Efficient selection of globally optimal rules on large imbalanced data based on rule coverage relationship analysis

Copyright © SIAM. Rule-based anomaly and fraud detection systems often suffer from massive false alerts against a huge number of enterprise transactions. A crucial and challenging problem is to effectively select a globally optimal rule set which can capture very rare anomalies dispersed in large-scale background transactions. The existing rule selection methods which suffer significantly from complex rule interactions and overlapping in large imbalanced data, often lead to very high false positive rate. In this paper, we analyze the interactions and relationships between rules and their coverage on transactions, and propose a novel metric, Max Coverage Gain. Max Coverage Gain selects the optimal rule set by evaluating the contribution of each rule in terms of overall performance to cut out those locally significant but globally redundant rules, without any negative impact on the recall. An effective algorithm, MCGminer, is then designed with a series of built-in mechanisms and pruning strategies to handle complex rule interactions and reduce computational complexity towards identifying the globally optimal rule set. Substantial experiments on 13 UCI data sets and a real time online banking transactional database demonstrate that MCGminer achieves significant improvement on both accuracy, scalability, stability and efficiency on large imbalanced data compared to several state-of-the-art rule selection techniques

CHIRPS: Explaining random forest classification

Modern machine learning methods typically produce “black box” models that are opaque to interpretation. Yet, their demand has been increasing in the Human-in-the-Loop pro-cesses, that is, those processes that require a human agent to verify, approve or reason about the automated decisions before they can be applied. To facilitate this interpretation, we propose Collection of High Importance Random Path Snippets (CHIRPS); a novel algorithm for explaining random forest classification per data instance. CHIRPS extracts a decision path from each tree in the forest that contributes to the majority classification, and then uses frequent pattern mining to identify the most commonly occurring split conditions. Then a simple, conjunctive form rule is constructed where the antecedent terms are derived from the attributes that had the most influence on the classification. This rule is returned alongside estimates of the rule’s precision and coverage on the training data along with counter-factual details. An experimental study involving nine data sets shows that classification rules returned by CHIRPS have a precision at least as high as the state of the art when evaluated on unseen data (0.91–0.99) and offer a much greater coverage (0.04–0.54). Furthermore, CHIRPS uniquely controls against under- and over-fitting solutions by maximising novel objective functions that are better suited to the local (per instance) explanation setting

Recent Trends in Computational Intelligence

Traditional models struggle to cope with complexity, noise, and the existence of a changing environment, while Computational Intelligence (CI) offers solutions to complicated problems as well as reverse problems. The main feature of CI is adaptability, spanning the fields of machine learning and computational neuroscience. CI also comprises biologically-inspired technologies such as the intellect of swarm as part of evolutionary computation and encompassing wider areas such as image processing, data collection, and natural language processing. This book aims to discuss the usage of CI for optimal solving of various applications proving its wide reach and relevance. Bounding of optimization methods and data mining strategies make a strong and reliable prediction tool for handling real-life applications

Classification Using Association Rules

This research investigates the use of an unsupervised learning technique, association rules, to make class predictions. The use of association rules to make class predictions is a growing area of focus within data mining research. The research to date has focused predominately on balanced datasets or synthetized imbalanced datasets. There have been concerns raised that the algorithms using association rules to make classifications do not perform well on imbalanced datasets. This research comprehensively evaluates the accuracy of a number of association rule classifiers in predicting home loan sales in an Irish retail banking context. The experiments designed test three associative classifier algorithms CBA, CMAR and SPARCCC against two benchmark algorithms conditional inference trees and random forests on a naturally imbalanced dataset. The experiments implemented and evaluated show that the benchmark tree based algorithms conditional inference trees and random forests outperform the associative classifier models across a range of balanced accuracy measures. This research contributes to the growing body of research in extending association rules to make class prediction

