Investigating attributes affecting the performance of WBI users

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Computers and Education. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2013 Elsevier B.V.Numerous research studies have explored the effect of hypermedia on learners' performance using Web Based Instruction (WBI). A learner's performance is determined by their varying skills and abilities as well as various differences such as gender, cognitive style and prior knowledge. In this paper, we investigate how differences between individuals influenced learner's performance using a hypermedia system to accommodate an individual's preferences. The effect of learning performance is investigated to explore relationships between measurement attributes including gain scores (post-test minus pre-test), number of pages visited in a WBI program, and time spent on such pages. A data mining approach was used to analyze the results by comparing two clustering algorithms (K-Means and Hierarchical) with two different numbers of clusters. Individual differences had a significant impact on learner behavior in our WBI program. Additionally, we found that the relationship between attributes that measure performance played an influential role in exploring performance level; the relationship between such attributes induced rules in measuring level of a learners' performance

REVIEW PAPER ON WEB PAGE PREDICTION USING DATA MINING

The continuous growth of the World Wide Web imposes the need of new methods of design and determines how to access a web page in the web usage mining by performing preprocessing of the data in a web page and development of on-line information services. The need for predicting the user’s needs in order to improve the usability and user retention of a web site is more than evident now a day. Without proper guidance, a visitor often wanders aimlessly without visiting important pages, loses interest, and leaves the site sooner than expected. In proposed system focus on investigating efficient and effective sequential access pattern mining techniques for web usage data. The mined patterns are then used for matching and generating web links for online recommendations. A web page of interest application will be developed for evaluating the quality and effectiveness of the discovered knowledge.   Keyword: Webpage Prediction, Web Mining, MRF, ANN, KNN, GA

Design and Evaluation of a Probabilistic Music Projection Interface

We describe the design and evaluation of a probabilistic interface for music exploration and casual playlist generation. Predicted subjective features, such as mood and genre, inferred from low-level audio features create a 34- dimensional feature space. We use a nonlinear dimensionality reduction algorithm to create 2D music maps of tracks, and augment these with visualisations of probabilistic mappings of selected features and their uncertainty. We evaluated the system in a longitudinal trial in users’ homes over several weeks. Users said they had fun with the interface and liked the casual nature of the playlist generation. Users preferred to generate playlists from a local neighbourhood of the map, rather than from a trajectory, using neighbourhood selection more than three times more often than path selection. Probabilistic highlighting of subjective features led to more focused exploration in mouse activity logs, and 6 of 8 users said they preferred the probabilistic highlighting mode

Less users more confidence: How AOIs don’t affect scanpath trend analysis

User studies are typically difficult, recruiting enough users is often problematic and each experiment takes a considerable amount of time to be completed. In these studies, eye tracking is increasingly used which often increases time, therefore, the lower the number of users required for these studies the better for making these kinds of studies more practical in terms of economics and time expended. The possibility of achieving almost the same results with fewer users has already been raised. Specifically, the possibility of achieving 75% similarity to the results of 65 users with 27 users for searching tasks and 34 users for browsing tasks has been observed in scanpath trend analysis which discovers the most commonly followed path on a particular web page in terms of its visual elements or areas of interest (AOIs). Different approaches are available to segment or divide web pages into their visual elements or AOIs. In this paper, we investigate whether the possibility raised by the previous work is restricted to a particular page segmentation approach by replicating the experiments with two other segmentation approaches. The results are consistent with ~5% difference for the searching tasks and ~10% difference for the browsing tasks

Clickstream Data Analysis: A Clustering Approach Based on Mixture Hidden Markov Models

Nowadays, the availability of devices such as laptops and cell phones enables one to browse the web at any time and place. As a consequence, a company needs to have a website so as to maintain or increase customer loyalty and reach potential new customers. Besides, acting as a virtual point-of-sale, the company portal allows it to obtain insights on potential customers through clickstream data, web generated data that track users accesses and activities in websites. However, these data are not easy to handle as they are complex, unstructured and limited by lack of clear information about user intentions and goals. Clickstream data analysis is a suitable tool for managing the complexity of these datasets, obtaining a cleaned and processed sequential dataframe ready to identify and analyse patterns. Analysing clickstream data is important for companies as it enables them to under stand differences in web user behaviour while they explore websites, how they move from one page to another and what they select in order to define business strategies tar geting specific types of potential costumers. To obtain this level of insight it is pivotal to understand how to exploit hidden information related to clickstream data. This work presents the cleaning and pre-processing procedures for clickstream data which are needed to get a structured sequential dataset and analyses these sequences by the application of Mixture of discrete time Hidden Markov Models (MHMMs), a statisti cal tool suitable for clickstream data analysis and profile identification that has not been widely used in this context. Specifically, hidden Markov process accounts for a time varying latent variable to handle uncertainty and groups together observed states based on unknown similarity and entails identifying both the number of mixture components re lating to the subpopulations as well as the number of latent states for each latent Markov chain. However, the application of MHMMs requires the identification of both the number of components and states. Information Criteria (IC) are generally used for model selection in mixture hidden Markov models and, although their performance has been widely studied for mixture models and hidden Markov models, they have received little attention in the MHMM context. The most widely used criterion is BIC even if its performance for these models depends on factors such as the number of components and sequence length. Another class of model selection criteria is the Classification Criteria (CC). They were defined specifically for clustering purposes and rely on an entropy measure to account for separability between groups. These criteria are clearly the best option for our purpose, but their application as model selection tools for MHMMs requires the definition of a suitable entropy measure. In the light of these considerations, this work proposes a classification criterion based on an integrated classification likelihood approach for MHMMs that accounts for the two latent classes in the model: the subpopulations and the hidden states. This criterion is a modified ICL BIC, a classification criterion that was originally defined in the mixture model context and used in hidden Markov models. ICL BIC is a suitable score to identify the number of classes (components or states) and, thus, to extend it to MHMMs we de fined a joint entropy accounting for both a component-related entropy and a state-related conditional entropy. The thesis presents a Monte Carlo simulation study to compare selection criteria per formance, the results of which point out the limitations of the most commonly used infor mation criteria and demonstrate that the proposed criterion outperforms them in identify ing components and states, especially in short length sequences which are quite common in website accesses. The proposed selection criterion was applied to real clickstream data collected from the website of a Sicilian company operating in the hospitality sector. Data was modelled by an MHMM identifying clusters related to the browsing behaviour of web users which provided essential indications for developing new business strategies. This thesis is structured as follows: after an introduction on the main topics in Chapter 1, we present the clickstream data and their cleaning and pre-processing steps in Chapter 2; Chapter 3 illustrates the structure and estimation algorithms of mixture hidden Markov models; Chapter 4 presents a review of model selection criteria and the definition of the proposed ICL BIC for MHMMs; the real clickstream data analysis follows in Chapter 5