On risk management of shipping system in ice-covered waters : Review, analysis and toolbox based on an eight-year polar project

Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The AuthorsWith the climate change, polar sea ice is diminishing. This, on one hand, enables the possibility for e.g., Arctic shipping and relevant resource exploitation activities, but on the other hand brings additional risks induced by these activities. Increasing research focuses have been observed on the relevant topics in the complex and harsh polar environment and its fragile ecosystem. However, from risk management perspective, there is still a lack of holistic analysis and understanding towards safe shipping in the ice-covered waters and its available models applicable for managing risks in the system. Therefore, this paper aims to establish a framework and analysis for better understanding of this gap. The paper targets a comprehensive and long-term project specifically focusing on holistic safe shipping in ice-covered waters as the analysis basis. It firstly creates a holistic framework for the shipping system in ice-covered waters and then implements review and analysis of project publications on their overall features. Quantitative prediction models are selected for a structured applicability analysis. Furthermore, an extensive review outside the project following the elements established for the holistic shipping system is conducted so that this paper provides an overview of models for the shipping system in ice-covered waters, addressing the status of the current toolbox. Moreover, it helps to identify the next scientific steps on risk management of shipping in ice-covered waters.Peer reviewe

Shipping Corridors as a Framework for Advancing Marine Law and Policy in the Canadian Arctic

This article describes how a new policy – Arctic shipping corridors – can provide an adaptable framework for advancing marine law and policy in the Canadian Arctic. As the polar ice pack recedes due to climate change, vessel traffic in the region is increasing. As an initial response, the Canadian federal government has proposed a system of voluntary marine transportation corridors. Shipping corridors are a pragmatic policy solution that could be used to advance a number of priority maritime issues including: responsible economic development, human and vessel safety, environmental protection, and Inuit rights. Effective designation and management of shipping corridors requires a more integrated approach than exists now to account for the complexity of the Arctic marine environment. This paper explores how corridor design can create a national arctic shipping policy that advances (1) marine safety, (2) Inuit land claims agreements, (3) environmental protection, and (4) international cooperation

Operational risk assessment for shipping in Arctic waters

Arctic navigation has many complexities due to its particular features such as ice, severe weather conditions, remoteness, low temperatures, lack of crew experience, and extended period of darkness or daylight. For these reasons, vessels, such as oil tankers, dry cargo ships, offshore supply vessels, research vessels, and passenger ships operating in the Arctic waters may pose a high risk of collision with ice and other ships causing human casualties, environmental pollution and the loss of assets. This thesis presents a conceptual framework that is focused on collision modelling. In order to understand the process of risk escalation and to attempt a proactive approach in constituting the collision models for Arctic navigation, the present thesis identifies various risk factors that are involved in a collision. Furthermore, the thesis proposes the probabilistic framework tools that are based on the identified risk factors to estimate the risks of collision in the Arctic. The proposed frameworks are used to model the collision based risk scenarios in the region. They are developed with the use of Bayesian Networks, the Nagel-Schreckenberg (NaSch), and Human Factor Analysis and Classification (HFACS) models. In the present thesis, the proposed models are theoretical in nature, but they can be useful in developing a collision monitoring system that provides a real time-estimate of collision probability that could help avoid collisions in the Arctic. Further, the estimated probabilities are also useful in decision making concerning safe independent and convoy operations in the region. The proposed frameworks simplifies maritime accident modeling by developing a practical understanding of the role of physical environment, navigational and operational related aspects of ships, and human errors, such as individual lapses, management failures, organizational failures, and economic factors in the collision related accidents in the Arctic. This research also identifies the macroscopic properties of maritime traffic flow and demonstrates how these properties influence collision properties. The thesis also presents an innovative accident model for ice-covered waters that estimates the collision probability and establishes the relationship between the macroscopic properties of the traffic flow with the contributory accidental risk factors in the region. The main focus of the present thesis is, to better understand, communicate, and incorporate specific risk factors into the maritime risk assessment processes, involve shipping organizations to agree on best practice methodologies and make the data sources easily available, and modify the Arctic risk management processes by implementing effective risk assessment techniques and appropriate risk treatment

Preparing for a Northwest Passage: A Workshop on the Role of New England in Navigating the New Arctic

Preparing for a Northwest Passage: A Workshop on the Role of New England in Navigating the New Arctic (March 25 - 27, 2018 -- The University of New Hampshire) paired two of NSF\u27s 10 Big Ideas: Navigating the New Arctic and Growing Convergence Research at NSF. During this event, participants assessed economic, environmental, and social impacts of Arctic change on New England and established convergence research initiatives to prepare for, adapt to, and respond to these effects. Shipping routes through an ice-free Northwest Passage in combination with modifications to ocean circulation and regional climate patterns linked to Arctic ice melt will affect trade, fisheries, tourism, coastal ecology, air and water quality, animal migration, and demographics not only in the Arctic but also in lower latitude coastal regions such as New England. With profound changes on the horizon, this is a critical opportunity for New England to prepare for uncertain yet inevitable economic and environmental impacts of Arctic change

