Binary and Multivariate Stochastic Models of Consensus Formation

A current paradigm in computer simulation studies of social sciences problems by physicists is the emergence of consensus. The question is to establish when the dynamics of a set of interacting agents that can choose among several options (political vote, opinion, cultural features, etc.) leads to a consensus in one of these options, or when a state with several coexisting social options prevail. We consider here stochastic dynamic models naturally studied by computer simulations. We will first review some basic results for the voter model. This is a binary option stochastic model, and probably the simplest model of collective behavior. Next we consider a model proposed by Axelrod for the dissemination of culture. This model can be considered as a multivariable elaboration of the voter model dynamics.Comment: (16 pages, 8 figures; for simililar work visit http://www.imedea.uib.es/physdept

Deriving mesoscopic models of collective behaviour for finite populations

Animal groups exhibit emergent properties that are a consequence of local interactions. Linking individual-level behaviour to coarse-grained descriptions of animal groups has been a question of fundamental interest. Here, we present two complementary approaches to deriving coarse-grained descriptions of collective behaviour at so-called mesoscopic scales, which account for the stochasticity arising from the finite sizes of animal groups. We construct stochastic differential equations (SDEs) for a coarse-grained variable that describes the order/consensus within a group. The first method of construction is based on van Kampen's system-size expansion of transition rates. The second method employs Gillespie's chemical Langevin equations. We apply these two methods to two microscopic models from the literature, in which organisms stochastically interact and choose between two directions/choices of foraging. These `binary-choice' models differ only in the types of interactions between individuals, with one assuming simple pair-wise interactions, and the other incorporating higher-order effects. In both cases, the derived mesoscopic SDEs have multiplicative, or state-dependent, noise. However, the different models demonstrate the contrasting effects of noise: increasing order in the pair-wise interaction model, whilst reducing order in the higher-order interaction model. Although both methods yield identical SDEs for such binary-choice, or one-dimensional, systems, the relative tractability of the chemical Langevin approach is beneficial in generalizations to higher-dimensions. In summary, this book chapter provides a pedagogical review of two complementary methods to construct mesoscopic descriptions from microscopic rules and demonstrates how resultant multiplicative noise can have counter-intuitive effects on shaping collective behaviour.Comment: Second version, 4 figures, 2 appendice

Learning and Forecasting Opinion Dynamics in Social Networks

Social media and social networking sites have become a global pinboard for exposition and discussion of news, topics, and ideas, where social media users often update their opinions about a particular topic by learning from the opinions shared by their friends. In this context, can we learn a data-driven model of opinion dynamics that is able to accurately forecast opinions from users? In this paper, we introduce SLANT, a probabilistic modeling framework of opinion dynamics, which represents users opinions over time by means of marked jump diffusion stochastic differential equations, and allows for efficient model simulation and parameter estimation from historical fine grained event data. We then leverage our framework to derive a set of efficient predictive formulas for opinion forecasting and identify conditions under which opinions converge to a steady state. Experiments on data gathered from Twitter show that our model provides a good fit to the data and our formulas achieve more accurate forecasting than alternatives

Modeling of the parties' vote share distributions

Competition between varying ideas, people and institutions fuels the dynamics of socio-economic systems. Numerous analyses of the empirical data extracted from different financial markets have established a consistent set of stylized facts describing statistical signatures of the competition in the financial markets. Having an established and consistent set of stylized facts helps to set clear goals for theoretical models to achieve. Despite similar abundance of empirical analyses in sociophysics, there is no consistent set of stylized facts describing the opinion dynamics. In this contribution we consider the parties' vote share distributions observed during the Lithuanian parliamentary elections. We show that most of the time empirical vote share distributions could be well fitted by numerous different distributions. While discussing this peculiarity we provide arguments, including a simple agent-based model, on why the beta distribution could be the best choice to fit the parties' vote share distributions.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figure

Large population and long-term behavior of a stochastic binary opinion model

We propose and study a stochastic binary opinion model where agents in a group are considered to hold an opinion of 0 or 1 at each moment. An agent in the group updates his/her opinion based on the group's opinion configuration and his/her \emph{personality}. Considering the number of agents with opinion 1 as a continuous time Markov process, we analyze the long-term probabilities for large population size in relation to the personalities of the group. In particular, we focus on the question of "balance" where both opinions are present in nearly equal numbers as opposed to "dominance" where one opinion is dominant