Comparing of ARIMA and RBFNN for short-term forecasting

Based on a combination of an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), a time-series forecasting model is proposed. The proposed model has examined using simulated time series data of tourist arrival to Indonesia recently published by BPS Indonesia. The results demonstrate that the proposed RBFNN is more competent in modelling and forecasting time series than an ARIMA model which is indicated by mean square error (MSE) values. Based on the results obtained, RBFNN model is recommended as an alternative to existing method because it has a simple structure and can produce reasonable forecasts

PENGGUNAAN METODE K-MEANS CLUSTERING UNTUK PENENTUAN PUSAT FUNGSI BASIS PADA MODEL RADIAL BASIS FUNCTION NEURAL NETWORK (RBFNN) DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN DATA KUNJUNGAN WISMAN KE YOGYAKARTA 1994 - 2006

Radial Basis Function Neural Network merupakan kelompok besar dari model neural network yang jarak antara vector input dengan vektor prototype merupakan input dari unit hidden. Manfaat dari Radial Basis Function Neural Network untuk menentukan pendekatan fungsi regulasi, noisy interpolation, estimasi densitas, optimal classification theory dan fungsi potensial. Cukup banyak manfaat Radial Basis Function Neural Network namun belum adanya prosedur yang baku untuk menentukan model Radial Basis Function Neural Network yang optimal pada data time series. Di dalam penelitian ini digunakan data kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara (wisman) ke Yogyakarta pada tahun 1994-2006. Data tersebut diambil banyaknya input 4 dan banyaknya kelas 3,4,5,6, dan 7. Selanjutnya ditentukan pusat dan varian dari masing-masing kelas dengan menggunakan metode K-Means clustering dan ditentukan banyaknya fungsi basis pada model Radial Basis Function Neural Network dengan menggunakan metode forward selection. Hasil penelitian terdapat lima tipe pusat berdasarkan jumlah input dan jumlah kelas. Berdasarkan pusat-pusat yang diperoleh, dengan menggunakan forward selection untuk banyaknya kelas 3, 4, 5, 6, dan 7 diperoleh secara berturut-turut banyaknya fungsi basis 3, 3, 4,6, dan 7

Integrating fuzzy logic and genetic algorithm for upwelling prediction in Maninjau Lake

Upwelling is a natural phenomenon related with the increase in water mass that also occurs in Maninjau Lake, West Sumatra. The upwelling phenomenon resulted in considerable losses for freshwater fish farming because make mass mortalities of fish in farming using the method of floating net cages (karamba jaring apung/KJA). It takes a system that can predict the possibility of upwelling as an early warning to the community, especially fish farming to immediately prepare early anticipation of upwelling prevention. With historical water quality monitoring data at six sites in Maninjau Lake for 17 years, a prediction model can be made. There are three input criteria for Tsukamoto FIS that is water temperature, pH, and dissolve oxygen (DO). The model is built with fuzzy logic integration with the genetic algorithm to optimize the membership function boundaries of input and output criteria. After the optimization, hybrid Tsukamoto FIS and genetic algorithm successfully make a correct upwelling prediction on of 16 data with 94% accuracy

A novel weather parameters prediction scheme and their effects on crops

Weather forecast is significantly imperative in today’s smart technological world. A precise forecast model entails a plentiful data in order to attain the most accurate predictions. However, a forecast of future rainfall from historical data samples has always been challenging and key area of research. Hence, in modern weather forecasting a combo of computer models, observation, and knowledge of trends and patterns are introduced. This research work has presented a fitness function based adaptive artificial neural network scheme in order to forecast rainfall and temperature for upcoming decade (2021-2030) using historical weather data of 20 different districts of Karnataka state. Furthermore, effects of these forecasted weather parameters are realized over five major crops of Karnataka namely rice, wheat, jowar, maize, and ragi with the intention of evaluation for efficient crop management in terms of the passing relevant messages to the farmers and alternate measures such as suggesting other geographical locations to grow the same crop or growing other suitable crops at same geographical location. A graphical user interface (GUI) application has been developed for the proposed work in order to ease out the flow of work

Learning enhancement of radial basis function network with particle swarm optimization

Back propagation (BP) algorithm is the most common technique in Artificial Neural Network (ANN) learning, and this includes Radial Basis Function Network. However, major disadvantages of BP are its convergence rate is relatively slow and always being trapped at the local minima. To overcome this problem, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) has been implemented to enhance ANN learning to increase the performance of network in terms of convergence rate and accuracy. In Back Propagation Radial Basis Function Network (BP-RBFN), there are many elements to be considered. These include the number of input nodes, hidden nodes, output nodes, learning rate, bias, minimum error and activation/transfer functions. These elements will affect the speed of RBF Network learning. In this study, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is incorporated into RBF Network to enhance the learning performance of the network. Two algorithms have been developed on error optimization for Back Propagation of Radial Basis Function Network (BP-RBFN) and Particle Swarm Optimization of Radial Basis Function Network (PSO-RBFN) to seek and generate better network performance. The results show that PSO-RBFN give promising outputs with faster convergence rate and better classifications compared to BP-RBFN

Evolutionary q-Gaussian radial basis function neural networks for multiclassification

This paper proposes a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), called the q-Gaussian RBFNN, that reproduces different radial basis functions (RBFs) by means of a real parameter q. The architecture, weights and node topology are learnt through a hybrid algorithm (HA). In order to test the overall performance, an experimental study with sixteen data sets taken from the UCI repository is presented. The q-Gaussian RBFNN was compared to RBFNNs with Gaussian, Cauchy and inverse multiquadratic RBFs in the hidden layer and to other probabilistic classifiers, including different RBFNN design methods, support vector machines (SVMs), a sparse classifier (sparse multinomial logistic regression, SMLR) and a non-sparse classifier (regularized multinomial logistic regression, RMLR). The results show that the q-Gaussian model can be considered very competitive with the other classification methods. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd

Literature Review on Big Data Analytics Methods

Companies and industries are faced with a huge amount of raw data, which have information and knowledge in their hidden layer. Also, the format, size, variety, and velocity of generated data bring complexity for industries to apply them in an efficient and effective way. So, complexity in data analysis and interpretation incline organizations to deploy advanced tools and techniques to overcome the difficulties of managing raw data. Big data analytics is the advanced method that has the capability for managing data. It deploys machine learning techniques and deep learning methods to benefit from gathered data. In this research, the methods of both ML and DL have been discussed, and an ML/DL deployment model for IOT data has been proposed