Decoupling of economic growth from CO₂ emissions in Yangtze River Economic Belt cities

Cities play significant roles in mitigating global climate change and formulating low carbon roadmaps. As the first regional strategy that prioritizes green development, the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) is an economic circle along the Yangtze River, stringing up 11 provinces and municipalities from west to east of China. The huge regional heterogeneity in terms of economic development, size, and structure in YREB cities need differentiated emission reduction strategies and low-carbon development pathways. This study compiled the CO2 emission inventories of 85 cities in the YREB for the first time and explored the decoupling of economic growth from CO2 emissions at the city level. The results show that CO2 emissions of YREB cities increased at an annual average rate of 5.1% from 2005 to 2017, and 85 YREB cities emitted 44% of national total CO2 emissions and contributed 41% of national GDP in 2017. 61% of cities dominated by high-tech and service industry achieved decoupling between economic development and emissions before 2009 and are moving forward to a stronger decoupling state. 25% of cities achieved decoupling after 2009 and these post-decoupling cities took the heavy industry and light industry as their leading industries. Resource-based cities with slow economic development and high CO2 emissions changed from decoupling to negative decoupling or coupling. The proposed differentiated low-carbon development pathways for YREB cities could provide references for cities at different stages to achieve decoupling of GDP from CO2 emissions and emission reduction goals

Decoupling of economic growth and emissions in China’s cities: A case study of the Central Plains urban agglomeration

Recently, the economy has grown rapidly in China’s Central Plains urban agglomeration, with high energy consumption and a huge pressure on reducing CO2 emissions. Thus, low-carbon development is an important measure to solve economic, energy and environmental problems. To analyse low-emission development, this paper clarifies the evolutionary characteristics of CO2 emissions and the decoupling relationship between GDP and CO2 emissions based on the latest available data from 2000 to 2015. The results indicate that CO2 emissions of Pingdingshan and Changzhi are higher in the same year. The ratios from coal consumption accounting for the total CO2 emissions are clearly bigger than from other energy types and industrial processes. Changzhi, Luoyang and Pingdingshan have reached their peaks. Five cities have experienced strong decoupling after 2010, 13 cities present weak decoupling, 4 cities present growth connection, and 7 cities show growth negative decoupling. It can be concluded that a relatively smaller proportion of industry and strict policy implementations of coal reduction are the main factors in inhibiting the decoupling. So the proportion of coal purification should be increased firstly. Then, the energy consumption structure should be changed from the traditional coal consumption structure to coal, oil and gas. Lastly, economic means can be used to control CO2 emissions

Policies to Reduce CO2 Emissions: Fallacies and Evidence from the United States and California

Since the 1990s, advocates of policy to prevent catastrophic climate change have been divided over the appropriate economic instruments to curb CO2 emissions-carbon taxes or schemes of emission trading. Barack Obama claimed that policies implemented during his presidency set in motion irreversible trends toward a clean-energy economy, with the years 2008-2015 given as evidence of decoupling between CO2 emissions and economic growth. This is despite California being the only state in the USA that has implemented a specific policy to curb emissions, a cap-and-trade scheme in place since 2013. To assess Obama's claims and the effectiveness of policies to reduce CO2 emissions, we analyze national and state-level data from the USA over the period 1990-2015. We find: (a) annual changes in emissions strongly correlated with the growth conditions of the economy; (b) no evidence for decoupling; and (c) a trajectory of CO2 emissions in California which does not at all support the claim that the cap-and-trade system implemented there has reduced CO2 emissions.Series: SRE - Discussion Paper

Analysis of the main drivers of CO2 emissions in different economies : the Spain and Chile cases

