fraud detection. Through an extensive review of existing literature, we identified limitations in current fraud detection technologies, including issues like data imbalance, concept drift, false positives/negatives, limited generalisability, and challenges in real-time processing. To address some of these shortcomings, we propose a novel ensemble model that integrates a Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Random Forest (RF), Bagging, and Boosting classifiers. This ensemble model tackles the dataset imbalance problem associated with most credit card datasets by implementing under-sampling and the Synthetic Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) on some machine learning algorithms. The evaluation of the model utilises a dataset comprising transaction records from European credit card holders, providing a realistic scenario for assessment. The methodology of the proposed model encompasses data pre-processing, feature engineering, model selection, and evaluation, with Google Colab computational capabilities facilitating efficient model training and testing. Comparative analysis between the proposed ensemble model, traditional machine learning methods, and individual classifiers reveals the superior performance of the ensemble in mitigating challenges associated with credit card fraud detection. Across accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score metrics, the ensemble outperforms existing models. This paper underscores the efficacy of ensemble methods as a valuable tool in the battle against fraudulent transactions. The findings presented lay the groundwork for future advancements in the development of more resilient and adaptive fraud detection systems, which will become crucial as credit card fraud techniques continue to evolve

Program & Abstracts, 6th Annual Research Day (2019)

Program and abstracts from the Faculty of Science and Technology 6th Annual Research Day (2019). The research presented here encompasses both independent research projects and research in the classroom. In this volume you will find 82 abstracts authored by MRU students covering with a variety of disciplines including Biology, Chemistry, Geology, Geography, Environmental Sciences, Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science. This compilation is a testimony to our students’ hard work, and their professors’ diligent guidance

Optimization for Probabilistic Machine Learning

We have access to great variety of datasets more than any time in the history. Everyday, more data is collected from various natural resources and digital platforms. Great advances in the area of machine learning research in the past few decades have relied strongly on availability of these datasets. However, analyzing them imposes significant challenges that are mainly due to two factors. First, the datasets have complex structures with hidden interdependencies. Second, most of the valuable datasets are high dimensional and are largely scaled. The main goal of a machine learning framework is to design a model that is a valid representative of the observations and develop a learning algorithm to make inference about unobserved or latent data based on the observations. Discovering hidden patterns and inferring latent characteristics in such datasets is one of the greatest challenges in the area of machine learning research. In this dissertation, I will investigate some of the challenges in modeling and algorithm design, and present my research results on how to overcome these obstacles. Analyzing data generally involves two main stages. The first stage is designing a model that is flexible enough to capture complex variation and latent structures in data and is robust enough to generalize well to the unseen data. Designing an expressive and interpretable model is one of crucial objectives in this stage. The second stage involves training learning algorithm on the observed data and measuring the accuracy of model and learning algorithm. This stage usually involves an optimization problem whose objective is to tune the model to the training data and learn the model parameters. Finding global optimal or sufficiently good local optimal solution is one of the main challenges in this step. Probabilistic models are one of the best known models for capturing data generating process and quantifying uncertainties in data using random variables and probability distributions. They are powerful models that are shown to be adaptive and robust and can scale well to large datasets. However, most probabilistic models have a complex structure. Training them could become challenging commonly due to the presence of intractable integrals in the calculation. To remedy this, they require approximate inference strategies that often results in non-convex optimization problems. The optimization part ensures that the model is the best representative of data or data generating process. The non-convexity of an optimization problem take away the general guarantee on finding a global optimal solution. It will be shown later in this dissertation that inference for a significant number of probabilistic models require solving a non-convex optimization problem. One of the well-known methods for approximate inference in probabilistic modeling is variational inference. In the Bayesian setting, the target is to learn the true posterior distribution for model parameters given the observations and prior distributions. The main challenge involves marginalization of all the other variables in the model except for the variable of interest. This high-dimensional integral is generally computationally hard, and for many models there is no known polynomial time algorithm for calculating them exactly. Variational inference deals with finding an approximate posterior distribution for Bayesian models where finding the true posterior distribution is analytically or numerically impossible. It assumes a family of distribution for the estimation, and finds the closest member of that family to the true posterior distribution using a distance measure. For many models though, this technique requires solving a non-convex optimization problem that has no general guarantee on reaching a global optimal solution. This dissertation presents a convex relaxation technique for dealing with hardness of the optimization involved in the inference. The proposed convex relaxation technique is based on semidefinite optimization that has a general applicability to polynomial optimization problem. I will present theoretical foundations and in-depth details of this relaxation in this work. Linear dynamical systems represent the functionality of many real-world physical systems. They can describe the dynamics of a linear time-varying observation which is controlled by a controller unit with quadratic cost function objectives. Designing distributed and decentralized controllers is the goal of many of these systems, which computationally, results in a non-convex optimization problem. In this dissertation, I will further investigate the issues arising in this area and develop a convex relaxation framework to deal with the optimization challenges. Setting the correct number of model parameters is an important aspect for a good probabilistic model. If there are only a few parameters, model may lack capturing all the essential relations and components in the observations while too many parameters may cause significant complications in learning or overfit to the observations. Non-parametric models are suitable techniques to deal with this issue. They allow the model to learn the appropriate number of parameters to describe the data and make predictions. In this dissertation, I will present my work on designing Bayesian non-parametric models as powerful tools for learning representations of data. Moreover, I will describe the algorithm that we derived to efficiently train the model on the observations and learn the number of model parameters. Later in this dissertation, I will present my works on designing probabilistic models in combination with deep learning methods for representing sequential data. Sequential datasets comprise a significant portion of resources in the area of machine learning research. Designing models to capture dependencies in sequential datasets are of great interest and have a wide variety of applications in engineering, medicine and statistics. Recent advances in deep learning research has shown exceptional promises in this area. However, they lack interpretability in their general form. To remedy this, I will present my work on mixing probabilistic models with neural network models that results in better performance and expressiveness of the results

