On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities

A model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolution of the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non-renewable resources, their consumption, depletion pathways and timescales. Such marginal costs can be used to simulate the long term average price formation of energy commodities. Drawing on previous work where a global database of energy resource economic potentials was constructed, this work uses cost distributions of non-renewable resources in order to evaluate global flows of energy commodities. A mathematical framework is given to calculate endogenous flows of energy resources given an exogenous commodity price path. This framework can be used in reverse in order to calculate an exogenous marginal cost of production of energy carriers given an exogenous carrier demand. Using rigid price inelastic assumptions independent of the economy, these two approaches generate limiting scenarios that depict extreme use of natural resources. This is useful to characterise the current state and possible uses of remaining non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels and natural uranium. The theory is however designed for use within economic or technology models that allow technology substitutions. In this work, it is implemented in the global power sector model FTT:Power. Policy implications are given.Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures, 8 pages of supplementary informatio

Use of alternative energy sources to improve the efficiency of natural gas hydrate technology for gas offshore deposits transportation

Purpose. Justification of the principal schemes acceptable for the existing level of technology, methods of extraction and transportation of offshore natural gas deposits. Increase in their efficiency by maximum reduction of energy consumption resulting from complex considerations of thermal and physical properties and parameters of the system components interaction. The work is focused on the improvement of borehole products preparation system according to the gas hydrate technology during the development of offshore gas fields. The research objects were thermodynamic parameters of the system “gas – water – gas hydrate” in a vertical pipeline under nonadiabatic conditions. Methods. Analysis and generalization of the results obtained from the complex experimental research. Mathematical modeling and software development. Findings. The technology of gas transfer into a gas hydrate form without energy consumption for phase transition was proposed. The expediency of gas deposits development by its binding into the gas hydrate form during passage through the sea layer in the appropriate thermobaric conditions was substantiated. Mechanism of the alternative energy sources use for the production of gas hydrates, as the most energy-consuming process in technology of transporting gases in the form of gas hydrates, was grounded. Originality. The principle possibility of binding the extracted gas into the gas hydrate form due to the energy of the productive layer and salt water was estimated. A mathematical model and software product for the description of the hydrate formation process in the presence of excess water in a vertical pipe under non-adiabatic conditions were developed. Practical implications. The proposed gas hydrate technology creates important prerequisites for the development of small and medium remote gas deposits, improves the efficiency and competitiveness of technology for marine transportation of natural gas in hydrate form.Мета. Підвищення ефективності технології транспорту газу морських родовищ шляхом максимального зниження енерговитрат на основі дослідження термодинамічних параметрів системи “газ – вода – газовий гідрат” у вертикальному трубопроводі за неадіабатних умов. Методика. В роботі використано комплексний науково-методичний підхід, що включає аналіз літературних та інформаційних джерел, що стосуються енерговитрат при газогідратних технологіях, основні положення термодинаміки, аналітичні та експериментальні дослідження. Експериментальні дослідження проведені на ділянці вертикального трубопроводу, що моделює з’єднання морської газової свердловини із видобувною платформою, в якому рухається видобутий зі свердловини газ. Ділянка трубопровода розглядалась як реактор гідратоутворення, де досліджувались термобаричні умови формування гідрату. Для встановлення формули газогідрату використано метод Форкрана. Для чисельного розв’язання процесу утворення газових гідратів застосовано метод кінцевих різниць, а розрахунок процесу гідратоутворення виконано у середовищі Matlab. Результати. Запропоновано технологію переведення газу у газогідратну форму без витрати енергії на фазовий перехід. Доведено доцільність розробки газових родовищ шляхом зв’язування газу в газогідрат за рахунок наявності необхідних термобаричних умов при його проходженні крізь морську товщу. Обґрунтовано передумови і механізм використання альтернативних джерел низькопотенційної енергії для виробництва газогідрату як найбільш енерговитратного процесу технології транспортування газів у газогідратній формі. Наукова новизна. Надана наукова оцінка принципової можливості зв’язування видобутого газу у газогідратну форму за рахунок енергії продуктивного пласта і низькопотенційної енергії морської води. Розроблено нову математичну модель та алгоритм у програмному продукті для опису процесу гідратоутворення при надлишку води за неадіабатних умов у вертикальній трубі, що омивається водою. Практична значимість. Запропонована газогідратна технологія створює важливі передумови розробки малих та середніх віддалених родовищ газу, підвищення ефективності й конкурентоздатності технології морського транспортування природного газу у газогідратній формі.Цель. Повышение эффективности технологии транспорта газа морских месторождений путем максимального снижения энергозатрат на основе исследования термодинамических параметров системы “газ – вода – газовый гидрат” в вертикальном трубопроводе при неадиабатных условиях. Методика. В работе использован комплексный научно-методический подход, включающий анализ литературных и информационных источников, касающихся энергозатрат при газогидратных технологиях, основные положения термодинамики, аналитические и экспериментальные исследования. Экспериментальные исследования проведены на участке вертикального трубопровода, моделирующего соединение морской газовой скважины с добывающей платформой, в котором движется добытый из скважины газ. Участок трубопровода рассматривался как реактор гидратообразования, где исследовались термобарические условия процесса формирования гидрата. Для получения формулы газогидратов использован метод Форкрана. Для численного решения процесса образования газовых гидратов применен метод конечных элементов, а расчет процесса гидратообразования выполнен в среде Matlab. Результаты. Предложена технология перевода газа в газогидратную форму без затрат энергии на фазовый переход. Доказана целесообразность разработки газовых месторождений путем связывания газа в газогидрат за счет наличия необходимых термобарических условий при его прохождении через морскую толщу. Обоснованно предпосылки и механизм использования альтернативных источников низкопотенциальной энергии для производства газогидратов как наиболее энергозатратного процесса технологии транспортировки газов в газогидратной форме. Научная новизна. Дана научная оценка принципиальной возможности связывания добытого газа в газогидратную форму за счет энергии продуктивного пласта и низкопотенциальной энергии морской воды. Разработана новая математическая модель и алгоритм в программном продукте для описания процесса гидратообразования при избытке воды в неадиабатных условиях в вертикальной трубе, омываемой водой. Практическая значимость. Предложенная газогидратная технология создает важные предпосылки разработки малых и средне удаленных месторождений газа, повышение эффективности и конкурентоспособности технологии морской транспортировки природного газа в газогидратной форме.This work has become possible due to financial and organizational support within the frames of the state budget research project under the auspices of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine “Application of gas hydrate technology in the development of traditionaland gas hydrate gas deposits” No.0113U00857, “Research of influence of thermodynamic parameters of phase transitions in systems with gas hydrates on the efficiency of gas hydrate technology” No.0115U002420

