Multivariate time series analysis for short-term forecasting of ground level ozone (O3) in Malaysia

The declining of air quality mostly affects the elderly, children, people with asthma, as well as a restriction on outdoor activities. Therefore, there is an importance to provide a statistical modelling to forecast the future values of surface layer ozone (O3) concentration. The objectives of this study are to obtain the best multivariate time series (MTS) model and develop an online air quality forecasting system for O3 concentration in Malaysia. The implementations of MTS model improve the recent statistical model on air quality for short-term prediction. Ten air quality monitoring stations situated at four (4) different types of location were selected in this study. The first type is industrial represent by Pasir Gudang, Perai, and Nilai, second type is urban represent by Kuala Terengganu, Kota Bharu, and Alor Setar. The third is suburban located in Banting, Kangar, and Tanjung Malim, also the only background station at Jerantut. The hourly record data from 2010 to 2017 were used to assess the characteristics and behaviour of O3 concentration. Meanwhile, the monthly record data of O3, particulate matter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), temperature (T), wind speed (WS), and relative humidity (RH) were used to examine the best MTS models. Three methods of MTS namely vector autoregressive (VAR), vector moving average (VMA), and vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA), has been applied in this study. Based on the performance error, the most appropriate MTS model located in Pasir Gudang, Kota Bharu and Kangar is VAR(1), Kuala Terengganu and Alor Setar for VAR(2), Perai and Nilai for VAR(3), Tanjung Malim for VAR(4) and Banting for VAR(5). Only Jerantut obtained the VMA(2) as the best model. The lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized absolute error is 0.0053 and <0.0001 which is for MTS model in Perai and Kuala Terengganu, respectively. Meanwhile, for mean absolute error (MAE), the lowest is in Banting and Jerantut at 0.0013. The online air quality forecasting system for O3 was successfully developed based on the best MTS models to represent each monitoring station

White learning methodology: a case study of cancer-related disease factors analysis in real-time PACS environment

Bayesian network is a probabilistic model of which the prediction accuracy may not be one of the highest in the machine learning family. Deep learning (DL) on the other hand possess of higher predictive power than many other models. How reliable the result is, how it is deduced, how interpretable the prediction by DL mean to users, remain obscure. DL functions like a black box. As a result, many medical practitioners are reductant to use deep learning as the only tool for critical machine learning application, such as aiding tool for cancer diagnosis. In this paper, a framework of white learning is being proposed which takes advantages of both black box learning and white box learning. Usually, black box learning will give a high standard of accuracy and white box learning will provide an explainable direct acyclic graph. According to our design, there are 3 stages of White Learning, loosely coupled WL, semi coupled WL and tightly coupled WL based on degree of fusion of the white box learning and black box learning. In our design, a case of loosely coupled WL is tested on breast cancer dataset. This approach uses deep learning and an incremental version of Naïve Bayes network. White learning is largely defied as a systemic fusion of machine learning models which result in an explainable Bayes network which could find out the hidden relations between features and class and deep learning which would give a higher accuracy of prediction than other algorithms. We designed a series of experiments for this loosely coupled WL model. The simulation results show that using WL compared to standard black-box deep learning, the levels of accuracy and kappa statistics could be enhanced up to 50%. The performance of WL seems more stable too in extreme conditions such as noise and high dimensional data. The relations by Bayesian network of WL are more concise and stronger in affinity too. The experiments results deliver positive signals that WL is possible to output both high classification accuracy and explainable relations graph between features and class. [Abstract copyright: Copyright © 2020. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Improved cuckoo search based neural network learning algorithms for data classification

Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) techniques, mostly Back-Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) algorithm has been used as a tool for recognizing a mapping function among a known set of input and output examples. These networks can be trained with gradient descent back propagation. The algorithm is not definite in finding the global minimum of the error function since gradient descent may get stuck in local minima, where it may stay indefinitely. Among the conventional methods, some researchers prefer Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) because of its convergence speed and performance. On the other hand, LM algorithms which are derivative based algorithms still face a risk of getting stuck in local minima. Recently, a novel meta-heuristic search technique called cuckoo search (CS) has gained a great deal of attention from researchers due to its efficient convergence towards optimal solution. But Cuckoo search is prone to less optimal solution during exploration and exploitation process due to large step lengths taken by CS due to Levy flight. It can also be used to improve the balance between exploration and exploitation of CS algorithm, and to increase the chances of the egg’s survival. This research proposed an improved CS called hybrid Accelerated Cuckoo Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm (HACPSO) with Accelerated particle Swarm Optimization (APSO) algorithm. In the proposed HACPSO algorithm, initially accelerated particle swarm optimization (APSO) algorithm searches within the search space and finds the best sub-search space, and then the CS selects the best nest by traversing the sub-search space. This exploration and exploitation method followed in the proposed HACPSO algorithm makes it to converge to global optima with more efficiency than the original Cuckoo Search (CS) algorithm. Finally, the proposed CS hybrid variants such as; HACPSO, HACPSO-BP, HACPSO-LM, CSBP, CSLM, CSERN, and CSLMERN are evaluated and compared with conventional Back propagation Neural Network (BPNN), Artificial Bee Colony Neural Network (ABCNN), Artificial Bee Colony Back propagation algorithm (ABC-BP), and Artificial Bee Colony Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (ABC-LM). Specifically, 6 benchmark classification datasets are used for training the hybrid Artificial Neural Network algorithms. Overall from the simulation results, it is realized that the proposed CS based NN algorithms performs better than all other proposed and conventional models in terms of CPU Time, MSE, SD and accuracy

Multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm for multi-step electric load forecasting

As energy saving becomes more and more popular, electric load forecasting has played a more and more crucial role in power management systems in the last few years. Because of the real-time characteristic of electricity and the uncertainty change of an electric load, realizing the accuracy and stability of electric load forecasting is a challenging task. Many predecessors have obtained the expected forecasting results by various methods. Considering the stability of time series prediction, a novel combined electric load forecasting, which based on extreme learning machine (ELM), recurrent neural network (RNN), and support vector machines (SVMs), was proposed. The combined model first uses three neural networks to forecast the electric load data separately considering that the single model has inevitable disadvantages, the combined model applies the multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm (MOPSO) to optimize the parameters. In order to verify the capacity of the proposed combined model, 1-step, 2-step, and 3-step are used to forecast the electric load data of three Australian states, including New South Wales, Queensland, and Victoria. The experimental results intuitively indicate that for these three datasets, the combined model outperforms all three individual models used for comparison, which demonstrates its superior capability in terms of accuracy and stability

An improved optimization technique for estimation of solar photovoltaic parameters

The nonlinear current vs voltage (I-V) characteristics of solar PV make its modelling difficult. Optimization techniques are the best tool for identifying the parameters of nonlinear models. Even though, there are different optimization techniques used for parameter estimation of solar PV, still the best optimized results are not achieved to date. In this paper, Wind Driven Optimization (WDO) technique is proposed as the new method for identifying the parameters of solar PV. The accuracy and convergence time of the proposed method is compared with results of Pattern Search (PS), Genetic Algorithm (GA), and Simulated Annealing (SA) for single diode and double diode models of solar PV. Furthermore, for performance validation, the parameters obtained through WDO are compared with hybrid Bee Pollinator Flower Pollination Algorithm (BPFPA), Flower Pollination Algorithm (FPA), Generalized Oppositional Teaching Learning Based Optimization (GOTLBO), Artificial Bee Swarm Optimization (ABSO), and Harmony Search (HS). The obtained results clearly reveal that WDO algorithm can provide accurate optimized values with less number of iterations at different environmental conditions. Therefore, the WDO can be recommended as the best optimization algorithm for parameter estimation of solar PV

Swarm Intelligence

Swarm Intelligence has emerged as one of the most studied artificial intelligence branches during the last decade, constituting the fastest growing stream in the bio-inspired computation community. A clear trend can be deduced analyzing some of the most renowned scientific databases available, showing that the interest aroused by this branch has increased at a notable pace in the last years. This book describes the prominent theories and recent developments of Swarm Intelligence methods, and their application in all fields covered by engineering. This book unleashes a great opportunity for researchers, lecturers, and practitioners interested in Swarm Intelligence, optimization problems, and artificial intelligence