Spatial Economic Analysis in Data-Rich Environments

Controlling for spatial effects in micro-economic studies of consumer and producer behavior necessitates a range of analytical modifications ranging from modest changes in data collection and the definition of variables to dramatic changes in the modeling of consumer and producer decision-making. This paper discusses conceptual, empirical, and data issues involved in modeling the spatial aspects of economic behavior in data rich environments. Attention is given to established and emerging agricultural economic applications of spatial data and spatial econometric methods at the micro-scale. Recent applications of individual and household data are featured, including models of land-use change at the urban-rural interface, agricultural land values, and technological change and technology adoption.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, C21, Q10, Q12, Q15, Q56,

Current capabilities, requirements and a proposed strategy for interdependency analysis in the UK

The UK government recently commissioned a research study to identify the state-of-the-art in Critical Infrastructure modelling and analysis, and the government/industry requirements for such tools and services. This study (Cetifs) concluded with a strategy aiming to bridge the gaps between the capabilities and requirements, which would establish interdependency analysis as a commercially viable service in the near future. This paper presents the findings of this study that was carried out by CSR, City University London, Adelard LLP, a safety/security consultancy and Cranfield University, defense academy of the UK

Application of Geographical Information Systems to Lahar Hazard Assessment on an Active Volcanic System

Lahars (highly dynamic mixtures of volcanic debris and water) have been responsible for some of the most serious volcanic disasters and have killed tens of thousands of people in recent decades. Despite considerable lahar model development in the sciences, many research tools have proved wholly unsuitable for practical application on an active volcanic system where it is difficult to obtain field measurements. In addition, geographic information systems are tools that offer a great potential to explore, model and map hazards, but are currently under-utilised for lahar hazard assessment. This research pioneered a three-tiered approach to lahar hazard assessment on Montserrat, West Indies. Initially, requirements of potential users of lahar information (scientists and decision-makers) were established through interview and evaluated against attainable modelling outputs (given flow type and data availability). Subsequently, a digital elevation model, fit for modelling lahars, was used by a path of steepest descent algorithm and a semi-empirical debris-flow model in the prediction of lahar routes and inundation areas. Limitations of these established geographical information system (GIS) based models, for predicting the behaviour of (relatively under-studied) dilute lahars, were used to inform key parameters for a novel model, also tightly coupled to a GIS, that simulated flow routes based on change in velocity. Importantly, uncertainty in model predictions was assessed through a stochastic simulation of elevation error. Finally, the practical utility of modelling outputs (visualisations) was assessed through mutual feedback with local scientists. The new model adequately replicated past flow routes and gave preliminary predictions for velocities and travel times, thus providing a short-term lahar hazard assessment. Inundation areas were also mapped using the debris-flow model to assist long-term planning. Ultimately, a GIS can support ‘on the ground’ planning decisions, but efficacy is limited by an active volcanic system which can restrict feedback to and from end-users. *[The appendices for this thesis were submitted as separate files which could not be uploaded to the repository. Please contact the author for more information.]

Scientific knowledge and scientific uncertainty in bushfire and flood risk mitigation: literature review

