Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand

A technique is proposed for estimating the probability distribution of total network travel time, in the light of normal day-to-day variations in the travel demand matrix over a road traffic network. A solution method is proposed, based on a single run of a standard traffic assignment model, which operates in two stages. In stage one, moments of the total travel time distribution are computed by an analytic method, based on the multivariate moments of the link flow vector. In stage two, a flexible family of density functions is fitted to these moments. It is discussed how the resulting distribution may in practice be used to characterise unreliability. Illustrative numerical tests are reported on a simple network, where the method is seen to provide a means for identifying sensitive or vulnerable links, and for examining the impact on network reliability of changes to link capacities. Computational considerations for large networks, and directions for further research, are discussed

Performance Measures to Assess Resiliency and Efficiency of Transit Systems

Transit agencies are interested in assessing the short-, mid-, and long-term performance of infrastructure with the objective of enhancing resiliency and efficiency. This report addresses three distinct aspects of New Jersey’s Transit System: 1) resiliency of bridge infrastructure, 2) resiliency of public transit systems, and 3) efficiency of transit systems with an emphasis on paratransit service. This project proposed a conceptual framework to assess the performance and resiliency for bridge structures in a transit network before and after disasters utilizing structural health monitoring (SHM), finite element (FE) modeling and remote sensing using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR). The public transit systems in NY/NJ were analyzed based on their vulnerability, resiliency, and efficiency in recovery following a major natural disaster

AN INTEGRATED SCORE-BASED TRAFFIC LAW ENFORCEMENT AND NETWORK MANAGEMENT IN CONNECTED VEHICLE ENVIRONMENT

The increasing number of traffic accidents and the associated traffic congestion have prompted the development of innovative technologies to curb such problems. This dissertation introduces a novel Score-Based Traffic Law Enforcement and Network Management System (SLEM), which leverages connected vehicle (CV) and telematics technologies. SLEM assigns a score to each driver which reflects her/his driving performance and compliance with traffic laws over a predefined period of time. The proposed system adopts a rewarding mechanism that rewards high-performance drivers and penalizes low-performance drivers who fail to obey traffic laws. The reward mechanism is in the form of a route guidance strategy that restricts low-score drivers from accessing certain roadway sections and time periods that are strategically selected in order to shift the network traffic distribution pattern from the undesirable user equilibrium (UE) pattern to the system optimal (SO) pattern. Hence, it not only incentivizes drivers to improve their driving performance, but it also provides a mechanism to manage network congestion in which high-score drivers experience less congestion and a higher level of safety at the expense of low-performing drivers. This dissertation is divided into twofold. iv First, a nationwide survey study was conducted to measure public acceptance of the SLEM system. Another survey targeted a focused group of traffic operation and safety professionals. Based on the results of these surveys, a set of logistic regression models was developed to examine the sensitivity of public acceptance to policy and behavioral variables. The results showed that about 65 percent of the public and about 60.0 percent of professionals who participated in this study support the real-world implementation of SLEM. Second, we present a modeling framework for the optimal design of SLEM’s routing strategy, which is described in the form of a score threshold for each route. Under SLEM’s routing strategy, drivers are allowed to use a particular route only if their driving scores satisfy the score threshold assigned to that route. The problem is formulated as a bi-level mathematical program in which the upper-level problem minimizes total network travel time, while the lower-level problem captures drivers’ route choice behavior under SLEM. An efficient solution methodology developed for the problem is presented. The solution methodology adopts a heuristic-based approach that determines the score thresholds that minimize the difference between the traffic distribution pattern under SLEM’s routing strategy and the SO pattern. The framework was applied to the network of the US-75 Corridor in Dallas, Texas, and a set of simulation-based experiments was conducted to evaluate the network performance given different driver populations, score class aggregation levels, recurrent and non-recurrent congestion scenarios, and driver compliance rates

Accident Analysis and Prevention: Course Notes 1987/88

This report consists of the notes from a series of lectures given by the authors for a course entitled Accident Analysis and Prevention. The course took place during the second term of a one year Masters degree course in Transport Planning and Engineering run by the Institute for Transport Studies and the Department of Civil Engineering at the University of Leeds. The course consisted of 18 lectures of which 16 are reported on in this document (the remaining two, on Human Factors, are not reported on in this document as no notes were provided). Each lecture represents one chapter of this document, except in two instances where two lectures are covered in one chapter (Chapters 10 and 14). The course first took place in 1988, and at the date of publication has been run for a second time. This report contains the notes for the initial version of the course. A number of changes were made in the content and emphasis of the course during its second run, mainly due to a change of personnel, with different ideas and experiences in the field of accident analysis and prevention. It is likely that each time the course is run, there will be significant changes, but that the notes provided in this document can be considered to contain a number of the core elements of any future version of the course

Instruments of Transport Policy.

The material in this Working Paper was generated as input to DETR's Guidance on the Methodology for Multi Modal Studies (GOMMMS). DETR subsequently decided only to provide summary information on transport policy measures, and to leave the consultants involved in individual multi modal studies to make their own assessment of individual policy measures in the context of specific study areas. It has been decided to make this fuller document available as a reference source. The purpose of the review of policy measures was to provide summary information on the range of policy measures available, experience of their use and, based on past studies, their potential contribution to the range of policy objectives specified for GOMMMS. The review was based on an earlier one included in the Institution of Highways and Transportation's Guidelines on Developing Urban Transport Strategies (1996). This material was updated using references published since 1996 and expanded to cover policy measures relevant in inter-urban areas. It had been intended to circulate it for comment before publishing a revised version. However, DETR decided to use an abridged version before this consultation was complete. It should be borne in mind that this document has not, therefore, undergone the peer assessment which had been intended. To avoid unnecessary further work, the material is presented as it had been drafted for the GOMMMS Guidance document. The only modifications have been to change the chapter and paragraph numbers, and to remove the cross references to other parts of the Guidance document

