Hybrid threats, cyber warfare and NATO's comprehensive approach for countering 21st century threats: mapping the new frontier of global risk and security management

The end of the so-called ‘Cold War’ has seen a change in the nature of present threats and with it to the overall role and mission of NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact in 1991 also removed the original raison d’etre of the Alliance: the prospect of having to repel a Soviet led attack by the Warsaw Pact on the West through the so called ‘Fulda gap’ in Germany (referring to the German lowlands between Frankfurt am Main and the former East German border which was regarded as the most likely terrain for an armour led Soviet breakout) was replaced by the recognition of the need to counter new – often hybrid – threats, which have little in common with bygone acts of interstate aggression. These new, modern threats to global peace, prosperity and security seriously threaten the present steady state environment at home (before the backdrop of the ongoing asymmetric conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq) and warrant a comprehensive, multi-stakeholder driven response. Multimodal, low intensity, kinetic as well as non-kinetic threats to international peace and security including cyber war, low intensity asymmetric conflict scenarios, global terrorism, piracy, transnational organized crime, demographic challenges, resources security, retrenchment from globalization and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction were identified by NATO as so called “Hybrid Threats” (cf BI-SC Input for a New NATO Capstone Concept for The Military Contribution to Countering Hybrid Enclosure 1 to 1500/CPPCAM/FCR/10-270038 and 5000 FXX/0100/TT-0651/SER: NU0040, dated 25 August 2010). NATO’s Bi-Strategic Command Capstone Concept describes these Hybrid Threats as ‘those posed by adversaries, with the ability to simultaneously employ conventional and non-conventional means adaptively in pursuit of their objectives.’ (See Hybrid Threats Description in 1500/CPPCAM/FCR/10-270038 and 5000 FXX/0100/TT-0651/SER: NU0040 dated 25 August 2010: Paragraph 7). Having identified this kind of emerging threat, NATO is working on a comprehensive conceptual framework, (the Capstone Concept) which provides the framework for identifying and discussing such threats and possible multi-stakeholder responses. In essence, Hybrid Threats faced by NATO and its non-military partners require a comprehensive approach allowing a wide spectrum of responses, kinetic and non-kinetic by military and non-military actors (see “Updated List of Tasks for the Implementation of the Comprehensive Approach Action Plan and the Lisbon Summit Decisions on the Comprehensive Approach”, dated 4 march 2011, p 1-10, paragraph 1). NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT) supported by the US Joint Forces Command Joint Irregular Warfare Centre (USJFCOM JIWC) and the US National Defence University (NDU) conducted specialised workshops related to “Assessing Emerging Security Challenges in the Globalised Environment (Countering Hybrid Threats) Experiment” in 2011(cf NATO’s Transnet network on Countering Hybrid Threats (CHT) at https://transnet.act.nato.int/WISE/Transforma1/ACTIPT/JOUIPT). The workshops of the experiment took place in Brussels, Belgium and Tallinn, Estonia and had the aim of identifying possible threats and to discuss some or the key implications that need to be addressed in countering such risks & challenges. Essential is the hypothesis that such a response will have to be in partnership with other stakeholders such as international and regional organizations as well as representatives of business and commerce. This short article introduces the reader to a new form of global threat scenario and the possibilities of response and deterrence within their wider legal and political context

Post-Westgate SWAT : C4ISTAR Architectural Framework for Autonomous Network Integrated Multifaceted Warfighting Solutions Version 1.0 : A Peer-Reviewed Monograph

Police SWAT teams and Military Special Forces face mounting pressure and challenges from adversaries that can only be resolved by way of ever more sophisticated inputs into tactical operations. Lethal Autonomy provides constrained military/security forces with a viable option, but only if implementation has got proper empirically supported foundations. Autonomous weapon systems can be designed and developed to conduct ground, air and naval operations. This monograph offers some insights into the challenges of developing legal, reliable and ethical forms of autonomous weapons, that address the gap between Police or Law Enforcement and Military operations that is growing exponentially small. National adversaries are today in many instances hybrid threats, that manifest criminal and military traits, these often require deployment of hybrid-capability autonomous weapons imbued with the capability to taken on both Military and/or Security objectives. The Westgate Terrorist Attack of 21st September 2013 in the Westlands suburb of Nairobi, Kenya is a very clear manifestation of the hybrid combat scenario that required military response and police investigations against a fighting cell of the Somalia based globally networked Al Shabaab terrorist group.Comment: 52 pages, 6 Figures, over 40 references, reviewed by a reade

Is Ukraine cyber resilient?