World crude oil resources : evidence from estimating supply functions for 41 countries

Evidence to support or deny expectations of future scarcity or abundance of crude oil must show whether crude oil supply functions are shifting and, if so, in what direction. The authors estimate oil supply functions for 41 countries for which suitable data are available. Because of the poor quality of data, especially for reserves, the model specification is simple. Their model relates reserve additions to the imputed"in situ"price of discovered but undeveloped reserves and to the passage of time. The passage of time is a surrogate for measuring the net impact on supply conditions of the chance of finding oil, resource depletion, cost efficiency, and technology. Time's impact could be expansionary or contractionary. They test two main versions of the model, one a straightforward linear function, the other nonlinear, assuming decreasing returns. Both models yield similar results. In most cases the models fit the data reasonably closely, after adjustment for outliers. The complete model results show 26 countries with statistically significant shifts in supply functions -in almost equal parts expansionary and contractionary. The shift is often contractionary in countries with a long production history (including Burma, Trinidad and Tobago, and the United States). Some are OPEC countries, to which a model specification involving market price response does not properly apply. Tests on a small sample of countries for differences between earlier and later periods reveal limited evidence of an expansionary shift from 1980 onward. There is partial evidence that lower oil prices stimulate productivity. The authors suggest that a gloomy outlook for non-OPEC supply is unwarranted. Several countries are still in an expansionary phase. Others show no evidence of entering a period of decline. And countries in a contractionary phase will continue to add to reserves. Further research requires improving the database rather than employing more elaborate models.Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Markets and Market Access,Health Economics&Finance,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Access to Markets,Markets and Market Access,Oil Refining&Gas Industry

Value and depreciation of mineral resources over the very long run: An empirical contrast of different methods

