Massive Open Online Courses Temporal Profiling for Dropout Prediction

Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) are attracting the attention of people all over the world. Regardless the platform, numbers of registrants for online courses are impressive but in the same time, completion rates are disappointing. Understanding the mechanisms of dropping out based on the learner profile arises as a crucial task in MOOCs, since it will allow intervening at the right moment in order to assist the learner in completing the course. In this paper, the dropout behaviour of learners in a MOOC is thoroughly studied by first extracting features that describe the behavior of learners within the course and then by comparing three classifiers (Logistic Regression, Random Forest and AdaBoost) in two tasks: predicting which users will have dropped out by a certain week and predicting which users will drop out on a specific week. The former has showed to be considerably easier, with all three classifiers performing equally well. However, the accuracy for the second task is lower, and Logistic Regression tends to perform slightly better than the other two algorithms. We found that features that reflect an active attitude of the user towards the MOOC, such as submitting their assignment, posting on the Forum and filling their Profile, are strong indicators of persistence.Comment: 8 pages, ICTAI1

From participation to dropout

The academic e-learning practice has to deal with various participation patterns and types of online learners with different support needs. The online instructors are challenged to recognize these and react accordingly. Among the participation patterns, special attention is requested by dropouts, which can perturbate online collaboration. Therefore we are in search of a method of early identification of participation patterns and prediction of dropouts. To do this, we use a quantitative view of participation that takes into account only observable variables. On this background we identify in a field study the participation indicators that are relevant for the course completion, i.e. produce significant differences between the completion and dropout sub-groups. Further we identify through cluster analysis four participation patterns with different support needs. One of them is the dropout cluster that could be predicted with an accuracy of nearly 80%. As a practical consequence, this study recommends a simple, easy-to-implement prediction method for dropouts, which can improve online teaching. As a theoretical consequence, we underline the role of the course didactics for the definition of participation, and call for refining previous attrition models

Why Students Drop Out of School: A Review of 25 Years of Research

Reviews research on the underlying causes of the high school dropout crisis -- individual and institutional characteristics that predict whether a student is likely to drop out of high school. Discusses student engagement, deviance, and other models

School-leavers' Transition to Tertiary Study: a Literature Review.

The theoretical and empirical literature relating to factors and problems in the transition of students from secondary to tertiary level education is reviewed here. Studies on persistence and attrition, and on the analysis and prediction of academic performance of students, generally and in particular discipline areas, are included.Transition to university; student performance.

Review of research and evaluation on improving adult literacy and numeracy skills

The purposes of this literature review are threefold. First, this review summarises findings of the research from the last decade in six fields identified by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS) as critical to its forward planning: (1) the economic, personal and social returns to learning; (2) the quality and effectiveness of provision; (3) the number of learning hours needed for skills gain; (4) learner persistence; (5) the retention and loss of skills over time; (6) the literacy and numeracy skills that are needed. Second, this review assesses this evidence base in terms of its quality and robustness, identifying gaps and recommending ways in which the evidence base can be extended and improved. Thirdly, this review attempts to interpret the evidence base to suggest, where possible, how returns to ALN learning for individuals, employers and wider society might be increased through effective and cost-effective interventions

To complete or not complete : Student persistence in post-secondary education online courses

Many factors influence learners\u27 decisions to complete or drop out of online learning courses in higher education where learners\u27 persistence is considered critical to the success of the higher education institutions. This review examines recent literature on the relationship between learners\u27 perceived Sense of Community (SOC), Social Presence, Satisfaction, and Participation and Interactions in distance education courses and learner persistence. Over 30 peer-reviewed studies published in academic journals within the past ten years were selected for critical analysis. Results are mixed and while many studies imply relationships between various learner and institution characteristics and student persistence, significant correlations are often lacking. Given the increasing popularity of on line education in higher education, identifying the characteristics of both successful students and of successful online learning environments warrants further investigation

Dropout, persistence, and retention on online higher education: The case of the Open University of Catalonia

This doctoral thesis focuses on student dropout in online higher education (OHE), with a focus on the experience of students and faculty at the Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC). The thesis is presented as a compendium of six publications that address issues related to dropout, persistence and retention in OHE. A qualitative and exploratory descriptive research design is used that includes in-depth open interviews and qualitative content analysis. The findings highlight the importance of the first year for dropout and persistence, with time-related factors being the main barriers to persistence and reasons for dropout. In addition, persistent students presented different characteristics and dynamics compared to students who dropped out. Various theoretical and practical implications derived from the integrated findings are discussed, including a series of practical recommendations and possible interventions.Esta tesis doctoral se centra en el abandono de estudiantes en la educación superior en línea (ESL), con un enfoque en la experiencia de los estudiantes y profesores en la Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC). La tesis se presenta como un compendio de seis publicaciones que abordan temas relacionados con el abandono, la persistencia y la retención en la ESL. Se utiliza un diseño de investigación cualitativo y exploratorio-descriptivo que incluye entrevistas abiertas en profundidad y análisis de contenido cualitativo. Los hallazgos destacan la importancia del primer año para el abandono y la persistencia, con factores relacionados con el tiempo como las principales barreras para la persistencia y razones para el abandono. Además, los estudiantes persistentes presentan características y dinámicas distintas en comparación con los estudiantes que abandonan. Se discuten varias implicaciones teóricas y prácticas derivadas de los hallazgos integrados, incluyendo una serie de recomendaciones prácticas y posibles intervenciones.Aquesta tesi doctoral se centra en l'abandó d'estudiants a l'educació superior en línia (ESL), amb un enfocament a l'experiència dels estudiants i professors a la Universitat Oberta de Catalunya (UOC). La tesi es presenta com un compendi de sis publicacions que aborden temes relacionats amb l'abandó, la persistència i la retenció a l'ESL. S'utilitza un disseny de recerca qualitatiu i exploratori-descriptiu que inclou entrevistes obertes en profunditat i anàlisi de contingut qualitatiu. Els resultats destaquen la importància del primer any per a l'abandó i la persistència, amb factors relacionats amb el temps com les barreres principals per a la persistència i raons per a l'abandó. A més, els estudiants persistents presenten característiques i dinàmiques diferents en comparació amb els estudiants que abandonen. Es discuteixen diverses implicacions teòriques i pràctiques derivades dels resultats integrats, incloent-hi una sèrie de recomanacions pràctiques i possibles intervencions.e-learnin