Rapid development of technologies and fast digitalization of all spheres of life around the globe increased the importance of providing cyber security at all levels. For example, in 2016 Ukraine was a target for around 7000 cyber attacks targeted at the state’s critical infrustructure, as well as a big number of cyber crimes, according to the government. (Poroshenko, 2017). The growing importance of tackling cyber crimes, events of cyber terrorism, cyber espionage and attacks makes countries and organizations develop new approaches to providing security. One of such approach is cyber resilience, which focuses among others on the inclusion of different actors into the process of confronting cyber threats in order to efficiently and quickly tackle and recover from those same cyber threats. This research contributes to the theoretical and conceptual understanding of cyber resilience as a new approach to addressing cyber threats. It also looks at the national strategy in cyber security of Ukraine with the aim to explain the process of its development and change and define the challenges it faces.http://www.ester.ee/record=b4701238*es

One threat - multiple responses : countering hybrid threats in V4 countries

Nowa dynamika w globalnym środowisku bezpieczeństwa, której towarzyszył powrót do rywalizacji mocarstw i jej wpływ na zapewnienie bezpieczeństwa państw Europy Środkowej, przyniosła nowe wyzwania, zwłaszcza w zakresie przeciwdziałania zagrożeniom hybrydowym. Artykuł przedstawia wyniki badań analizujących strategie przeciwdziałania zagrożeniom hybrydowym w czterech krajach wyszehradzkich: w Czechach, na Węgrzech, w Polsce i na Słowacji. Celem artykułu jest omówienie i wyjaśnienie polityki tych czterech państw w odniesieniu do złożoności wyzwań hybrydowych oraz zdolności ich łagodzenia. Narodowe stanowiska zostały wszechstronnie ocenione w czterech studiach przypadków. Omówiono ich główne podobieństwa i kluczowe różnice. Wniosek z przeprowadzonych badań wskazuje na to, że chociaż kraje V4 mają te same podstawy koncepcyjno-teoretyczne, to polityki wobec zagrożenia hybrydowego są różne. Autorzy proponują sprawniejsze działanie na poziomie krajowym oraz poprawę koordynacji między krajami V4.The new dynamics in the global security environment accompanied by the renewal of great power competition and its impact on security provision of Central European countries brought new challenges, especially in countering hybrid threats. The article embraces the outcome of a multilateral research analysing countering hybrid threat policies in the four Visegrad countries: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. The goal of the article is to discuss and explain the four nations' policies towards the mitigation of the hybrid challenges and their complexity. Those national approaches are comprehensively assessed in four case studies and their main commonalities and key differences are discussed. The conclusion is that although the V4 countries have the same conceptual theoretical basis, the policies against the hybrid threat differ. The authors propose more efficient way ahead at the national level and the improvement of coordination between the V4 countries

The Exigency and How to Improve and Implement International Humanitarian Legislations More Advantageously in Times of Both Cyber-warfare and Cyberspace

This study provides a synopsis of the following topics: the prospective limiters levied on cyber-warfare by present–day international legislation; significant complexities and contentions brought up in the rendering & utilization of International Humanitarian Legislation against cyber-warfare; feasible repercussions of cyber-warfare on humanitarian causes. It is also to be contended and outlined in this research study that non–state actors can be held accountable for breaches of international humanitarian legislation committed using cyber–ordnance if sufficient resources and skill are made available. It details the factors that prosecutors and investigators must take into account when organizing investigations into major breaches of humanitarian legislation committed in cyber–space, as well as the jurisdictional components of transgressions of the rules and L.o.A.C (Legislation of Armed Conflict). Due to the limitations imposed by both time and space, the planned analysis cannot be thorough; rather, it will have to remain conservative and concentrate on providing a basic grasp of the topics that are most pertinent to the modern practice of statecraft. Furthermore, given the technical and statutory complication of the subject matter as well as the fact that legal research remains in its infancy, the aspiration of this study should remain low to distinguishing matters and placing those in framework. It cannot be the goal of this study to magisterially resolute the prevailing issues that have arisen

