Comparison of modelling techniques for milk-production forecasting

peer-reviewedThe objective of this study was to assess the suitability of 3 different modeling techniques for the prediction of total daily herd milk yield from a herd of 140 lactating pasture-based dairy cows over varying forecast horizons. A nonlinear auto-regressive model with exogenous input, a static artificial neural network, and a multiple linear regression model were developed using 3 yr of historical milk-production data. The models predicted the total daily herd milk yield over a full season using a 305-d forecast horizon and 50-, 30-, and 10-d moving piecewise horizons to test the accuracy of the models over long- and short-term periods. All 3 models predicted the daily production levels for a full lactation of 305 d with a percentage root mean square error (RMSE) of ≤12.03%. However, the nonlinear auto-regressive model with exogenous input was capable of increasing its prediction accuracy as the horizon was shortened from 305 to 50, 30, and 10 d [RMSE (%) = 8.59, 8.1, 6.77, 5.84], whereas the static artificial neural network [RMSE (%) = 12.03, 12.15, 11.74, 10.7] and the multiple linear regression model [RMSE (%) = 10.62, 10.68, 10.62, 10.54] were not able to reduce their forecast error over the same horizons to the same extent. For this particular application the nonlinear auto-regressive model with exogenous input can be presented as a more accurate alternative to conventional regression modeling techniques, especially for short-term milk-yield predictions

Review of Nature-Inspired Forecast Combination Techniques

Effective and efficient planning in various areas can be significantly supported by forecasting a variable like an economy growth rate or product demand numbers for a future point in time. More than one forecast for the same variable is often available, leading to the question whether one should choose one of the single models or combine several of them to obtain a forecast with improved accuracy. In the almost 40 years of research in the area of forecast combination, an impressive amount of work has been done. This paper reviews forecast combination techniques that are nonlinear and have in some way been inspired by nature

Freeze-drying modeling and monitoring using a new neuro-evolutive technique

This paper is focused on the design of a black-box model for the process of freeze-drying of pharmaceuticals. A new methodology based on a self-adaptive differential evolution scheme is combined with a back-propagation algorithm, as local search method, for the simultaneous structural and parametric optimization of the model represented by a neural network. Using the model of the freeze-drying process, both the temperature and the residual ice content in the product vs. time can be determine off-line, given the values of the operating conditions (the temperature of the heating shelf and the pressure in the drying chamber). This makes possible to understand if the maximum temperature allowed by the product is trespassed and when the sublimation drying is complete, thus providing a valuable tool for recipe design and optimization. Besides, the black box model can be applied to monitor the freeze-drying process: in this case, the measurement of product temperature is used as input variable of the neural network in order to provide in-line estimation of the state of the product (temperature and residual amount of ice). Various examples are presented and discussed, thus pointing out the strength of the too

Are developmental disorders like cases of adult brain damage? Implications from connectionist modelling

It is often assumed that similar domain-specific behavioural impairments found in cases of adult brain damage and developmental disorders correspond to similar underlying causes, and can serve as convergent evidence for the modular structure of the normal adult cognitive system. We argue that this correspondence is contingent on an unsupported assumption that atypical development can produce selective deficits while the rest of the system develops normally (Residual Normality), and that this assumption tends to bias data collection in the field. Based on a review of connectionist models of acquired and developmental disorders in the domains of reading and past tense, as well as on new simulations, we explore the computational viability of Residual Normality and the potential role of development in producing behavioural deficits. Simulations demonstrate that damage to a developmental model can produce very different effects depending on whether it occurs prior to or following the training process. Because developmental disorders typically involve damage prior to learning, we conclude that the developmental process is a key component of the explanation of endstate impairments in such disorders. Further simulations demonstrate that in simple connectionist learning systems, the assumption of Residual Normality is undermined by processes of compensation or alteration elsewhere in the system. We outline the precise computational conditions required for Residual Normality to hold in development, and suggest that in many cases it is an unlikely hypothesis. We conclude that in developmental disorders, inferences from behavioural deficits to underlying structure crucially depend on developmental conditions, and that the process of ontogenetic development cannot be ignored in constructing models of developmental disorders