The paper contrasts empirically the results of alternative methods for estimating the value and the depreciation of mineral resources. The historical data of Mexico and Venezuela, covering the period 1920s-1980s, is used to contrast the results of several methods. These are the present value, the net price method, the user cost method and the imputed income method. The paper establishes that the net price and the user cost are not competing methods as such, but alternative adjustments to different scenarios of closed and open economies. The results prove that the biases of the methods, as commonly described in the theoretical literature, only hold under the most restricted scenario of constant rents over time. It is argued that the difference between what is expected to happen and what actually did happen is for the most part due to a missing variable, namely technological change. This is an important caveat to the recommendations made based on these models.Value, depreciation, mineral assets, net price, user costs, imputed income, environmental accounts

Estimating the Value of Oil Capital in a Small Open Economy: the Venezuela’s Example

The paper focuses in the calculation of the oil capital value in a small open economy depending on oil rents. The Venezuelan case is used as an example. In valuing the oil capital, two issues are recalled and discussed: how should the exploration costs and the capital gains be treated? It is shown that the estimations vary significantly depending on which set of assumptions are made about the way to account for them and the assumptions made about how the economy functions. It is argued that during the studied period the value of the Venezuelan stock of oil capital has increased, and it has done so faster than the population.Venezuela, Oil Capital, Capital Gains, Exploration Costs, Property Rights

Exchange rate policies, patterns of specialization and economic development : theory and evidence in developing countries

The objectives of this paper are twofold. First, it intends to provide theoretical elements toanalyze the relation between real exchange rates and economic development. Our mainhypothesis is very much in line with the Dutch disease literature, and states that competitivecurrencies contribute to the existence and maintenance of the manufacturing sector in theeconomy. This, in turn, brings about higher growth rates in the long run, given the existenceof increasing returns in the industrial sector, and its importance in generating technologicalchange and increasing productivity in the overall economy. The second objective of this paperis empirical. It intends to analyze examples of successful exchange rate policies, such as Chileand Indonesia in the eighties, as a benchmark for comparison with countries where currencyovervaluation has taken place, such as Brazil. In the latter case, the local currency is beinginflated by large capital inflows, due to high domestic interest rates and to a boom in demandand prices of commodities in the international markets. It will be argued that the industrialsector bears most of the burden when the currency appreciates, and that Brazil risks at deindustrializationif there are no changes in the exchange rate regime

Formalization of the General Model of the Green Economy at the Regional Level

The paper focuses on the study of the problems of the economic and mathematical modeling of the green economy at the regional level. The purpose of the research is the development of economic and mathematical tools for the economic and ecological systems’ modeling at the regional level on the basis of the principles of green economy. The hypothesis of the research is based on the thesis that in the conditions of the exhaustion of natural resources and depletion of natural capital, the technogenic fields, production and consumption waste could be considered as a resource basis for modernization. Such factors’ use leads to the elimination of accumulated environmental damage and substitution of natural resources. The paper describes the approaches to the system modeling problem-solving in order to develop the green economy both in the country and its regions. The urgency of the transition to a green economy is confirmed by the theoretical and practical research on the cyclical development of the socio-eco-economic systems. A number of formalized models and methods for solving the current environmental and economic issues including the economic valuation of accumulated environmental damage, eco-economic assessment of the efficiency of natural resource substitution with resource-substitute are proposed as well as the choice of an optimal set of resources-substitutes taking into account the financial and natural resource constraints. The authors research the typical model of green growth considering the exhaustion of natural resources, technogenic resources deposits involving in economic circulation through the implementation of investment projects on the elimination of accumulated environmental damage. The results could be used in the different regions of Russia for the justification and implementation of investment projects within the framework of the federal target program “Elimination of accumulated environmental damage” in 2015–2026 years.The research has been supported by the Grant of the Russian Foundation for Humanities, Project №14–02–00235а

Selection of accessing and development schemes for extracting reserves of ore body 2 in Irtysh deposit