Contributions to comprehensible classification

xxx, 240 p.La tesis doctoral descrita en esta memoria ha contribuido a la mejora de dos tipos de algoritmos declasificación comprensibles: algoritmos de \'arboles de decisión consolidados y algoritmos de inducciónde reglas tipo PART.En cuanto a las contribuciones a la consolidación de algoritmos de árboles de decisión, se hapropuesto una nueva estrategia de remuestreo que ajusta el número de submuestras para permitir cambiarla distribución de clases en las submuestras sin perder información. Utilizando esta estrategia, la versiónconsolidada de C4.5 (CTC) obtiene mejores resultados que un amplio conjunto de algoritmoscomprensibles basados en algoritmos genéticos y clásicos. Tres nuevos algoritmos han sido consolidados:una variante de CHAID (CHAID*) y las versiones Probability Estimation Tree de C4.5 y CHAID* (C4.4y CHAIC). Todos los algoritmos consolidados obtienen mejores resultados que sus algoritmos de\'arboles de decisión base, con tres algoritmos consolidados clasificándose entre los cuatro mejores en unacomparativa. Finalmente, se ha analizado el efecto de la poda en algoritmos simples y consolidados de\'arboles de decisión, y se ha concluido que la estrategia de poda propuesta en esta tesis es la que obtiene mejores resultados.En cuanto a las contribuciones a algoritmos tipo PART de inducción de reglas, una primerapropuesta cambia varios aspectos de como PART genera \'arboles parciales y extrae reglas de estos, locual resulta en clasificadores con mejor capacidad de generalizar y menor complejidad estructuralcomparando con los generados por PART. Una segunda propuesta utiliza \'arboles completamentedesarrollados, en vez de parcialmente desarrollados, y genera conjuntos de reglas que obtienen aúnmejores resultados de clasificación y una complejidad estructural menor. Estas dos nuevas propuestas y elalgoritmo PART original han sido complementadas con variantes basadas en CHAID* para observar siestos beneficios pueden ser trasladados a otros algoritmos de \'arboles de decisión y se ha observado, dehecho, que los algoritmos tipo PART basados en CHAID* también crean clasificadores más simples ycon mejor capacidad de clasificar que CHAID

A multilayer multimodal detection and prediction model based on explainable artificial intelligence for Alzheimer’s disease

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most common type of dementia. Its diagnosis and progression detection have been intensively studied. Nevertheless, research studies often have little effect on clinical practice mainly due to the following reasons: (1) Most studies depend mainly on a single modality, especially neuroimaging; (2) diagnosis and progression detection are usually studied separately as two independent problems; and (3) current studies concentrate mainly on optimizing the performance of complex machine learning models, while disregarding their explainability. As a result, physicians struggle to interpret these models, and feel it is hard to trust them. In this paper, we carefully develop an accurate and interpretable AD diagnosis and progression detection model. This model provides physicians with accurate decisions along with a set of explanations for every decision. Specifically, the model integrates 11 modalities of 1048 subjects from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) real-world dataset: 294 cognitively normal, 254 stable mild cognitive impairment (MCI), 232 progressive MCI, and 268 AD. It is actually a two-layer model with random forest (RF) as classifier algorithm. In the first layer, the model carries out a multi-class classification for the early diagnosis of AD patients. In the second layer, the model applies binary classification to detect possible MCI-to-AD progression within three years from a baseline diagnosis. The performance of the model is optimized with key markers selected from a large set of biological and clinical measures. Regarding explainability, we provide, for each layer, global and instance-based explanations of the RF classifier by using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) feature attribution framework. In addition, we implement 22 explainers based on decision trees and fuzzy rule-based systems to provide complementary justifications for every RF decision in each layer. Furthermore, these explanations are represented in natural language form to help physicians understand the predictions. The designed model achieves a cross-validation accuracy of 93.95% and an F1-score of 93.94% in the first layer, while it achieves a cross-validation accuracy of 87.08% and an F1-Score of 87.09% in the second layer. The resulting system is not only accurate, but also trustworthy, accountable, and medically applicable, thanks to the provided explanations which are broadly consistent with each other and with the AD medical literature. The proposed system can help to enhance the clinical understanding of AD diagnosis and progression processes by providing detailed insights into the effect of different modalities on the disease riskThis work was supported by National Research Foundation of Korea-Grant funded by the Korean Government (Ministry of Science and ICT)-NRF-2020R1A2B5B02002478). In addition, Dr. Jose M. Alonso is Ramon y Cajal Researcher (RYC-2016-19802), and its research is supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (grants RTI2018-099646-B-I00, TIN2017-84796-C2-1-R, TIN2017-90773-REDT, and RED2018-102641-T) and the Galician Ministry of Education, University and Professional Training (grants ED431F 2018/02, ED431C 2018/29, ED431G/08, and ED431G2019/04), with all grants co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF/FEDER program)S