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Scientific Diversity, Scientific Uncertainty and Risk Mitigation Policy and Planning (RMPP) project aims to investigate the diversity and uncertainty of bushfire and flood science, and its contribution to risk mitigation policy and planning. The project investigates how policy makers, practitioners, courts, inquiries and the community differentiate, understand and use scientific knowledge in relation to bushfire and flood risk. It uses qualitative social science methods and case studies to analyse how diverse types of knowledge are ordered and judged as salient, credible and authoritative, and the pragmatic meaning this holds for emergency management across the PPRR spectrum. This research report is the second literature review of the RMPP project and was written before any of the case studies had been completed. It synthesises approximately 250 academic sources on bushfire and flood risk science, including research on hazard modelling, prescribed burning, hydrological engineering, development planning, meteorology, climatology and evacuation planning. The report also incorporates theoretical insights from the fields of risk studies and science and technology studies (STS), as well as indicative research regarding the public understandings of science, risk communication and deliberative planning. This report outlines the key scientific practices (methods and knowledge) and scientific uncertainties in bushfire and flood risk mitigation in Australia. Scientific uncertainties are those ‘known unknowns’ and ‘unknown unknowns’ that emerge from the development and utilisation of scientific knowledge. Risk mitigation involves those processes through which agencies attempt to limit the vulnerability of assets and values to a given hazard. The focus of this report is the uncertainties encountered and managed by risk mitigation professionals in regards to these two hazards, though literature regarding natural sciences and the scientific method more generally are also included where appropriate. It is important to note that while this report excludes professional experience and local knowledge from its consideration of uncertainties and knowledge, these are also very important aspects of risk mitigation which will be addressed in the RMPP project’s case studies. Key findings of this report include: Risk and scientific knowledge are both constructed categories, indicating that attempts to understand any individual instance of risk or scientific knowledge should be understood in light of the social, political, economic, and ecological context in which they emerge. Uncertainty is a necessary element of scientific methods, and as such risk mitigation practitioners and researchers alike should seek to ‘embrace uncertainty’ (Moore et al., 2005) as part of navigating bushfire and flood risk mitigation

ASSESSMENT OF FLOOD HAZARD SUSCEPTIBILITY IN SOUTH SUDAN’S UPPER NILE STATE USING GIS-BASED MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS

openLe alluvioni sono tra i rischi naturali più rovinosi. I loro effetti avversi comprendono danni alle strutture fisiche, sociali ed economiche, ed un deterioramento dei mezzi di sussistenza. Allo stesso tempo, attribuito alle variazioni climatiche ed eventi estremi causati dal cambiamento climatico, è stato registrato un incremento nella frequenza di alluvioni a livello globale, aumentando la necessita di comprendere gli aspetti spazio-temporali di questi fenomeni. Questo studio esamina la dimensione spaziale del rischio di inondazione nell’Alto Nilo, Sudan del Sud, regione con una riconosciuta vulnerabilità verso le inondazioni, causata principalmente dal suo posizionamento geografico all’interno di una pianura alluvionale caratterizzata da una notevole variabilità della portata di piena. L’obiettivo di questa indagine è quello di mappare la potenziale estensione spaziale degli allagamenti all’interno dell’area di studio in uno scenario di inondazione. La mappa del rischio di inondazioni, fondata su diversi indici, è stata sviluppata utilizzando una decisione d’analisi multicriteriale (MCDA) basata su GIS, ed il analytical hierarchy process (AHP). Gli otto fattori d’influenza per le alluvioni utilizzati per lo studio sono: distanza da fiumi, indice di umidità topografica, densità di drenaggio, copertura del suolo (LULC), precipitazioni medie annue, pendenza, altitudine, e tipo di suolo. La mappa del rischio di inondazione sviluppata per l’area di studio è composta da cinque zone di suscettibilità: molto alta, alta, moderata, bassa, molto bassa. Queste zone coprono rispettivamente il 12%, 26%, 29%, 22%, e 9% dell’area di studio. La mappa è stata ulteriormente validata tramite un confronto con la mappa satellitare dello storico delle inondazioni, ed è risultata soddisfacente nello stimare la probabile estensione spaziale degli allagamenti. Il modello della mappa è potrà risultare strumentale per le misure di preparazione alle inondazioni, e come guida per future indagini specifiche nella dimensione spazio-temporale di eventi alluvionali nella regione dell’Alto Nilo.Floods are among the most ruinous of all natural hazards. Its adverse effects include damages to the physical, social, and economic structures, and disruption of livelihoods. contemporary, attributed to climate change-induced climate variations and extreme weather events, the frequency of flood occurrence has increased all around the globe. This has therefore, augmented the necessity to comprehend the spatial and temporal dimension of flood phenomena. The current study examines the spatial dimension of flood hazard in the Upper Nile state, South Sudan, a region acknowledged to be highly vulnerable to inundation, mainly due to is geographical position within a flood plain characterized by a notable variability in discharge. The objective of this investigation is to map the potential spatial extent of floodwater within the boundaries of study area under flood scenarios. The index-based flood hazard map was developed using GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). Eight flood influencing factors were used in this study, namely; distance to rivers, topographic wetness index, drainage density, land-coverage (LULC), annual average rainfall, slope, elevation, and soil types. The flood hazard map developed for study area consist of five flood hazard susceptibility zones: very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. These zones encompass proportions of 12%, 26%, 29%, 22%, and 9% of the study area, respectively. The flood hazard map was further validated using satellite historical inundation map and determined to be satisfactory in depicting the probabilistic spatial extent of inundation. The flood hazard model developed is anticipated to be instrumental in pre-flood preparedness measures as well as a guide for future detailed investigations on the spatial–temporal dimension of flood incidents in the Upper Nile state