Purpose. Justification and selection of a rational scheme for accessing the second ore body of the Irtysh deposit based on a technical and economic comparison of its adopted competitive options. Methods. The main mining, geological and engineering requirements for selecting the scheme for accessing the Irtysh field are considered to achieve the goal. Three competitive accessing options are proposed on the basis of project regulatory documents and geotechnological features of the ore body. The optimal scheme of accessing was suggested taking into account the volumes of mining and preparatory works and averaging of the metal content in the ore by the method of technical and economic comparison. Findings. Analysis of the accessing schemes was performed for deposits similar in the geological conditions and represented by fragmented ore bodies. The advantages and disadvantages of 3 competitive access options are reviewed in detail. The technological and economic feasibility of excavation of ore body 2 reserves has been substantiated, i.e. of accessing them by fringedrifts between the Irtysh and Vspomogatel’naya mines on the upper horizons of the deposit. It is established that the difference in the volume of capital works (CW) and preparatory works (PW) is 45640 m3 in favor of accessing ore body 2 by fringedrifts between the Irtysh and Vspomogatel’naya mines. At the same time, the volumes of CW and PW at the initial and final stages of development are much lower than in the case of accessing by a transport ramp from the surface. The change in the average content of copper, lead and zinc with the simultaneous development of the Osnovnaya Deposit and the South-Eastern Deposit in the lower horizons of the field has been calculated. Originality. For the conditions of ore body 2 of the Irtysh deposit, planned for development in accordance with the proposed access, it was found that despite the decrease in the copper content in the saleable ore, the lead content in the saleable ore will increase to 0.49% and zinc content, respectively, to 3.83%. Practical implications. Mining of ore body 2 according to the recommended accessing scheme with a minimum amount of mining will allow to raise the productivity of the Irtysh mine to 600 thousand tons per year during the period 2018 – 2026, as well as to increase the extraction of lead and zinc.Мета. Обґрунтування та вибір раціональної схеми розкриття другого рудного тіла Іртишського родовища на підставі техніко-економічного порівняння її прийнятих конкурентних варіантів. Методика. Для досягнення поставленої мети виділено основні гірничо-геологічні та інженерно-технічні вимоги для вибору схеми розкриття Іртишського родовища. На підставі положень проектних нормативних документів і геотехнологічних особливостей рудного тіла запропоновані 3 конкурентних варіанти розкриття. Методом техніко-економічного порівняння приймалася оптимальна схема розкриття з урахуванням об’ємів гірничо-капітальних і підготовчих робіт та усереднення вмісту металу в руді. Результати. Виконано аналіз схем розкриття, аналогічних за гірничо-геологічними умовами родовищ, представлених зближеними рудними покладами. Детально розглянуті переваги й недоліки 3 конкурентних варіантів розкриття. Обґрунтована технологічна та економічна доцільність виїмки запасів рудного тіла 2, а саме розкриття польовими штреками між шахтами “Іртишська” і “Допоміжна” на верхніх горизонтах родовища. Встановлено, що різниця в об’ємах гірничо-капітальних (ГКР) і підготовчих робіт (ГПР) становить 45640 м3 на користь варіанту розкриття рудного тіла 2 польовими штреками між шахтами “Іртишська” і “Допоміжна”, при цьому об’єми ГКР і ГПР на початковій і кінцевій стадіях відпрацювання значно нижче, ніж при варіанті розкриття транспортним ухилом з поверхні. Підрахована зміна середнього вмісту міді, свинцю і цинку з одночасним відпрацюванням Основного та Південно-Східного покладів на нижніх горизонтах родовища. Наукова новизна. Для умов рудного тіла 2 Іртишського родовища, яке планується розробляти, відповідно до запропонованого варіанту розкриття, встановлено, що, незважаючи на зниження вмісту міді у товарній руді, в цілому по руднику підвищиться вміст свинцю в товарній руді до 0.49%, а цинку – до 3.83% відповідно. Практична значимість. Введення у відпрацювання рудного тіла 2, відповідно до рекомендованої схеми розкриття з мінімальним об’ємом гірничих робіт, дозволить досягти продуктивності Іртишського рудника до 600 тис. т на рік у період 2018 – 2026 рр., а також додатково підвищити витяг свинцю і цинку.Цель. Обоснование и выбор рациональной схемы вскрытия второго рудного тела Иртышского месторождения на основании технико-экономического сравнения ее принятых конкурентных вариантов. Методика. Для достижения поставленной цели выделены основные горно-геологические и инженерно-технические требования для выбора схемы вскрытия Иртышского месторождения. На основании положений проектных нормативных документов и геотехнологических особенностей рудного тела предложены 3 конкурентных варианта вскрытия. Методом технико-экономического сравнения принималась оптимальная схема вскрытия с учетом объемов горно-капитальных и подготовительных работ и усреднения содержания металла в руде. Результаты. Выполнен анализ схем вскрытия, аналогичных по горно-геологическим условиям месторождений, представленных сближенными рудными залежами. Детально рассмотрены достоинства и недостатки 3 конкурентных вариантов вскрытия. Обоснована технологическая и экономическая целесообразность выемки запасов рудного тела 2, а именно вскрытие полевыми штреками между шахтами “Иртышская” и “Вспомогательная” на верхних горизонтах месторождения. Установлено, что разница в объемах горно-капитальных (ГКР) и подготовительных работ (ГПР) составляет 45640 м3 в пользу варианта вскрытия рудного тела 2 полевыми штреками между шахтами “Иртышская” и “Вспомогательная”, при этом объемы ГКР и ГПР на начальной и конечной стадиях отработки значительно ниже, чем при варианте вскрытия транспортным уклоном с поверхности. Подсчитано изменение среднего содержания меди, свинца и цинка с одновременной отработкой Основной и Юго-Восточной залежей на нижних горизонтах месторождения. Научная новизна. Для условий рудного тела 2 Иртышского месторождения, планируемого к разработке, согласно предложенному варианту вскрытия, установлено, что, несмотря на снижение содержание меди в товарной руде, в целом по руднику повысится содержание свинца в товарной руде до 0.49%, а цинка – до 3.83% соответственно. Практическая значимость. Ввод в отработку рудного тела 2, согласно рекомендованной схеме вскрытия с минимальным объемом горных работ, позволит достичь производительности Иртышского рудника до 600 тыс. т в год в период 2018 – 2026 гг., а также дополнительно повысить извлечение свинца и цинка.The paper did not originate under any project and no funding was raised