Stroke outcome measurements from electronic medical records : cross-sectional study on the effectiveness of neural and nonneural classifiers

Background: With the rapid adoption of electronic medical records (EMRs), there is an ever-increasing opportunity to collect data and extract knowledge from EMRs to support patient-centered stroke management. Objective: This study aims to compare the effectiveness of state-of-the-art automatic text classification methods in classifying data to support the prediction of clinical patient outcomes and the extraction of patient characteristics from EMRs. Methods: Our study addressed the computational problems of information extraction and automatic text classification. We identified essential tasks to be considered in an ischemic stroke value-based program. The 30 selected tasks were classified (manually labeled by specialists) according to the following value agenda: tier 1 (achieved health care status), tier 2 (recovery process), care related (clinical management and risk scores), and baseline characteristics. The analyzed data set was retrospectively extracted from the EMRs of patients with stroke from a private Brazilian hospital between 2018 and 2019. A total of 44,206 sentences from free-text medical records in Portuguese were used to train and develop 10 supervised computational machine learning methods, including state-of-the-art neural and nonneural methods, along with ontological rules. As an experimental protocol, we used a 5-fold cross-validation procedure repeated 6 times, along with subject-wise sampling. A heatmap was used to display comparative result analyses according to the best algorithmic effectiveness (F1 score), supported by statistical significance tests. A feature importance analysis was conducted to provide insights into the results. Results: The top-performing models were support vector machines trained with lexical and semantic textual features, showing the importance of dealing with noise in EMR textual representations. The support vector machine models produced statistically superior results in 71% (17/24) of tasks, with an F1 score >80% regarding care-related tasks (patient treatment location, fall risk, thrombolytic therapy, and pressure ulcer risk), the process of recovery (ability to feed orally or ambulate and communicate), health care status achieved (mortality), and baseline characteristics (diabetes, obesity, dyslipidemia, and smoking status). Neural methods were largely outperformed by more traditional nonneural methods, given the characteristics of the data set. Ontological rules were also effective in tasks such as baseline characteristics (alcoholism, atrial fibrillation, and coronary artery disease) and the Rankin scale. The complementarity in effectiveness among models suggests that a combination of models could enhance the results and cover more tasks in the future. Conclusions: Advances in information technology capacity are essential for scalability and agility in measuring health status outcomes. This study allowed us to measure effectiveness and identify opportunities for automating the classification of outcomes of specific tasks related to clinical conditions of stroke victims, and thus ultimately assess the possibility of proactively using these machine learning techniques in real-world situations

Contributions to comprehensible classification

xxx, 240 p.La tesis doctoral descrita en esta memoria ha contribuido a la mejora de dos tipos de algoritmos declasificación comprensibles: algoritmos de \'arboles de decisión consolidados y algoritmos de inducciónde reglas tipo PART.En cuanto a las contribuciones a la consolidación de algoritmos de árboles de decisión, se hapropuesto una nueva estrategia de remuestreo que ajusta el número de submuestras para permitir cambiarla distribución de clases en las submuestras sin perder información. Utilizando esta estrategia, la versiónconsolidada de C4.5 (CTC) obtiene mejores resultados que un amplio conjunto de algoritmoscomprensibles basados en algoritmos genéticos y clásicos. Tres nuevos algoritmos han sido consolidados:una variante de CHAID (CHAID*) y las versiones Probability Estimation Tree de C4.5 y CHAID* (C4.4y CHAIC). Todos los algoritmos consolidados obtienen mejores resultados que sus algoritmos de\'arboles de decisión base, con tres algoritmos consolidados clasificándose entre los cuatro mejores en unacomparativa. Finalmente, se ha analizado el efecto de la poda en algoritmos simples y consolidados de\'arboles de decisión, y se ha concluido que la estrategia de poda propuesta en esta tesis es la que obtiene mejores resultados.En cuanto a las contribuciones a algoritmos tipo PART de inducción de reglas, una primerapropuesta cambia varios aspectos de como PART genera \'arboles parciales y extrae reglas de estos, locual resulta en clasificadores con mejor capacidad de generalizar y menor complejidad estructuralcomparando con los generados por PART. Una segunda propuesta utiliza \'arboles completamentedesarrollados, en vez de parcialmente desarrollados, y genera conjuntos de reglas que obtienen aúnmejores resultados de clasificación y una complejidad estructural menor. Estas dos nuevas propuestas y elalgoritmo PART original han sido complementadas con variantes basadas en CHAID* para observar siestos beneficios pueden ser trasladados a otros algoritmos de \'arboles de decisión y se ha observado, dehecho, que los algoritmos tipo PART basados en CHAID* también crean clasificadores más simples ycon mejor capacidad de clasificar que CHAID

