The Political Economy of Corporate Governance Change in Bulgaria: Washington Consensus, Primitive Accumulation of Capital, and Catching-Up in the 1990

This study examines three key determinants of corporate governance change in Bulgaria: the Washington Consensus policy, primitive accumulation of capital forces, and 'catching-up' factors. The study reveals that in the early transition (1989-96) primitive capital accumulation prevailed over the Washington Consensus impact on corporate governance transformation while since 1997 Washington Consensus has been in the process of becoming the decisive factor for institutional change. The emerging corporate governance system has been neither Anglo-American (market based) nor bank-based, but rather a 'crony' relationship-based one. The striking features of this system are as follows: (i) a dual enterprise sector, (ii) ownership heterogeneity; (iii) fragile capital markets; (iv) pervasive banks lending behavior; (v) globalization factors discretion. The challenge to policy-makers in Bulgaria is how to design institutions for 'catching-up' that would curb both managerial and globalization factors discretion.

Microscopic models of financial markets

This review deals with several microscopic models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation approaches in financial economics, we first give a summary of the Donangelo-Sneppen model of monetary exchange and compare it with related models in economics literature. Our selective review then outlines the main ingredients of some influential early models of multi-agent dynamics in financial markets (Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon). As will be seen, these contributions draw their inspiration from the complex appearance of investors' interactions in real-life markets. Their main aim is to reproduce (and, thereby, provide possible explanations) for the spectacular bubbles and crashes seen in certain historical episodes, but they lack (like almost all the work before 1998 or so) a perspective in terms of the universal statistical features of financial time series. In fact, awareness of a set of such regularities (power-law tails of the distribution of returns, temporal scaling of volatility) only gradually appeared over the nineties. With the more precise description of the formerly relatively vague characteristics (e.g. moving from the notion of fat tails to the more concrete one of a power-law with index around three), it became clear that financial markets dynamics give rise to some kind of universal scaling laws. Showing similarities with scaling laws for other systems with many interacting subunits, an exploration of financial markets as multi-agent systems appeared to be a natural consequence. This topic was pursued by quite a number of contributions appearing in both the physics and economics literature since the late nineties. From the wealth of different flavors of multi-agent models that have appeared by now, we discuss the Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Levy-Huang and Lux-Marchesi models. Open research questions are discussed in our concluding section. --

Critical Market Crashes

This review is a partial synthesis of the book ``Why stock market crash'' (Princeton University Press, January 2003), which presents a general theory of financial crashes and of stock market instabilities that his co-workers and the author have developed over the past seven years. The study of the frequency distribution of drawdowns, or runs of successive losses shows that large financial crashes are ``outliers'': they form a class of their own as can be seen from their statistical signatures. If large financial crashes are ``outliers'', they are special and thus require a special explanation, a specific model, a theory of their own. In addition, their special properties may perhaps be used for their prediction. The main mechanisms leading to positive feedbacks, i.e., self-reinforcement, such as imitative behavior and herding between investors are reviewed with many references provided to the relevant literature outside the confine of Physics. Positive feedbacks provide the fuel for the development of speculative bubbles, preparing the instability for a major crash. We demonstrate several detailed mathematical models of speculative bubbles and crashes. The most important message is the discovery of robust and universal signatures of the approach to crashes. These precursory patterns have been documented for essentially all crashes on developed as well as emergent stock markets, on currency markets, on company stocks, and so on. The concept of an ``anti-bubble'' is also summarized, with two forward predictions on the Japanese stock market starting in 1999 and on the USA stock market still running. We conclude by presenting our view of the organization of financial markets.Comment: Latex 89 pages and 38 figures, in press in Physics Report

Bubbles and crashes in a behavioural finance model.

Finance; Model; Working;

Agricultural markets in Benin and Malawi : the operation and performance of traders

Drawing on original surveys of agricultural traders, the authors examine how traders operate in two Sub-Saharan African countries, Benin and Malawi. They find the following: The largest transaction costs for traders are search and transport. Search methods rely principally on personal visits by the trader, which raises search costs. And since enterprises are very small, transport represents a large share of marketing costs. Brand recognition, grading, and quality certification are nonexistent. Brokers and agents are not organized in commodity exchanges. Quantities are not pooled for transport and storage so as to achieve returns to scale. Interseasonal and interregional arbitrage is not feasible for most traders, who prefer to operate day to day in a small territory. This information provides some important insights into how agricultural trade could be improved. It suggests possible policy interventions in four main areas: increasing traders'asset base, reducing transaction risk, promoting more sophisticated business practices, and reducing physical marketing costs.Markets and Market Access,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Markets and Market Access,Access to Markets

Bubbles and Crashes in a Behavioural Finance Model

We develop a simple model of the exchange rate in which agents optimize their portfolio and use different forecasting rules. They check the profitability of these rules ex post and select the more profitable one. This model produces two kinds of equilibria, a fundamental and a bubble one. In a stochastic environment the model generates a complex dynamics in which bubbles and crashes occur at unpredictable moments. We contrast these "behavioural" bubbles with "rational" bubbles.exchange rate, bounded rationality, heterogeneous agents, bubbles and crashes, complex dynamics

The American Mortgage Crisis Implications on the international economics evolutions

Shock waves that produce large cracks deepen existing political, economic and social, and sometimes a new order replaces the old. In 2010, states across the world over blast, which invariably will lead to changing the current world order. Last twenty years have seen major changes in international economic context, the Soviet Union collapsed and centralized economies in Eastern Europe, reforms in China and India, export-based growth strategies in East Asia, all leading to the creation of a world economy market and also bringing 4 to 5 billion people.mortgage crisis, financial crisis, stock market, bank loans, international trade

Reading Globalization from the Margin: The Case of Abdullah Munshi

In this essay I argue that the global perspective, established in the era of modernEuropean imperialism, is given institutional expression as a way of seeing that is engaged—both by ruler and ruled— as the frame of adequate representation. Briefly outlining how this frame operates in historical and cultural studies today, I examine its deployment in mid-nineteenth-century Melaka and Singapore through a reading of the Hikayat Abdullah, a seminal Malay-language text composed by Abdullah bin Abdul Kadir. Although Abdullah self-consciously sets about reproducing the global perspective, I show how this mode of thematization is interrupted and displaced as it brings about an encounter between the diverse and uneven contexts of the native and European worlds