Proceedings of the Workshop on Government Oil Spill Modeling

Oil spill model users and modelers were brought together for the purpose of fostering joint communication and increasing understanding of mutual problems. The workshop concentrated on defining user needs, presentations on ongoing modeling programs, and discussions of supporting research for these modeling efforts. Specific user recommendations include the development of an oil spill model user library which identifies and describes available models. The development of models for the long-term fate and effect of spilled oil was examined

Towards a probabilistic model for predicting ship besetting in ice in Arctic waters

International audienc

POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT AND BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT IN THE ARCTIC : Strategic opportunities and threats for Finnish companies

The Arctic environment is changing constantly. There are several factors that constitute to the rate and immensity of the development. The region differs from the surrounding markets that most of the countries in the region have been used to. Therefore the purpose of the study was to understand how the political environment affects Finnish companies’ strategies and business operations. The issues analyzed were the political environment in the region, the business environment and economic development, and the opportunities and threats that the Finnish companies have in Arctic. The main theories were found from strategic management and market analysis tools. The different theories and definitions were gone through in order to understand the context of the study. This is a qualitative study that uses content analysis as its main method of analyzing the data. Therefore the data analyzed was gathered from already existing material and it was analyzed until the saturation point was found. This was done in order to minimize the risks related to using secondary data. The data collected was then categorized into themes accordingly. First the general political environment in the Arctic was studied, especially the Arctic Council and its work as the main political entity. From there the focus shifted to the business environment and the general opportunities and threats that are found from Arctic economic development. China offered another point of view to this as it represented a non-Arctic state with a keen interest on the region. Lastly the two previous objectives were combined and looked through from a Finnish perspective. Finnish companies have a great starting point to Arctic business and the operational business environment gives them the framework with which they have to operate in. As a conclusion it can be said that there are three main factors leading the Arctic economic development; the climate change, the development of technology, and the political environment. These set the framework with which the companies operating in the region must comply with. The industry that is likely to lead the development is the marine industry. Furthermore it became evident that the Finnish companies operating in the Arctic face many opportunities as well as threats which can be utilized, taken advantage of or controlled through effective strategic management. The key characteristics needed in the region are openness and understanding of the challenging environment and the ability to face and manage the arising challenges

Economic feasibility of the Northern Sea Route container shipping development

Masteroppgave i bedriftsøkonomi - Høgskolen i Bodø, 2010From year to year the traffic of goods between Europe and Asia rises, the need for a new route for transportation becomes more and more obvious. The new route should be competitive to the others and has its own competitive advantage. Nowadays an extra day of transportation can increase costs dramatically for trade companies, so it is necessary to develop a route, which have a short transportation period as the main advantage. The Northern Sea Route is the challenging candidate. The research corresponds studying of major advantages and disadvantages of international transportation through the NSR. The case study, provided in the research, has a target to estimate costs of establishing a permanent transportation line along the NSR between East and West; calculation of the operating costs for the line and the comparison to the route through Suez Canal. The main aim of the research is to find out, if it is feasible for shippers to use the NSR for transit container shipping. The empirical part of the research is devoted to the collection data about the current state of the NSR development, interested parties of this development and the legal framework for NSR use. The data gathered from different sources, which include interviews with representatives of companies and organizations, interested in further NSR development, official guidelines and researches, based on similar topics. Analysis and further discussion revealed that the NSR can be competitive with comparison to the route through Suez Canal in the nearest future, if the work on solving current problems is successfully performed. During the research it was concluded, that the use of the NSR is not feasible nowadays, but the changes in legal framework, fees and global climate can bring the condition of the NSR closer to competitive level

Ice-Breaking Fleets of the United States and Canada: Assessing the Current State of Affairs and Future Plans

In recent years, a continuous decline of ice-coverage in the Arctic has been recorded, but these high latitudes are still dominated by earth’s polar ice cap. Therefore, safe and sustainable shipping operations in this still frozen region have as a precondition the availability of ice-breaking support. The analysis in hand provides an assessment of the United States’ and Canada’s polar ice-breaking program with the purpose of examining to what extent these countries’ relevant resources are able to meet the facilitated growth of industrial interests in the High North. This assessment will specifically focus on the maritime transportation sector along the Northwest Passage and consists of four main sections. The first provides a very brief description of the main Arctic passages. The second section specifically explores the current situation of the Northwest Passage, including the relevant navigational challenges, lack of infrastructure, available routes that may be used for transit, potential choke points, and current state of vessel activity along these routes. The third one examines the economic viability of the Northwest Passage compared to that of the Panama Canal; the fourth and final section is investigating the current and future capabilities of the United States’ and Canada’s ice-breaking fleet. Unfortunately, both countries were found to be lacking the necessary assets with ice-breaking capabilities and will need to accelerate their efforts in order to effectively respond to the growing needs of the Arctic. The total number of available ice-breaking assets is impacting negatively the level of support by the marine transportation system of both the United States and Canada; these two countries are facing the possibility to be unable to effectively meet the expected future needs because of the lengthy acquisition and production process required for new ice-breaking fleet