Predicting Lapse Rate in Life Insurance: An Exploration of Machine Learning Techniques

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Risk Analysis and ManagementThe implementation of machine learning techniques for the prediction of the lapse rate in life insurance is investigated in this study. The lapse rate, which refers to the rate of policy cancellations or expirations, plays a crucial role in the viability of life insurance companies as they determine pricing strategies, manage risk, and plan for the future. Data was collected through a risk survey administered to policyholders, covering their characteristics, policy details, and historical lapse patterns. A variety of machine learning algorithms were then applied to the collected data to evaluate their performance in predicting the lapse rate. The results of the study demonstrate the effectiveness of machine learning methods in forecasting the lapse rate in life insurance. The Extreme Gradient Boosting, C5:0, and random f orest algorithms produced the best results when applied to the dataset. Additionally, several key policy and customer characteristics were identified as having significant predictive power in regards to the lapse rate. However, the limitations of the study must be taken into consideration. Further research is necessary to validate the results on larger and more diverse datasets and to examine the practical applications of the models in the life insurance industry. In conclusion, this study makes a contribution to the existing body of knowledge on the use of machine learning in the insurance industry and holds the potential to inform the development of more efficient risk management practices in the life insurance sector.Os seguros de ramo vida são uma importante rede de segurança financeira para muitos indivíduos e famílias. Um fator-chave na viabilidade de uma seguradora é o risco de lapso, ou seja, a taxa de cancelamento ou expiração de apólices por parte dos segurados. A previsão precisa desta taxa de lapso é essencial para as seguradoras poderem preçar corretamente as apólices, gerir os riscos e planear o futuro estrategicamente. Neste estudo, foi explorado o uso de métodos preditivos de Data Mining para prever a taxa de lapso em seguros de vida. Teve como base a análise e tratamento de dados, tendo em conta um questionário de risco com as características dos segurados, detalhes das suas apólices e padrões históricos de lapso. Com esta informação foi aplicada uma gama de métodos preditivos e feita uma avaliação de performance relativa à previsão da taxa de lapso. Os nossos resultados mostraram que os métodos preditivos podem ser eficazes e coerentes na previsão da taxa de lapso em seguros de vida. Em particular, foi encontrada uma boa performance de resultados nos algoritmos Extreme Gradient Boosting, C5:0 e Random Forest. Além disso, com este estudo foi possivel identificar várias características importantes para conseguir prever as apólices e clientes em risco de lapso. Embora os nossos resultados apontem para uma promessa no uso de metódos preditivos na antevisão da taxa de lapso, também existiram algumas limitações. É sugerido uma maior pesquisa para validar os resultos encontrados e aplicacões de modelos com um conjunto maior de dados e mais diversificados. De modo geral, esta pesquisa contribui para o desenvolvimento do uso de métodos preditivos na indústria de seguros e grande potencial em informar e gerir riscos antecipados no setor segurador no ramo de Vida. Palavras-chave: Ramo Vida, Seguros, Gestão de Risco, Métodos Preditivos de Data Mining, Problema de Classificação, Risco de Lapso, Classificação de Risco