Capital Based Macroeconomic model and 100 percent reserve system, free banking system and BFH system: A Comparism among Latvia, Lithuania, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.

This essay extends the capital based macroeconomic theory to include international capital flow thus extending it to an open economy and analyze it in the context of the BFH system, Free banking system and 100 percent reserve ration. In all these, it was noticed that interest rate will barely change even though the possibility of interest rate changes was not ruled out completely. A test of these systems was conducted on Latvia, Lithuanian, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan and was successful. However, it must be noted that these are just prepositions as these system are not in place at the moment. In furtherance to this, past and present monetary system used by the countries exhibited similarities to these systems, even though difference could largely be seen

Efficiency Evaluation Of Implementation Of Optimization Methods Of Operation Modes Of The "Plast - Gas Pipeline" System By The Methods Of Mathematical Modeling

To date, Ukraine's mature gas fields, which are being developed in the gas regime, are at the final stage of development, which is characterized by a significant depletion of reservoir energy. The final stage of development requires solving complex problems related to watering wells, destruction of the reservoir, removal of formation water and mechanical impurities, increasing back pressure in the system, as well as the moral and physical wear and tear of industrial equipment. In the conditions of falling gas production, a significant part of the operating well stock is unstable, in the mode of unauthorized stops due to the accumulation of liquid at the bottom and insufficient gas velocities for removal to the surface, and also the accumulation of the liquid phase in the lowered places of the gas gathering system.Within the framework of the conducted studies, the gas dynamic models of the operation of the gas collection system of 3 oil/gas-condensate fields (OGCF) are created. A single model of the gas production system "reservoir - well - gas gathering system - inter-field gas pipeline - main facilities" is built. The current efficiency of the gas production, collection and transportation system is assessed. On the basis of model calculations, the current production capabilities of the wells are defined, as well as the "narrow" places of the system.It is established that the introduction of modern technologies for the operation of watered wells without optimizing the operation of the entire gas production system is irrational, since the liquid that is carried out from the wellbore will accumulate in the plumes and increase the back pressure level in the ground part. In conditions of increasing gas sampling, liquid flowlines can be taken out of the loops and deactivated the separation equipment.The feasibility of introducing methods for optimizing the operation modes of the gas production - gathering and transportation system is estimated, which allows choosing the optimal method for increasing the efficiency and reliability of its operation.For the first time in the Ukrainian gas industry, an integrated model of the field is created as a single chain of extraction, collection, preparation and transportation of natural gas, which can be adapted for the development and arrangement of both new and mature deposits.The main advantage of the application for the hydrocarbon production sector is the simulation of the processes, which makes it possible to evaluate the operating mode of the well in the safe zone while reducing the working pressure and introducing various intensification methods, and also to estimate the increase in hydrocarbon production. For the equipment of the ground infrastructure – "midstream" – the main advantage is a reduction in the time required to perform design calculations for gas pipelines, trains and pipelines for transporting multiphase media using public models.The creation and use of integrated models of gas fields gives an understanding of the integral picture of available resources and ensures an increase in the efficiency of field development management.The results of the calculation are clearly correlated with the actual data, which makes it possible to use the models constructed to obtain numerical results