Bidding Strategy to Support Decision-Making Based on Comprehensive Information in Construction Projects

© 2016 Ru Liang et al. This paper develops a unified method to support contractor for bidding selection in construction projects. A cross-functional contractor with 28 candidate units distributed in the three departments (construction units, design units, and suppliers) is used as an example. This problem is first formulated as a 0-1 quadratic programming problem through optimizing individual performance and collaborative performance of the candidate units based on individual information and collaborative information. Then, a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm is designed to solve this problem and a bidding selection problem for a major bridge project is used to demonstrate our proposed method. The results show that the decision-maker (DM) obtains a better contractor if he pays more attention to collaborative performance

Coalition based approach for shop floor agility – a multiagent approach

Dissertation submitted for a PhD degree in Electrical Engineering, speciality of Robotics and Integrated Manufacturing from the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e TecnologiaThis thesis addresses the problem of shop floor agility. In order to cope with the disturbances and uncertainties that characterise the current business scenarios faced by manufacturing companies, the capability of their shop floors needs to be improved quickly, such that these shop floors may be adapted, changed or become easily modifiable (shop floor reengineering). One of the critical elements in any shop floor reengineering process is the way the control/supervision architecture is changed or modified to accommodate for the new processes and equipment. This thesis, therefore, proposes an architecture to support the fast adaptation or changes in the control/supervision architecture. This architecture postulates that manufacturing systems are no more than compositions of modularised manufacturing components whose interactions when aggregated are governed by contractual mechanisms that favour configuration over reprogramming. A multiagent based reference architecture called Coalition Based Approach for Shop floor Agility – CoBASA, was created to support fast adaptation and changes of shop floor control architectures with minimal effort. The coalitions are composed of agentified manufacturing components (modules), whose relationships within the coalitions are governed by contracts that are configured whenever a coalition is established. Creating and changing a coalition do not involve programming effort because it only requires changes to the contract that regulates it

Perceptual crossing: the simplest online paradigm

Researchers in social cognition increasingly realize that many phenomena cannot be understood by investigating offline situations only, focusing on individual mechanisms and an observer perspective. There are processes of dynamic emergence specific to online situations, when two or more persons are engaged in a real-time interaction that are more than just the sum of the individual capacities or behaviors, and these require the study of online social interaction. Auvray et al.'s (2009) perceptual crossing paradigm offers possibly the simplest paradigm for studying such online interactions: two persons, a one-dimensional space, one bit of information, and a yes/no answer. This study has provoked a lot of resonance in different areas of research, including experimental psychology, computer/robot modeling, philosophy, psychopathology, and even in the field of design. In this article, we review and critically assess this body of literature. We give an overview of both behavioral experimental research and simulated agent modeling done using the perceptual crossing paradigm. We discuss different contexts in which work on perceptual crossing has been cited. This includes the controversy about the possible constitutive role of perceptual crossing for social cognition. We conclude with an outlook on future research possibilities, in particular those that could elucidate the link between online interaction dynamics and individual social cognition

Congrats: a Configurable Granular Trust Scheme for Effective Seller Selection in an E-marketplace

Problem. The e-marketplace of today, with millions of buyers and sellers who never get to meet face to face, is susceptible to the presence of dishonest and fraudulent participants, prowling on unsuspecting trading partners to cheat in transactions, thereby increasing their profit to the detriment of their victims. There is also the multiplicity of goods and services with varying prices and quality, offered by a mix of honest and dishonest vendors. In order to participate in trade without incurring substantial loss, participants rely on intelligent agents using a trust evaluation scheme for partner selection. Making good deals thus depends on the ability of the intelligent agents to evaluate trading partners and picking only trustworthy ones. However, the existing trust evaluation schemes do not adequately protect buyers in the e-marketplace; hence, this study focused on designing a new trust evaluation scheme for buyer agents to use to effectively select sellers. -- Method. To increase the overall performance of intelligent agents and to limit loss for buyers in an e-marketplace, I propose CONGRATS—a configurable granular trust estimation scheme for effective seller selection. The proposed model used historical feedback ratings from multiple sources to estimate trust along multiple dimensions. I simulated a mini e-marketplace to generate the data needed for performance evaluation of the proposed model alongside two existing trust estimation schemes—FIRE and MDT. -- Results. At the peak of performance of CONGRATS, T1 sellers with the highest trust level accounted for about 45% of the total sales as against less than 10% recorded by the least trustworthy (T5) sellers. Compared to FIRE and MDT, CONGRATS had a performance gain of 15% and 30%, respectively, as well as an average earning of 0.89 (out of 1.0) per transaction in contrast to 0.70 and 0.62 per transaction respectively. Cumulative utility gain among buyer groups stood at 612.35 as contrasted to 518.96 and 421.28 for the FIRE and MDT models respectively. -- Conclusions. Modeling trust along multiple dimensions and gathering trust information from many different sources can significantly enhance the trust estimation scheme used by intelligent agents in an e-marketplace. This means that more transactions will occur between buyers and sellers that are more trustworthy. Inarguably, this will reduce loss to an infinitesimal level and consequently boost buyer confidenc