Training of Crisis Mappers and Map Production from Multi-sensor Data: Vernazza Case Study (Cinque Terre National Park, Italy)

This aim of paper is to presents the development of a multidisciplinary project carried out by the cooperation between Politecnico di Torino and ITHACA (Information Technology for Humanitarian Assistance, Cooperation and Action). The goal of the project was the training in geospatial data acquiring and processing for students attending Architecture and Engineering Courses, in order to start up a team of "volunteer mappers". Indeed, the project is aimed to document the environmental and built heritage subject to disaster; the purpose is to improve the capabilities of the actors involved in the activities connected in geospatial data collection, integration and sharing. The proposed area for testing the training activities is the Cinque Terre National Park, registered in the World Heritage List since 1997. The area was affected by flood on the 25th of October 2011. According to other international experiences, the group is expected to be active after emergencies in order to upgrade maps, using data acquired by typical geomatic methods and techniques such as terrestrial and aerial Lidar, close-range and aerial photogrammetry, topographic and GNSS instruments etc.; or by non conventional systems and instruments such us UAV, mobile mapping etc. The ultimate goal is to implement a WebGIS platform to share all the data collected with local authorities and the Civil Protectio

Reliable and Resilient Surface Water Management through Rapid Scenario Screening

Surface water flooding causes significant damage, disruption and loss of life in cities, both in the UK and globally. These impacts have historically been managed through application of conventional urban drainage systems designed to meet specified design standards. Conventional strategies have performed well in the past, but are becoming increasingly unfit for purpose due to intensifying hazards caused by several emerging challenges, including climate change, urban growth and aging drainage infrastructure. In response, an extensive range of alternative novel interventions has been developed. These have been successfully applied across many case studies and their performance to meet design standards on specific sites is now well understood. However, application is still limited and challenges exist regarding how to maximise performance at the urban catchment scale and incorporate resilience to extreme rainfall events within design. This thesis addresses these challenges through evaluating intervention performance using a rapid scenario screening framework. This framework delivers insight into the complex permutations of intervention strategies at a catchment scale through evaluating alternatives, scales, spatial interactions and responses to a range of rainfall events. The study achieves novelty through developing a new modelling methodology which applies cell parameterisation to represent urban drainage systems and interventions using an existing cellular automata model. The framework is applied at a high level to screen intervention performance using easily accessible data and simplified intervention strategies, it is envisaged that this style of analysis is appropriate for initial catchment assessment to evidence and direct future flood management actions. The research finds intervention scale, distribution and placement to be important factors in determining performance within the context of initial catchment screening using theoretical modelling parameters. Although localised interventions provide benefit at a smaller scale, catchment based strategies are required to substantially reduce estimated annual damage costs across urban areas. The most effective intervention was consistently found to be extensive application of decentralised rainfall capture, which reduced expected annual damage in a UK case study by up to 76%. Intervention distribution and placement are also demonstrated to significantly influence cost effectiveness of strategies, with a wide range of ratios predicted, ranging from £0.10 to £26.0 saved per £1 spent. The most cost effective interventions across the case studies investigated were found to be high volume local drainage interventions targeted in areas of intense flooding. Results demonstrate significant variation in strategy performance depending on rainfall intensity and duration. Analysis across events ranging from 2 to 1000 year return periods found many interventions which performed well during design standard events demonstrate substantial decreases in effectiveness during higher magnitude rainfall. Of particular note are interventions with finite storage capacities, which exhibit considerable decreases in performance at certain threshold levels. The implications of this finding are that designing interventions with resilient performance requires simulation of many rainfall scenarios, and that interventions with resilient properties, such as green infrastructure, do not necessarily achieve resilient performance. The research also identifies that rapid screening frameworks contribute an adaptable and useful tool for stakeholder engagement, intervention design and scenario exploration. Case study application of the framework alongside catchment stakeholders in Melbourne, Australia, facilitated an efficient and collaborative design screening process which benefitted from enhanced communication across a wide range of expertise. The simplified development of intervention strategies provided a clear communication tool which supported the multi-disciplinary investigations required for urban planning in a complex environment. Analysis of many strategy permutations highlighted the advantage of multiple smaller intervention strategies accumulating towards catchment scale benefits, a possibility which is advantaged through stakeholder communication tools, such as this framework. Overall, this thesis demonstrates that reliable and resilient surface water management can be achieved through decentralised catchment scale implementation of interventions, complemented by targeted and cost effective high volume measures. Complexity and variation of outcomes across a range of scenarios indicates the importance of encapsulating the complex permutations of options when evaluating interventions and provides justification for future application of rapid scenario screening frameworks.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC

