A review of potential physical impacts on harbours in the Mediterranean Sea under climate change

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-0972-9The potential impact of climate change on port operations and infrastructures has received much less attention than the corresponding impact for beach systems. However, ports have always been vulnerable to weather extremes and climate change could enhance such occurrences at timescales comparable to the design lifetime of harbour engineering structures. The analysis in this paper starts with the main climatic variables affecting harbour engineering and exploitation. It continues with a review of the available projections for such variables first at global scale and then at a regional scale (Catalan coast in the western Mediterranean) as a study case for similar environments in the planet. The detailed assessment of impacts starts from downscaled projections for mean sea level and wave storms (wind not considered in the paper). This is followed by an analysis of the port operations and infrastructure performance that are relevant from a climate perspective. The key climatic factors here considered are relative sea level, wave storm features (height, period, direction and duration) and their combined effect, which is expected to produce the highest impacts. The paper ends with a discussion and some examples of analyses aiming at port adaptation to future climate change.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Analysis of Saharan dust intrusions into the Carpathian Basin (Central Europe) over the period of 1979–2011

Aeolian dust particles and dust storms play substantial role in climatic and other environmental processes of the Earth system. The largest and most important dust source areas are situated in the Sahara, from where several hundred thousand tons of mineral dust is emitted each year and transported towards the European continent. Here we show that 130 Saharan dust events (SDEs) reached the atmosphere of the Carpathian Basin from 1979 to 2011 by using the NASA's daily TOMS Aerosol Index data, satellite images and backward trajectory calculations of NOAA HYSPLIT model. Monthly trends of dust events demonstrate that the main period of dust transportation is in the spring, with a secondary maximum in the summer (in July and August). This seasonal distribution match well the seasonality of Saharan dust emissions. However synoptic meteorological conditions govern primarily the occurrence of long-range dust transport towards Central Europe. Based on their different meteorological backgrounds (geopotential field, wind vector and meridional flow), SDEs were classified into three main types. By using composite mean maps of synoptic situations and backward trajectories, the possible source areas have also been identified for the different types of events. Finally, we provide a short discussion on how the African mineral dust could contribute to the local aeolian sedimentation of the Carpathian Basin during the Plio-Pleistocene

Lagoon water-level oscillations driven by rainfall and wave climate

Barrier breaching and subsequent inlet formation represent critical processes that ensure the temporary or permanent connection and transference of water, nutrients, or living organisms between a lagoon and the open sea. Here, we investigate the conditions inducing natural barrier breaching through a 34 months monitoring program of water-level oscillations within a shallow lagoon and the adjacent nearshore, at the Northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula, Louro lagoon. Seven natural openings were identified to have occurred during the three monitored wet seasons, from the 2009 to 2012, (Wet1, Wet2 and Wet3); four in the Wetl, two in the Wet2 and one in. the Wet3. The openings were grouped in three types depending on the observed relation between the lagoon water-level (L-wl), the estimated berm height (B-h) and the water-level at the beach (B-wl): (i) openings by lagoon outflow, which include those characterized by L-wl higher than B-h and lower B-wl; (ii) openings by wave inundation, including those induced by B-wl higher than B-h, and (iii) mixed openings, which result from a combination of the two previous conditions. We observed that L-wl is modulated by the rainfall regime (R-f) and can be explained by the accumulated precipitation. We estimated applying runup equations to obtain B-h and B-wl which depend on the wave climate and tidal level. The inlet lifespan was found to be regulated by the wave climate and rainfall regime; in particular barrier sealing was associated with a sudden increase in wave period and a reduction in precipitation. This work proves that the natural openings could be predicted successfully with support to medium term water-level monitoring programs, which in turn may significantly contribute to strategic decision making for management and conservation purposes.Xunta de Galicia [08MDS036000PR, PlanI2C-ED481B 2014/132-0]MICINN [CTM2012-39599-C03-01]Portuguese Science Foundation [IF/01047/2014]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Marine forests of the Mediterranean-Atlantic Cystoseira tamariscifolia complex show a southern Iberian genetic hotspot and no reproductive isolation in parapatry

Climate-driven range-shifts create evolutionary opportunities for allopatric divergence and subsequent contact, leading to genetic structuration and hybrid zones. We investigate how these processes influenced the evolution of a complex of three closely related Cystoseira spp., which are a key component of the Mediterranean-Atlantic seaweed forests that are undergoing population declines. The C. tamariscifolia complex, composed of C. tamariscifolia s.s., C. amentacea and C. mediterranea, have indistinct boundaries and natural hybridization is suspected. Our aims are to (1) infer the genetic structure and diversity of these species throughout their distribution ranges using microsatellite markers to identify ancient versus recent geographical populations, contact zones and reproductive barriers, and (2) hindcast past distributions using niche models to investigate the influence of past range shifts on genetic divergence at multiple spatial scales. Results supported a single, morphologically plastic species the genetic structure of which was incongruent with a priori species assignments. The low diversity and low singularity in northern European populations suggest recent colonization after the LGM. The southern Iberian genetic hotspot most likely results from the role of this area as a climatic refugium or a secondary contact zone between differentiated populations or both. We hypothesize that life-history traits (selfing, low dispersal) and prior colonization effects, rather than reproductive barriers, might explain the observed genetic discontinuities.Pew Charitable Trusts (USA); MARINERA, Spain [CTM2008-04183-E/MAR]; FCT (Portugal) [FCT-BIODIVERSA/004/2015, CCMAR/Multi/04326/2013, SFRH/BPD/107878/2015, SFRH/BPD/85040/2012]; FPU fellowship of the Spanish Ministry of Education; European Community ASSEMBLE visiting grant [00399/2012]; University of Cadi