Complex networks analysis in team sports performance: multilevel hypernetworks approach to soccer matches

Humans need to interact socially with others and the environment. These interactions lead to complex systems that elude naïve and casuistic tools for understand these explanations. One way is to search for mechanisms and patterns of behavior in our activities. In this thesis, we focused on players’ interactions in team sports performance and how using complex systems tools, notably complex networks theory and tools, can contribute to Performance Analysis. We began by exploring Network Theory, specifically Social Network Analysis (SNA), first applied to Volleyball (experimental study) and then on soccer (2014 World Cup). The achievements with SNA proved limited in relevant scenarios (e.g., dynamics of networks on n-ary interactions) and we moved to other theories and tools from complex networks in order to tap into the dynamics on/off networks. In our state-of-the-art and review paper we took an important step to move from SNA to Complex Networks Analysis theories and tools, such as Hypernetworks Theory and their structural Multilevel analysis. The method paper explored the Multilevel Hypernetworks Approach to Performance Analysis in soccer matches (English Premier League 2010-11) considering n-ary cooperation and competition interactions between sets of players in different levels of analysis. We presented at an international conference the mathematical formalisms that can express the players’ relationships and the statistical distributions of the occurrence of the sets and their ranks, identifying power law statistical distributions regularities and design (found in some particular exceptions), influenced by coaches’ pre-match arrangement and soccer rules.Os humanos necessitam interagir socialmente com os outros e com o envolvimento. Essas interações estão na origem de sistemas complexos cujo entendimento não é captado através de ferramentas ingénuas e casuísticas. Uma forma será procurar mecanismos e padrões de comportamento nas atividades. Nesta tese, o foco centra-se na utilização de ferramentas dos sistemas complexos, particularmente no contributo da teoria e ferramentas de redes complexas, na Análise do Desempenho Desportivo baseado nas interações dos jogadores de equipas desportivas. Começámos por explorar a Teoria das Redes, especificamente a Análise de Redes Sociais (ARS) no Voleibol (estudo experimental) e depois no futebol (Campeonato do Mundo de 2014). As aplicações da ARS mostraram-se limitadas (por exemplo, na dinâmica das redes em interações n-árias) o que nos trouxe a outras teorias e ferramentas das redes complexas. No capítulo do estadoda- arte e artigo de revisão publicado, abordámos as vantagens de utilização de outras teorias e ferramentas, como a análise Multinível e Teoria das Híperredes. No artigo de métodos, apresentámos a Abordagem de Híperredes Multinível na Análise do Desempenho em jogos de futebol (Premier League Inglesa 2010-11) considerando as interações de cooperação e competição nos conjuntos de jogadores, em diferentes níveis de análise. Numa conferência internacional, apresentámos os formalismos matemáticos que podem expressar as relações dos jogadores e as distribuições estatísticas da ocorrência dos conjuntos e a sua ordem, identificando regularidades de distribuições estatísticas de power law e design (encontrado nalgumas exceções estatísticas específicas), promovidas pelos treinadores na preparação dos jogos e constrangidas pelas regras do futebol

Multi-Agent Systems

A multi-agent system (MAS) is a system composed of multiple interacting intelligent agents. Multi-agent systems can be used to solve problems which are difficult or impossible for an individual agent or monolithic system to solve. Agent systems are open and extensible systems that allow for the deployment of autonomous and proactive software components. Multi-agent systems have been brought up and used in several application domains

La géosimulation orientée agent : un support pour la planification dans le monde réel