What Ukraine Taught NATO about Hybrid Warfare

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 forced the United States and its NATO partners to be confronted with the impact of hybrid warfare far beyond the battlefield. Targeting Europe’s energy security, Russia’s malign influence campaigns and malicious cyber intrusions are affecting global gas prices, driving up food costs, disrupting supply chains and grids, and testing US and Allied military mobility. This study examines how hybrid warfare is being used by NATO’s adversaries, what vulnerabilities in energy security exist across the Alliance, and what mitigation strategies are available to the member states. Cyberattacks targeting the renewable energy landscape during Europe’s green transition are increasing, making it urgent that new tools are developed to protect these emerging technologies. No less significant are the cyber and information operations targeting energy security in Eastern Europe as it seeks to become independent from Russia. Economic coercion is being used against Western and Central Europe to stop gas from flowing. China’s malign investments in Southern and Mediterranean Europe are enabling Beijing to control several NATO member states’ critical energy infrastructure at a critical moment in the global balance of power. What Ukraine Taught NATO about Hybrid Warfare will be an important reference for NATO officials and US installations operating in the European theater.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1952/thumbnail.jp

Hybrid Warfare

This book is available as open access through the Bloomsbury Open Access programme and is available on www.bloomsburycollections.com. Hybrid Warfare refers to a military strategy that blends conventional warfare, so-called ‘irregular warfare’ and cyber-attacks with other influencing methods, such as fake news, diplomacy and foreign political intervention. As Hybrid Warfare becomes increasingly commonplace, there is an imminent need for research bringing attention to how these challenges can be addressed in order to develop a comprehensive approach towards Hybrid Threats and Hybrid Warfare. This volume supports the development of such an approach by bringing together practitioners and scholarly perspectives on the topic and by covering the threats themselves, as well as the tools and means to counter them, together with a number of real-world case studies. The book covers numerous aspects of current Hybrid Warfare discourses including a discussion of the perspectives of key western actors such as NATO, the US and the EU; an analysis of Russia and China’s Hybrid Warfare capabilities; and the growing threat of cyberwarfare. A range of global case studies – featuring specific examples from the Baltics, Taiwan, Ukraine, Iran and Catalonia – are drawn upon to demonstrate the employment of Hybrid Warfare tactics and how they have been countered in practice. Finally, the editors propose a new method through which to understand the dynamics of Hybrid Threats, Warfare and their countermeasures, termed the ‘Hybridity Blizzard Model’. With a focus on practitioner insight and practicable International Relations theory, this volume is an essential guide to identifying, analysing and countering Hybrid Threats and Warfare

NATO as a global cybersecurity power

The landscape of threats has been undergoing a tremendous change. As the state institutions, infrastructure providers, banks, and companies operate in cyber realm, the security of this realm has become increasingly a main facet of the national security. Even military operations have been entrenched in cyber operations with the articulation of new concepts such as hybrid warfare. US Department’s recognition of attacks on computer networks as an act of war demonstrates the relevance of cybersecurity to security of the states. Similarly, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) included cyberspace as the fourth domain besides air, land, and sea in 2016. Digital authoritarianism promoted by China for the aim of spreading its digital norms across the world and hybrid warfare promulgated to disrupt the stability of the countries located in the post-Soviet space necessitates NATO’s active involvement in cybersecurity realm. In 2021, it unveiled an ambitious NATO 2030 agenda in which NATO positioned itself a global competitor against rising threat of cyberattacks. Since Internet and cyber networks are inherently transnational, responding to cyberthreats requires a global approach. Thus, defining cybersecurity as a priority area is an important step in transforming NATO from a regional organization to a global one. This study aims at examining NATO’s endeavors to tackle cyberthreats and its evolving role in the global arena. The members’ positions in setting up a common approach concerning cybersecurity will determine NATO’s transformation into a global security actor.Publisher's Versio