El cambio climático (CC) es uno de los grandes desafíos de la humanidad y una de las principales amenazas para el desarrollo sostenible, con grandes consecuencias económicas, sociales y ambientales. Por esta razón, es necesario reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) a la atmósfera, con el dióxido de carbono (CO2) como el principal gas, y obtener una mayor eficiencia energética. Ambas acciones son clave para mitigar el cambio climático. Para conocer con precisión las relaciones entre las variables económicas, demográficas y el volumen de emisiones de GEI que posibilitan el desacoplamiento entre el crecimiento económico y estas emisiones, es necesario medir estas interacciones. A través de estas mediciones, será posible diseñar proyectos energéticos que ayuden a cumplir los objetivos propuestos y llevar a cabo un análisis de los principales determinantes que podrían llevar a conclusiones que ayuden a establecer líneas de acción. El objetivo de este proyecto de tesis doctoral es analizar los determinantes de las emisiones de CO2 en dos economías; la española y la chilena. Esta elección se debe al proyecto de investigación existente entre nuestro grupo de investigación y la Universidad Autónoma de Chile. Las principales contribuciones de esta tesis pueden resumirse brevemente de la siguiente manera: Por un lado, presentamos un análisis de los principales factores determinantes de las emisiones de CO2 en España para el período 1995-2009. Esta investigación lleva a cabo un análisis multisectorial basado en el método Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI I). Los factores de descomposición utilizados representan la carbonización del mix energético (CI), la intensidad del uso de la energía (EI), la estructura económica (ES), la actividad económica (EA) y la población (P). Los principales hallazgos muestran que las fuentes de energía renovables (RES, por sus siglas en inglés) actuaron como compensador de los impulsores de las emisiones de CO2. La tendencia positiva de la contribución de las RES en la matriz energética de España, junto con la tendencia negativa en el uso de combustibles fósiles, nos lleva a ser optimistas. Por otro lado, presentamos una evaluación de las emisiones de CO2 en Chile entre 1991 y 2013 utilizando un análisis basado en el método (LMDI I) para examinar las emisiones y sus componentes. Se consideraron seis factores de descomposición: efecto intensidad de carbono (CI), efecto penetración de RES (RES), efecto intensidad de energía (EI), efecto estructura de la economía (ES), efecto ingreso (Yp) y efecto población (P). Para saber cómo estos factores podrían influirse mutuamente en el futuro, se utilizó el Innovative Accounting Approach (IAA), que incluye el análisis de la descomposición de la varianza y la función impulso-respuesta (IRF, pos sus siglas en inglés). Estas dos metodologías nos permiten identificar las causas de los cambios en las emisiones de CO2 en el periodo (1991-2013), evaluar las medidas de política y aprender cómo estos factores podrían influirse mutuamente en el futuro, para evaluar si las medidas actuales cumplen los compromisos de París. Los resultados del análisis LMDI muestran que el factor intensidad de energía es el principal factor de compensación de las emisiones de CO2 en Chile y el único efecto con una clara tendencia a ayudar al desacoplamiento entre crecimiento económico y emisiones de GHG. Los resultados del IAA e IFRs se comportan de manera similar y confirman que el factor intensidad de carbono reacciona a los impactos de manera más significativa en el corto plazo. La reacción a RES tiene el mismo comportamiento y opuesto a los shocks en ES y Yp, para desaparecer a largo plazo. Estos hallazgos representan una contribución importante, no sólo para los investigadores sino también para las empresas y responsables políticos. Para nuestro conocimiento no existen análisis previos de los principales impulsores de CO2 en estas economías. Estos resultados podrían conducir a conclusiones que ayuden a establecer líneas de acción para diseñar proyectos energéticos que ayuden a luchar eficazmente contra el cambio climático.Change (CC) is one of the great challenges of humanity and one of the main threats to sustainable development, with great economic, social and environmental consequences. For this reason, it is necessary to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the atmosphere, with carbon dioxide (CO2) the main one, and obtain greater awareness of energy efficiency. Both actions are key to mitigate climate change. In order to know precisely the relationships between economic, demographic variables and the volume of GHG emissions to make possible the decoupling between economic growth and these emissions, it is necessary to develop indicators capable of analyzing these interactions. Through these indicators, it will be possible to design energy projects that help to meet the proposed objectives and carry out an analysis of the main determinants that could lead to conclusions that help to establish lines of action. The aim of this doctoral thesis project is to analyze the determinants of CO2 emissions in two economies: Spanish and Chilean. This choice is due to the existing research project between our research group and Universidad Autónoma de Chile. The main contributions of this thesis can be briefly summarized as follows: On the one hand, we present an analysis of main drivers of CO2 emissions in Spain for the 1995–2009 period. This research carries out a multisector analysis based on the Log-Mean Divisia Index Method (LMDI I). The decomposition factors used are the Carbon Intensity factor (CI), the Energy Intensity factor (EI), the structural composition of Spain's economy (Economy Structure, ES), the Economic Activity factor (EA) and Population (P), respectively. Major findings show that renewable energy sources (RES) acted as a compensating factor of the drivers of CO2 emissions. The positive trend for the share of RES in Spain's energy matrix, together with the negative tendency in the use of fossil fuels, leads us to be optimistic. On the second hand, we present an evaluation of the performance of Chile's CO2 emissions between 1991 and 2013 using an analysis based on log-mean divisia index method (LMDI I) to examine emissions and their components. Six decomposition factors were considered: Carbon Intensity effect (CI), RES penetration effect (RES), Energy Intensity effect (EI), Economy Structure effect (ES), Income effect (Yp) and Population effect (P). To know how these factors could influence each other in the future, the Innovative Accounting Approach (IAA) was used, including forecast error variance decomposition and Impulse Response Functions (IRFs). These two methodologies allow us to identify the drivers of CO2 emission changes in the past (1991–2013), test policy measures and learn how these drivers could influence each other in the future, to evaluate whether the current measures meet the Paris Agreement’s commitments. The LMDI analysis results show that the Energy Intensity Factor is the main compensating factor of Chile's CO2 emissions and the only effect with a clear trend to aid the decoupling between economic growth and GHG emissions. IAA and IFRs results react similarly and confirm that carbon intensity reacts to shocks more significantly in the short term. The reaction to RES has the same and opposite behavior to shocks in ES and Yp, to disappear in the long term. These finding represent a major contribution, not only for researchers but also for companies and policy makers. To the best of our knowledge there are no previous analyzes of the main drivers of CO2 in these economies. Results could lead to establish lines of action in order to design energy projects that help to fight against climate change