La planification devient complexe quand il s’agit de gérer des situations incertaines. Prédire de façon précise est une tâche fastidieuse pour les planificateurs humains. L’approche Simulation-Based Planning consiste à associer la planification à la simulation. Chaque plan généré est simulé afin d’être testé et évalué. Le plan le plus approprié est alors retenu. Cependant, le problème est encore plus complexe lorsque viennent s’ajouter des contraintes spatiales. Par exemple, lors d’un feu de forêt, des bulldozers doivent construire une ligne d’arrêt pour arrêter la propagation des feux. Ils doivent alors tenir compte non seulement de l’avancée des feux mais aussi des caractéristiques du terrain afin de pouvoir avancer plus facilement. Nous proposons une approche de géosimulation basée sur les agents et qui a pour but d’assister la planification dans un espace réel, à large échelle géographique et surtout à forte composante spatiale. Un feu de forêt est un problème typique nécessitant une planification dans un monde réel incertain et soumis à de fortes contraintes spatiales. Nous illustrons donc notre approche (nommée ENCASMA) sur le problème des feux de forêts. L’approche consiste à établir un parallélisme entre l’Environnement Réel ER (p.ex. une forêt incendiée) et un Environnement de Simulation ES (p.ex. une reproduction virtuelle de la forêt incendiée). Pour garantir un niveau acceptable de réalisme, les données spatiales utilisées dans l’ES doivent absolument provenir d’un SIG (Système d’information Géographique). Les planificateurs réels comme les pompiers ou les bulldozers sont simulés par des agents logiciels qui raisonnent sur l’espace modélisé par l’ES. Pour une meilleure sensibilité spatiale (pour tenir compte de toutes les contraintes du terrain), les agents logiciels sont dotés de capacités avancées telles que la perception. En utilisant une approche par géosimulation multiagent, nous pouvons générer une simulation réaliste du plan à exécuter. Les décideurs humains peuvent visualiser les conséquences probables de l’exécution de ce plan. Ils peuvent ainsi évaluer le plan et éventuellement l’ajuster avant son exécution effective (sur le terrain). Quand le plan est en cours d’exécution, et afin de garantir la cohérence des données entre l’ER et l’ES, nous gardons trace sur l’ES des positions (sur l’ER) des planificateurs réels (en utilisant les technologies du positionnement géoréférencé). Nous relançons la planification du reste du plan à partir de la position courante de planificateur réel, et ce de façon périodique. Ceci est fait dans le but d’anticiper tout problème qui pourrait survenir à cause de l’aspect dynamique de l’ER. Nous améliorons ainsi le processus classique de l’approche DCP (Distributed Continual Planning). Enfin, les agents de l’ES doivent replanifier aussitôt qu’un événement imprévu est rapporté. Étant donné que les plans générés dans le cas étudié (feux de forêts) sont essentiellement des chemins, nous proposons également une approche basée sur la géosimulation orientée agent pour résoudre des problèmes particuliers de Pathfinding (recherche de chemin). De plus, notre approche souligne les avantages qu’apporte la géosimulation orientée agent à la collaboration entre agents humains et agents logiciels. Plus précisément, elle démontre : • Comment la cognition spatiale des agents logiciels sensibles à l’espace peut être complémentaire avec la cognition spatiale des planificateurs humains. • Comment la géosimulation orientée agent peut complémenter les capacités humaines de planification lors de la résolution de problèmes complexes. Finalement, pour appliquer notre approche au cas des feux de forêts, nous avons utilisé MAGS comme plate-forme de géosimulation et Prometheus comme simulateur du feu. Les principales contributions de cette thèse sont : 1. Une architecture (ENCASMA) originale pour la conception et l’implémentation d’applications (typiquement des applications de lutte contre les désastres naturels) dans un espace géographique réel à grande échelle et dynamique. 