The 4.2 ka event in the vegetation record of the central Mediterranean

In this paper, the variation in forest cover in the central Mediterranean region, reflected by percentage changes in the arboreal pollen record, has been examined in relation to the 4.2 ka event. A total of 36 well-dated and detailed pollen records from latitudes between 45 and 36 degrees N were selected and their vegetation dynamics between 5 and 3 ka examined in relation to the physiographic and climatic features of the study area and to the influence of human activity on past vegetation, as suggested by anthropogenic pollen indicators. We have found that the sites located between 43 and 45 degrees N do not show any significant vegetation change in correspondence with the 4.2 ka event. Several sites located on the Italian Peninsula between 39 and 43 degrees N show a marked opening of the forest, suggesting a vegetation response to the climate instability of the 4.2 ka event. Between 36 and 39 degrees N, a forest decline is always visible around 4.2 ka, and in some cases it is dramatic. This indicates that this region was severely affected by a climate change towards arid conditions that lasted a few hundred years and was followed by a recovery of forest vegetation in the Middle Bronze Age. Human activity, especially intense in southern Italy, may have been favored by this natural opening of vegetation. In Sardinia and Corsica, no clear change in vegetation is observed at the same time. We suggest that during the 4.2 ka event southern Italy and Tunisia were under the prevalent influence of a north African climate system characterized by a persistent high-pressure cell

Drought impacts on ecosystem functions of the U.S. National Forests and Grasslands: Part I evaluation of a water and carbon balance model

Understanding and quantitatively evaluating the regional impacts of climate change and variability (e.g., droughts) on forest ecosystem functions (i.e., water yield, evapotranspiration, and productivity) and services (e.g., fresh water supply and carbon sequestration) is of great importance for developing climate change adaptation strategies for National Forests and Grasslands (NFs) in the United States. However, few reliable continental-scale modeling tools are available to account for both water and carbon dynamics. The objective of this study was to test a monthly water and carbon balance model, the Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) model, for potential application in addressing the influences of drought on NFs ecosystem services across the conterminous United States (CONUS). The performance of the WaSSI model was comprehensively assessed with measured streamflow (Q) at 72 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauging stations, and satellite-based estimates of watershed evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) for 170 National Forest and Grassland (NFs). Across the 72 USGS watersheds, the WaSSI model generally captured the spatial variability of multi-year mean annual and monthly Q and annual ET as evaluated by Correlation Coefficient (R = 0.71–1.0), Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NS = 0.31–1.00), and normalized Root Mean Squared Error (0.06–0.48). The modeled ET and GPP by WaSSI agreed well with the remote sensing-based estimates for multi-year annual and monthly means for all the NFs. However, there were systemic discrepancies in GPP between our simulations and the satellite-based estimates on a yearly and monthly scale, suggesting uncertainties in GPP estimates in all methods (i.e., remote sensing and modeling). Overall, our assessments suggested that the WaSSI model had the capability to reconstruct the long-term forest watershed water and carbon balances at a broad scale. This model evaluation study provides a foundation for model applications in understanding the impacts of climate change and variability (e.g., droughts) on NFs ecosystem service functions

Climate Justice, Hurricane Katrina, and African American Environmentalism

The images of human suffering from New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina remain seared in our nation's collective memory. More than 8 years on, the city and its African-American population still have not recovered fully. This reality highlights an important truth: the disturbances that accompany climate change will first and foremost affect minority communities, many of whom are economically disadvantaged. This paper: (1) describes how Hurricane Katrina, an example of the type of natural disaster that will become more prevalent with intensifying climate change, has impacted the black community of New Orleans; (2) explores the notion that African Americans, in the midst of racial oppression, have developed a unique and powerful brand of environmental thought that has much to contribute to mainstream environmentalism; and (3) argues that the voice of the black community, which has a vested interest in climate outcomes, is critically needed in today's climate debate

Mesolithic projectile variability along the southern North Sea basin (NW Europe) : hunter-gatherer responses to repeated climate change at the beginning of the Holocene

This paper investigates how former hunter-gatherers living along the southern North Sea coast in NW Europe adapted to long-term and short-term climatic and environmental changes at the beginning of the Holocene. It is argued that contemporaneous hunter-gatherers repeatedly changed their hunting equipment in response to changing climate and environment, not just for functional reasons but mainly driven by socio-territorial considerations. Based on a Bayesian analysis of 122 critically selected radiocarbon dates a broad chronological correlation is demonstrated between rapid changes in the design and technology of stone projectiles and short but abrupt cooling events, occurring at 10.3, 9.3 and 8.2 ka cal BP. Combined with the rapid sea level rises and increased wildfires these climatic events probably impacted the lifeways of hunter-gatherers in such a way that they increasingly faced resource stress and competition, forcing them to invest in the symbolic defense of their social territories