Confidence level solutions for stochastic programming

We propose an alternative approach to stochastic programming based on Monte-Carlo sampling and stochastic gradient optimization. The procedure is by essence probabilistic and the computed solution is a random variable. The associated objective value is doubly random, since it depends on two outcomes: the event in the stochastic program and the randomized algorithm. We propose a solution concept in which the probability that the randomized algorithm produces a solution with an expected objective value departing from the optimal one by more than $\epsilon$ is small enough. We derive complexity bounds for this process. We show that by repeating the basic process on independent sample, one can significantly sharpen the complexity bounds

Single item stochastic lot sizing problem considering capital flow and business overdraft

This paper introduces capital flow to the single item stochastic lot sizing problem. A retailer can leverage business overdraft to deal with unexpected capital shortage, but needs to pay interest if its available balance goes below zero. A stochastic dynamic programming model maximizing expected final capital increment is formulated to solve the problem to optimality. We then investigate the performance of four controlling policies: ($R, Q$), ($R, S$), ($s, S$) and ($s$, $\overline{Q}$, $S$); for these policies, we adopt simulation-genetic algorithm to obtain approximate values of the controlling parameters. Finally, a simulation-optimization heuristic is also employed to solve this problem. Computational comparisons among these approaches show that policy $(s, S)$ and policy $(s, \overline{Q}, S)$ provide performance close to that of optimal solutions obtained by stochastic dynamic programming, while simulation-optimization heuristic offers advantages in terms of computational efficiency. Our numerical tests also show that capital availability as well as business overdraft interest rate can substantially affect the retailer's optimal lot sizing decisions.Comment: 18 pages, 3 figure

Symmetric confidence regions and confidence intervals for normal map formulations of stochastic variational inequalities

Stochastic variational inequalities (SVI) model a large class of equilibrium problems subject to data uncertainty, and are closely related to stochastic optimization problems. The SVI solution is usually estimated by a solution to a sample average approximation (SAA) problem. This paper considers the normal map formulation of an SVI, and proposes a method to build asymptotically exact confidence regions and confidence intervals for the solution of the normal map formulation, based on the asymptotic distribution of SAA solutions. The confidence regions are single ellipsoids with high probability. We also discuss the computation of simultaneous and individual confidence intervals

On Designing Multicore-aware Simulators for Biological Systems

The stochastic simulation of biological systems is an increasingly popular technique in bioinformatics. It often is an enlightening technique, which may however result in being computational expensive. We discuss the main opportunities to speed it up on multi-core platforms, which pose new challenges for parallelisation techniques. These opportunities are developed in two general families of solutions involving both the single simulation and a bulk of independent simulations (either replicas of derived from parameter sweep). Proposed solutions are tested on the parallelisation of the CWC simulator (Calculus of Wrapped Compartments) that is carried out according to proposed solutions by way of the FastFlow programming framework making possible fast development and efficient execution on multi-cores.Comment: 19 pages + cover pag

Portfolio selection models: A review and new directions

Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is based upon the classical Markowitz model which uses variance as a risk measure. A generalization of this approach leads to mean-risk models, in which a return distribution is characterized by the expected value of return (desired to be large) and a risk value (desired to be kept small). Portfolio choice is made by solving an optimization problem, in which the portfolio risk is minimized and a desired level of expected return is specified as a constraint. The need to penalize different undesirable aspects of the return distribution led to the proposal of alternative risk measures, notably those penalizing only the downside part (adverse) and not the upside (potential). The downside risk considerations constitute the basis of the Post Modern Portfolio Theory (PMPT). Examples of such risk measures are lower partial moments, Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). We revisit these risk measures and the resulting mean-risk models. We discuss alternative models for portfolio selection, their choice criteria and the evolution of MPT to PMPT which incorporates: utility maximization and stochastic dominance