2. Une approche basée sur les agents logiciels pour des problèmes de Pathfinding (recherche de chemin) particuliers (dans un environnement réel et à forte composante spatiale, soumis à des contraintes qualitatives). 3. Une amélioration de l’approche de planification DCP (plus particulièrement le processus de continuité) afin de remédier à certaines limites de la DCP classique. 4. Une solution pratique pour un problème réel et complexe : la lutte contre les feux de forêts. Cette nouvelle solution permet aux experts du domaine de mieux planifier d’avance les actions de lutte et aussi de surveiller l’exécution du plan en temps réel.Planning becomes complex when addressing uncertain situations. Accurate predictions remain a hard task for human planners. The Simulation-Based Planning approach consists in associating planning and simulation. Each generated plan is simulated in order to be tested and evaluated. The most appropriate plan is kept. The problem is even more complex when considering spatial constraints. For example, when fighting a wildfire, dozers build a firebreak to stop fire propagation. They have to take into account not only the fire spread but also the terrain characteristics in order to move easily. We propose an agent-based geosimulation approach to assist such planners with planning under strong spatial constraints in a real large-scale space. Forest fire fighting is a typical problem involving planning within an uncertain real world under strong spatial constraints. We use this case to illustrate our approach (ENCASM). The approach consists in drawing a parallel between the Real Environment RE (i.e. a forest in fire) and the Simulated Environment SE (i.e. a virtual reproduction of the forest). Spatial data within the SE should absolutely come from a GIS (Geographic Information System) for more realism. Real planners such as firefighters or dozers are simulated using software agents which reason about the space of the SE. To achieve a sufficient spatial awareness (taking into account all terrain’s features), agents have advanced capabilities such as perception. Using a multiagent geosimulation approach, we can generate a realistic simulation of the plan so that human decision makers can visualize the probable consequences of its execution. They can thus evaluate the plan and adjust it before it can effectively be executed. When the plan is in progress and in order to maintain coherence between RE and SE, we keep track in the SE of the real planners’ positions in the RE (using georeferencing technologies). We periodically replan the rest of the plan starting from the current position of the real planner. This is done in order to anticipate any problem which could occur due to the dynamism of the RE. We thus enhance the process of the classical Distributed Continual Planning DCP. Finally, the agents must replan as soon as an unexpected event is reported by planners within the RE. Since plans in the studied case (forest fires) are mainly paths, we propose a new approach based on agent geosimulation to solve particular Pathfinding problems. Besides, our approach highlights the benefits of the agent-based geo-simulation to the collaboration of both humans and agents. It thus shows: • How spatial cognitions of both spatially aware agents and human planners can be complementary. • How agent-based geo-simulation can complement human planning skills when addressing complex problems. Finally, when applying our approach on firefighting, we use MAGS as a simulation platform and Prometheus as a fire simulator. The main contributions of this thesis are: 1. An original architecture (ENCASMA) for the design and the implementation of applications (typically, natural disasters applications) in real, dynamic and large-scale geographic spaces. 2. An agent-based approach for particular Pathfinding problems (within real and spatially constrained environments and under qualitative constraints). 3. An enhancement of the DCP (particularly, the continual process) approach in order to overcome some limits of the classical DCP. 4. A practical solution for a real and complex problem: wildfires fighting. This new solution aims to assist experts when planning firefighting actions and monitoring the execution of these plans