QUANTIFYING THE IMPACT OF TRANSPORTATION NETWORK COMPANIES (TNCs) ON TRAFFIC CONGESTION IN SAN FRANCISCO

This research investigates whether Transportation Network Companies (TNCs), such as Uber and Lyft, live up to their stated vision of reducing congestion by complementing transit and reducing car ownership in major cities. The objective of this research study is to answer the question: are TNCs are correlated to traffic congestion in the city of San Francisco? If found to be so, do they increase or decrease traffic congestion for the case of San Francisco? If and how TNC pickups and drop-offs impact traffic congestion within San Francisco? And finally, how does the magnitude of this measured command of TNCs on congestion compare to that caused by pre-existing conventional drivers of traffic and congestion change? Apart from answering these questions, it is also sought to establish a framework to be able to include TNCs, a seemingly fledgling mode of transportation but one that is demonstrably shaping and modifying extant transportation and mode choice trends, as part of the travel demand models estimated by any geographic jurisdiction. Traffic congestion has worsened noticeably in San Francisco and other major cities over the past few years. Part of this change could reasonably be explained by strong economic growth or other standard factors such as road and transit network changes. The sharp increase in travel times and congestion also corresponds to the emergence of TNCs, raising the question of whether the two trends may be related. Existing research has produced conflicting results and been hampered by a lack of data. Using data scraped from the Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) of two TNCs, combined with observed travel time data, this research finds that contrary to their vision, TNCs are the biggest contributor to growing traffic congestion in San Francisco. Between 2010 and 2016, weekday vehicle hours of delay increased by 62%, compared to 22% in a counterfactual 2016 scenario without TNCs. The findings provide insight into expected changes in major cities as TNCs continue to grow, informing decisions about how to integrate TNCs into the existing transportation system. This research also decomposes the contributors to increased congestion in San Francisco between 2010 and 2016, considering contributions from five incremental effects: road and transit network changes, population growth, employment growth, TNC volumes, and the effect of TNC pick-ups and Drop-offs. It is so done through a series of controlled travel demand model runs, supplemented with observed TNC data. The results show that road and transit network changes over this period have only a small effect on congestion, population and employment growth are important contributors, and that TNCs are the biggest contributor to growing congestion over this period, contributing about half of the increase in vehicle hours of delay, and adding to worsening travel time reliability. This research contradicts several studies that suggest TNCs may reduce congestion and adds evidence in support of a recent empirical analysis showing that their net effect is to increase congestion. This research gives transportation planners a better understanding of the causes of growing congestion, allowing them to more effectively craft strategies to mitigate or adapt to it

Safety Analysis Considering the Impactof Travel Time Reliability on Elderly Drivers

The main goal of this research was to evaluate how travel time reliability (TTR) might be associated with crashes involving elderly drivers, defined as those age 65 and above. Several TTR metrics were used to estimate their influence on elderly crash frequency and severity of the crash on freeways and arterial highways. The results suggest that TTR is statistically significant in affecting both elderly crash frequency and the severity of a crash involving an elderly driver. In particular, the analysis of risk ratios illustrates that a one-unit increase in the probability of congestion reduces the likelihood of the elderly severe crash by 22%

Optimization of vehicle routing and scheduling with travel time variability - application in winter road maintenance

This study developed a mathematical model for optimizing vehicle routing and scheduling, which can be used to collect travel time information, and also to perform winter road maintenance operations (e.g., salting, plowing). The objective of this research was to minimize the total vehicle travel time to complete a given set of service tasks, subject to resource constraints (e.g., truck capacity, fleet size) and operational constraints (e.g., service time windows, service time limit). The nature of the problem is to design vehicle routes and schedules to perform the required service on predetermined road segments, which can be interpreted as an arc routing problem (ARP). By using a network transformation technique, an ARP can be transformed into a well-studied node routing problem (NRP). A set-partitioning (SP) approach was introduced to formulate the problem into an integer programming problem (I PP). To solve this problem, firstly, a number of feasible routes were generated, subject to resources and operational constraints. A genetic algorithm based heuristic was developed to improve the efficiency of generating feasible routes. Secondly, the corresponding travel time of each route was computed. Finally, the feasible routes were entered into the linear programming solver (CPL EX) to obtain final optimized results. The impact of travel time variability on vehicle routing and scheduling for transportation planning was also considered in this study. Usually in the concern of vehicle and pedestrian\u27s safety, federal, state governments and local agencies are more leaning towards using a conservative approach with constant travel time for the planning of winter roadway maintenance than an aggressive approach, which means that they would rather have a redundancy of plow trucks than a shortage. The proposed model and solution algorithm were validated with an empirical case study of 41 snow sections in the northwest area of New Jersey. Comprehensive analysis based on a deterministic travel time setting and a time-dependent travel time setting were both performed. The results show that a model that includes time dependent travel time produces better results than travel time being underestimated and being overestimated in transportation planning. In addition, a scenario-based analysis suggests that the current NJDOT operation based on given snow sector design, service routes and fleet size can be improved by the proposed model that considers time dependent travel time and the geometry of the road network to optimize vehicle routing and scheduling. In general, the benefit of better routing and scheduling design for snow plowing could be reflected in smaller minimum required fleet size and shorter total vehicle travel time. The depot location and number of service routes also have an impact on the final optimized results. This suggests that managers should consider the depot location, vehicle fleet sizing and the routing design problem simultaneously at the planning stage to minimize the total cost for snow plowing operations