Active Information Acquisition With Mobile Robots

The recent proliferation of sensors and robots has potential to transform fields as diverse as environmental monitoring, security and surveillance, localization and mapping, and structure inspection. One of the great technical challenges in these scenarios is to control the sensors and robots in order to extract accurate information about various physical phenomena autonomously. The goal of this dissertation is to provide a unified approach for active information acquisition with a team of sensing robots. We formulate a decision problem for maximizing relevant information measures, constrained by the motion capabilities and sensing modalities of the robots, and focus on the design of a scalable control strategy for the robot team. The first part of the dissertation studies the active information acquisition problem in the special case of linear Gaussian sensing and mobility models. We show that the classical principle of separation between estimation and control holds in this case. It enables us to reduce the original stochastic optimal control problem to a deterministic version and to provide an optimal centralized solution. Unfortunately, the complexity of obtaining the optimal solution scales exponentially with the length of the planning horizon and the number of robots. We develop approximation algorithms to manage the complexity in both of these factors and provide theoretical performance guarantees. Applications in gas concentration mapping, joint localization and vehicle tracking in sensor networks, and active multi-robot localization and mapping are presented. Coupled with linearization and model predictive control, our algorithms can even generate adaptive control policies for nonlinear sensing and mobility models. Linear Gaussian information seeking, however, cannot be applied directly in the presence of sensing nuisances such as missed detections, false alarms, and ambiguous data association or when some sensor observations are discrete (e.g., object classes, medical alarms) or, even worse, when the sensing and target models are entirely unknown. The second part of the dissertation considers these complications in the context of two applications: active localization from semantic observations (e.g, recognized objects) and radio signal source seeking. The complexity of the target inference problem forces us to resort to greedy planning of the sensor trajectories. Non-greedy closed-loop information acquisition with general discrete models is achieved in the final part of the dissertation via dynamic programming and Monte Carlo tree search algorithms. Applications in active object recognition and pose estimation are presented. The techniques developed in this thesis offer an effective and scalable approach for controlled information acquisition with multiple sensing robots and have broad applications to environmental monitoring, search and rescue, security and surveillance, localization and mapping, precision agriculture, and structure inspection

Learning Behavior Models for Interpreting and Predicting Traffic Situations

In this thesis, we present Bayesian state estimation and machine learning methods for predicting traffic situations. The cognitive ability to assess situations and behaviors of traffic participants, and to anticipate possible developments is an essential requirement for several applications in the traffic domain, especially for self-driving cars. We present a method for learning behavior models from unlabeled traffic observations and develop improved learning methods for decision trees

The Second Conference on Lunar Bases and Space Activities of the 21st Century, volume 1

These papers comprise a peer-review selection of presentations by authors from NASA, LPI industry, and academia at the Second Conference (April 1988) on Lunar Bases and Space Activities of the 21st Century, sponsored by the NASA Office of Exploration and the Lunar Planetary Institute. These papers go into more technical depth than did those published from the first NASA-sponsored symposium on the topic, held in 1984. Session topics covered by this volume include (1) design and operation of transportation systems to, in orbit around, and on the Moon, (2) lunar base site selection, (3) design, architecture, construction, and operation of lunar bases and human habitats, and (4) lunar-based scientific research and experimentation in astronomy, exobiology, and lunar geology