Minimum time search of moving targets in uncertain environments

Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Informática, Departamento de Arquitectura de Computadores y Automática, leída el 19-07-2013Esta tesis aborda el desarrollo de un sistema autónomo para buscar un objetivo móvil en el menor tiempo posible sobre un entorno con incertidumbre, es decir, para resolver el problema de búsqueda de tiempo mínimo, que se presenta como un problema especial dentro de la teoría de búsqueda óptima. Se propone una solución Bayesiana para encontrar el objetivo utilizando varios agentes móviles con dinámica restringida provistos de sensores que proporcionan información del entorno. La búsqueda de tiempo mínimo involucra dos procesos: la estimación de la ubicación del objetivo a partir de la información recogida por los agentes que cooperan en la búsqueda, y el diseño de la planificación de las rutas que deben seguir los agentes para encontrar el objetivo. La estimación de la ubicación del objetivo se aborda utilizando técnicas Bayesianas, más específicamente, el filtro recursivo Bayesiano. Además, se propone un filtro de información, basado en el filtro de Kalman extendido, que afronta el problema de los retrasos en la comunicación (problema de medidas desordenadas). La planificación de las trayectorias de los agentes se plantea como un problema de decisión secuencial donde, a partir de la estimación de la ubicación del objetivo, se calculan las mejores acciones que los agentes tienen que realizar. Para ello se proponen tres estrategias Bayesianas: minimización del tiempo local de detección esperado, maximización de la probabilidad de detección descontada por una función dependiente del tiempo, y optimización de una función probabilística que integra una heurística que aproxima la observación esperada. Para implementar las estrategias se proponen tres soluciones. La primera, basada en la programación con restricciones, ofrece soluciones exactas para el caso discreto cuando el objeto es estático y el número de variables de decisión pequeño. La segunda es un algoritmo aproximado construido a partir del método de optimización de entropía cruzada que aborda el caso discreto para objetos dinámicos. La tercera es un algoritmo descentralizado basado en el método del gradiente que calcula decisiones en un horizonte limitado, teniendo en cuenta el futuro, en el caso continuo. Los problemas de búsqueda de tiempo mínimo se encuentran en el planteamiento de muchas aplicaciones reales, como son las operaciones de emergencia de búsqueda y rescate (p.e. rescate de náufragos en accidentes marítimos) o el control de la difusión de sustancias contaminantes (p.e. monitorización de derrames de petróleo). Esta tesis muestra cómo reducir el tiempo de búsqueda de un objeto móvil de forma eficiente, determinando qué estrategias de búsqueda tienen en cuenta el tiempo y bajo qué condiciones son válidas, y proporcionando algoritmos polinómicos que calculen las acciones que los agentes tienen que realizar para encontrar el objeto.This thesis is concerned with the development of an autonomous system to search a dynamic target in the minimum possible time in uncertain environments, that is, to solve the minimum time search problem, which is presented as an especial problem within the optimal search theory. This work proposes a Bayesian approach to nd the target using several moving agents with constrained dynamics and equipped with sensors that provide information about the environment. The minimum time search involves two process: the target location estimation using the information collected by the agents, and the planning of the searching routes that the agents must follow to nd the target. The target location estimation is tackled using Bayesian techniques, more precisely, the recursive Bayesian lter. Moreover, an improved information lter, based on the extended Kalman lter, that deals with the team communication delays (i.e. out of sequence problem) is presented. The agents trajectory planning is faced as a sequential decision making problem where, given the a priori target location estimation, the best actions that the agents have to perform are computed. For that purpose, three Bayesian strategies are proposed: minimizing the local expected time of detection, maximizing the discounted time probability of detection, and optimizing a probabilistic function that integrates an heuristic that approximates the expected observation. To implement the strategies, three solutions are proposed. The rst one, based on constraint programming, provides exact solutions in the discrete case when the target is static and the number of decision variables is small. The second one is an approximated algorithm stood on the cross entropy optimization method that tackles the discrete case for dynamic targets. The third solution is a gradient-based decentralized algorithm that achieves non-myopic solutions for the continuous case. The minimum time search problems are found inside the core of many real applications, such as search and rescue emergency operations (e.g. shipwreck accidents) or pollution substances di usion control (e.g. oil spill monitoring). This thesis reveals how to reduce the searching time of a moving target e ciently, determining which searching strategies take into account the time and under which conditions are valid, and providing approximated polynomial algorithms to compute the actions that the agents must perform to find the target.Depto. de Arquitectura de Computadores y AutomáticaFac. de InformáticaTRUEunpu

Modeling and Analyzing Systemic Risk in Complex Sociotechnical Systems The Role of Teleology, Feedback, and Emergence

Recent systemic failures such as the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill, Global Financial Crisis, and Northeast Blackout have reminded us, once again, of the fragility of complex sociotechnical systems. Although the failures occurred in very different domains and were triggered by different events, there are, however, certain common underlying mechanisms of abnormalities driving these systemic failures. Understanding these mechanisms is essential to avoid such disasters in the future. Moreover, these disasters happened in sociotechnical systems, where both social and technical elements can interact with each other and with the environment. The nonlinear interactions among these components can lead to an “emergent” behavior – i.e., the behavior of the whole is more than the sum of its parts – that can be difficult to anticipate and control. Abnormalities can propagate through the systems to cause systemic failures. To ensure the safe operation and production of such complex systems, we need to understand and model the associated systemic risk. Traditional emphasis of chemical engineering risk modeling is on the technical components of a chemical plant, such as equipment and processes. However, a chemical plant is more than a set of equipment and processes, with the human elements playing a critical role in decision-making. Industrial statistics show that about 70% of the accidents are caused by human errors. So, new modeling techniques that go beyond the classical equipment/process-oriented approaches to include the human elements (i.e., the “socio” part of the sociotechnical systems) are needed for analyzing systemic risk of complex sociotechnical systems. This thesis presents such an approach. This thesis presents a new knowledge modeling paradigm for systemic risk analysis that goes beyond chemical plants by unifying different perspectives. First, we develop a unifying teleological, control theoretic framework to model decision-making knowledge in a complex system. The framework allows us to identify systematically the common failure mechanisms behind systemic failures in different domains. We show how cause-and-effect knowledge can be incorporated into this framework by using signed directed graphs. We also develop an ontology-driven knowledge modeling component and show how this can support decision-making by using a case study in public health emergency. This is the first such attempt to develop an ontology for public health documents. Lastly, from a control-theoretic perspective, we address the question, “how do simple individual components of a system interact to produce a system behavior that cannot be explained by the behavior of just the individual components alone?” Through this effort, we attempt to bridge the knowledge gap between control theory and complexity science