Polluting emissions and GDP : decoupling evidence from brazilian states

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and GDP in Brazil using both aggregate and state-level data. The trend or Kuznets elasticity is about 0.8 for Brazil, higher than that in advanced countries but below that of major emerging markets. The elasticity is somewhat higher for consumption-based emissions than for production-based emissions, providing evidence against the “pollution haven” hypothesis. Additional evidence comes from state-level data analysis where one can observe a great deal of heterogeneity but also some hope as far as decoupling is concerned. In addition to the trend relationship between emissions and output, we find that there does not seem to exist a cyclical relationship holding in Brazil at the aggregate level (despite having become more procyclical over time), but it does exist in a few states.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Decoupling economic growth and environmental degradation : reviewing progress to date in the small island state of Malta

This paper considers the challenge of decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation; in contrast to several large-scale cross-country analyses that focus on limited indicators of environmental degradation, we analyze in some depth the experience of a single small-scale island state setting (Malta). We use available statistical data to derive decoupling factors, in order to consider the extent to which decoupling has been achieved in four sectors: (i) energy intensity, climate change, and air quality; (ii) water; (iii) waste; and (iv) land. Results indicate relative decoupling between economic growth and several indicators considered, and to a lesser extent, relative decoupling between population growth and the same indicators of environmental pressure. Absolute decoupling has been achieved in at least one instance but there has been no decoupling of land development from either economic or population growth. Land use and population thus appear to be notable sources of pressure. The results suggest that decoupling analyses that present environmental degradation in terms of single variables (e.g., carbon emissions) may misrepresent somewhat the state of the environment at local level. Furthermore, the study highlights the need for methodologies that factor in the "embedding" of small-scale settings within much larger trade networks, for a more accurate estimation of environmental impact, and points to some limitations of solely quantitative analyses of environment-ecology relationships.peer-reviewe

The climate change challenge and transitions for radical changes in the European steel industry

Cet article vise à identifier les transitions technologiques en cours dans la sidérurgie européenne. Les limites actuelles du système socio-technique centré autour du haut-fourneau, impliquent en effet des changements dans les modes production, de distribution et de consommation d'acier. L'agenda évolue de la recherche de process plus propre (« cleaner production ») vers des innovations de système. Les technologies radicales ULCOS (Ultra Low CO2 Steelmaking) doivent répondre à la modification de l'environnement de sélection mais leur adoption et diffusion dépendra fortement du niveau de la contrainte « carbone » et des fondamentaux identifiés par l'économie industrielle et l'approche évolutionniste.Les experts du secteur ont aussi identifié le besoin d'un agenda de recherche dédié aux modes de consommation de matériaux à long terme. L'évolution du contenu en matériaux et énergie des infrastructures, produits et services (mobilité, logement, chauffage, éclairage...) est fortement susceptible d'évoluer, en particulier dans le cadre de contraintes « carbone » fortes. L'approche « PSS » ou « product-service-system » dans le transport et la construction peut devenir une opportunité pour la sidérurgie du 21eme siècle.changement climatique;eco-efficacité;industrie sidérurgique;innovation

SOME REFLECTIONS ON CLIMATE CHANGE, GREEN GROWTH ILLUSIONS AND DEVELOPMENT SPACE

Many economists and policy makers advocate a fundamental shift towards “green growth” as the new, qualitatively-different growth paradigm, based on enhanced material/resource/energy efficiency and drastic changes in the energy mix. “Green growth” may work well in creating new growth impulses with reduced environmental load and facilitating related technological and structural change. But can it also mitigate climate change at the required scale (i.e. significant, absolute and permanent decline of GHG emissions at global level) and pace? This paper argues that growth, technological, population-expansion and governance constraints as well as some key systemic issues cast a very long shadow on the “green growth” hopes. One should not deceive oneself into believing that such evolutionary (and often reductionist) approach will be sufficient to cope with the complexities of climate change. It may rather give much false hope and excuses to do nothing really fundamental that can bring about a U-turn of global GHG emissions. The proponents of a resource efficiency revolution and a drastic change in the energy mix need to scrutinize the historical evidence, in particular the arithmetic of economic and population growth. Furthermore, they need to realize that the required transformation goes beyond innovation and structural changes to include democratization of the economy and cultural change. Climate change calls into question the global equality of opportunity for prosperity (i.e. ecological justice and development space) and is thus a huge developmental challenge for the South and a question of life and death for some developing countries (who increasingly resist the framing of climate protection versus equity).