Rainfall-runoff modelling using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

This paper discusses the working mechanism of ANFIS, the flow of research, the implementation and evaluation of ANFIS models, and discusses the pros and cons of each option of input parameters applied, in order to solve the problem of rainfall-runoff forecasting. The rainfall-runoff modelling considers time-series data of rainfall amount (in mm) and water discharge amount (in m3/s). For model parameters, the models apply three triangle membership functions for each input. Meanwhile, the accuracy of the data is measured using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Models with good performance in training have low values of RMSE. Hence, the 4-input model data is the best model to measure prediction accurately with the value of RMSE as 22.157. It is proven that ANFIS has the potential to be used for flood forecasting generally, or rainfall-runoff modelling specifically

Discrimination of Water Surfaces, Heavy Rainfall, and Wet Snow Using COSMO-SkyMed Observations of Severe Weather Events

An automatic method to distinguish water surfaces (either flooded or permanent water bodies) from artifacts caused by heavy precipitation and wet snow is designed to improve flood detection accuracy in X-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. The algorithm implementing the proposed method, mainly based on image segmentation techniques and on the fuzzy logic, consists of two principal steps: 1) detection of regions (or segments) of low-radar backscatter that appear dark in a SAR image, and 2) classification of each detected segment. Ancillary data, such as a local incidence angle map, a land cover map, and an optical image (helpful to detect wet snow), are also used. Through the fuzzy logic, the algorithm integrates different rules for the detection of dark areas, as well as for their classification based on radiometric, geometrical and shape features extracted from the segmented SAR image and on the ancillary data. The algorithm is tested on the COSMO-SkyMed imagery of the severe weather event that hit Northwest Italy on November 2011. A comparison with measured data, provided by the weather radars belonging to the Italian radar national network, and with the ground precipitation, forecasted by a numerical weather prediction model routinely used within the framework of the EUMETSAT Hydrology Satellite Application Facility project, indicates that the algorithm produces reliable classification maps, being able to distinguish the rainfall signature on X-band SAR images from that of flooded areas

Earthquake damage assessment in urban area from Very High Resolution satellite data

The use of remote sensing within the domain of natural hazards and disaster management has become increasingly popular, due in part to increased awareness of environmental issues, including climate change, but also to the improvement of geospatial technologies and the ability to provide high quality imagery to the public through the media and internet. As technology is enhanced, demand and expectations increase for near-real-time monitoring and images to be relayed to emergency services in the event of a natural disaster. During a seismic event, in particular, it is fundamental to obtain a fast and reliable map of the damage of urban areas to manage civil protection interventions. Moreover, the identification of the destruction caused by an earthquake provides seismology and earthquake engineers with informative and valuable data, experiences and lessons in the long term. An accurate survey of damage is also important to assess the economic losses, and to manage and share the resources to be allocated during the reconstruction phase. Satellite remote sensing can provide valuable pieces of information on this regard, thanks to the capability of an instantaneous synoptic view of the scene, especially if the seismic event is located in remote regions, or if the main communication systems are damaged. Many works exist in the literature on this topic, considering both optical data and radar data, which however put in evidence some limitations of the nadir looking view, of the achievable level of details and response time, and the criticality of image radiometric and geometric corrections. The visual interpretation of optical images collected before and after a seismic event is the approach followed in many cases, especially for an operational and rapid release of the damage extension map. Many papers, have evaluated change detection approaches to estimate damage within large areas (e.g., city blocks), trying to quantify not only the extension of the affected area but also the level of damage, for instance correlating the collapse ratio (percentage of collapsed buildings in an area) measured on ground with some change parameters derived from two images, taken before and after the earthquake. Nowadays, remotely sensed images at Very High Resolution (VHR) may in principle enable production of earthquake damage maps at single-building scale. The complexity of the image forming mechanisms within urban settlements, especially of radar images, makes the interpretation and analysis of VHR images still a challenging task. Discrimination of lower grade of damage is particularly difficult using nadir looking sensors. Automatic algorithms to detect the damage are being developed, although as matter of fact, these works focus very often on specific test cases and sort of canonical situations. In order to make the delivered product suitable for the user community, such for example Civil Protection Departments, it is important to assess its reliability on a large area and in different and challenging situations. Moreover, the assessment shall be directly compared to those data the final user adopts when carrying out its operational tasks. This kind of assessment can be hardly found in the literature, especially when the main focus is on the development of sophisticated and advanced algorithms. In this work, the feasibility of earthquake damage products at the scale of individual buildings, which relies on a damage scale recognized as a standard, is investigated. To this aim, damage maps derived from VHR satellite images collected by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and optical sensors, were systematically compared to ground surveys carried out by different teams and with different purposes and protocols. Moreover, the inclusion of a priori information, such as vulnerability models for buildings and soil geophysical properties, to improve the reliability of the resulting damage products, was considered in this study. The research activity presented in this thesis was carried out in the framework of the APhoRISM (Advanced PRocedures for volcanIc Seismic Monitoring) project, funded by the European Union under the EC-FP7 call. APhoRISM was aimed at demonstrating that an appropriate management and integration of satellite and ground data can provide new improved products useful for seismic and volcanic crisis management

Flood Extent and Volume Estimation using Multi-Temporal Synthetic Aperture Radar.

Ph. D. Thesis.Satellite imagery has the potential to monitor flooding across wide geographical regions. Recent launches have improved the spatial and temporal resolution of available data, with the European Space Agency (ESA) Copernicus programme providing global imagery at no end-user cost. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is of particular interest due to its ability to map flooding independent of weather conditions. Satellite-derived flood observations have real-world application in flood risk management and validation of hydrodynamic models. This thesis presents a workflow for estimating flood extent, depth and volume utilising ESA Sentinel-1 SAR imagery. Flood extents are extracted using a combination of change detection, variable histogram thresholding and object-based region growing. An innovative technique has been developed for estimating flood shoreline heights by combining the inundation extents with high-resolution terrain data. A grid-based framework is used to derive the water surface from the shoreline heights, from which water depth and volume are calculated. The methodology is applied to numerous catchments across the north of England that suffered from severe flooding throughout the winter of 2015-16. Extensive flooding has been identified throughout the study region, with peak inundation occurring on 29th December 2015. On this date, over 100 km2 of flooding is identified in the Ouse catchment, equating to a water volume of 0.18 km3. The SAR flood extents are validated against satellite optical imagery, achieving a Total Accuracy of 91% and a Critical Success Index of 77%. The derived water surfaces have an average error of 3 cm and an RMSE of 98 cm compared to river stage measurements. The methods developed are robust and globally applicable, shown with an additional study along the Mackenzie River in Australia. The presented methodology, alongside the increased temporal resolution provided by Sentinel-1, highlights the potential for accurate, reliable mapping of flood dynamics using satellite imagery.NERC, (DREAM) CD