Assessing vulnerability and modelling assistance: using demographic indicators of vulnerability and agent-based modelling to explore emergency flooding relief response

Flooding is a significant concern for much of the UK and is recognised as a primary threat by most local councils. Those in society most often deemed vulnerable: the elderly, poor or sick, for example, often see their level of vulnerability increase during hazard events. A greater knowledge of the spatial distribution of vulnerability within communities is key to understanding how a population may be impacted by a hazard event. Vulnerability indices are regularly used – in conjunction with needs assessments and on-the-ground research – to target service provision and justify resource allocation. Past work on measuring and mapping vulnerability has been limited by a focus on income-related indicators, a lack of consideration of accessibility, and the reliance on proprietary data. The Open Source Vulnerability Index (OSVI) encompasses an extensive range of vulnerability indicators supported by the wider literature and expert validation and provides data at a sufficiently fine resolution that can identify vulnerable populations. Findings of the OSVI demonstrate the potential cascading impact of a flood hazard as it impacts an already vulnerable population: exacerbating pre-existing vulnerabilities, limiting capabilities and restricting accessibility and access to key services. The OSVI feeds into an agent-based model (ABM) that explores the capacity of the British Red Cross (BRC) to distribute relief during flood emergencies using strategies based upon the OSVI. A participatory modelling approach was utilised whereby the BRC were included in all aspects of the model development. The major contribution of this work is the novel synthesis of demographics analysis, vulnerability mapping and geospatial simulation. The project contributes to the growing understanding of vulnerability and response management within the NGO sector. It is hoped that the index and model produced will allow responder organisations to run simulations of similar emergency events and adjust strategic response plans accordingly

Drinking water supply in resilient cities: Notes from L'Aquila earthquake case study

Disasters impacts on urban environment are the result of interactions among natural and human systems, which are intimately linked each other. What is more, cities are directly dependent on infrastructures providing essential services (Lifeline Systems, LS). The operation of LS in ordinary conditions as well as after disasters is crucial. Among the LS, drinking water supply deserves a critical role for citizens. The present work summarizes some preliminary activities related to an ongoing EU funded research project. The main aim of the paper is to define a System Dynamic Model (SDM) to assess the evolution of resilience of a drinking water supply system in case of natural disasters, with particular attention to the role of both ‘structural’ and ‘non-structural’ parameters. Reflections are carried out on L’Aquila (Italy) case study, since drinking water infrastructures were significantly stressed during the 2009 earthquake, causing a limited functionality in the aftermath of the event. Furthermore, the reallocation of citizens in temporary shelters determined a change in the demand pattern, requiring a dynamic adaptation of the infrastructure. Based on an innovative approach to resilience, the model was developed also to simulate different emergency management scenarios, corresponding to different disaster management strategies