The evidence for and against astronomical impacts on climate change and mass extinctions: A review

Numerous studies over the past 30 years have suggested there is a causal connection between the motion of the Sun through the Galaxy and terrestrial mass extinctions or climate change. Proposed mechanisms include comet impacts (via perturbation of the Oort cloud), cosmic rays and supernovae, the effects of which are modulated by the passage of the Sun through the Galactic midplane or spiral arms. Supposed periodicities in the fossil record, impact cratering dates or climate proxies over the Phanerozoic (past 545 Myr) are frequently cited as evidence in support of these hypotheses. This remains a controversial subject, with many refutations and replies having been published. Here I review both the mechanisms and the evidence for and against the relevance of astronomical phenomena to climate change and evolution. This necessarily includes a critical assessment of time series analysis techniques and hypothesis testing. Some of the studies have suffered from flaws in methodology, in particular drawing incorrect conclusions based on ruling out a null hypothesis. I conclude that there is little evidence for intrinsic periodicities in biodiversity, impact cratering or climate on timescales of tens to hundreds of Myr. Furthermore, Galactic midplane and spiral arm crossings seem to have little or no impact on biological or climate variation above background level. (truncated)Comment: 51 pages, 7 figures, 140 references. To appear in the International Journal of Astrobiology. For hyperref version with full resolution figures see http://www.mpia-hd.mpg.de/homes/calj/astimpact_ija.pd

Salience-based selection: attentional capture by distractors less salient than the target

Current accounts of attentional capture predict the most salient stimulus to be invariably selected first. However, existing salience and visual search models assume noise in the map computation or selection process. Consequently, they predict the first selection to be stochastically dependent on salience, implying that attention could even be captured first by the second most salient (instead of the most salient) stimulus in the field. Yet, capture by less salient distractors has not been reported and salience-based selection accounts claim that the distractor has to be more salient in order to capture attention. We tested this prediction using an empirical and modeling approach of the visual search distractor paradigm. For the empirical part, we manipulated salience of target and distractor parametrically and measured reaction time interference when a distractor was present compared to absent. Reaction time interference was strongly correlated with distractor salience relative to the target. Moreover, even distractors less salient than the target captured attention, as measured by reaction time interference and oculomotor capture. In the modeling part, we simulated first selection in the distractor paradigm using behavioral measures of salience and considering the time course of selection including noise. We were able to replicate the result pattern we obtained in the empirical part. We conclude that each salience value follows a specific selection time distribution and attentional capture occurs when the selection time distributions of target and distractor overlap. Hence, selection is stochastic in nature and attentional capture occurs with a certain probability depending on relative salience

Alpha-band rhythms in visual task performance: phase-locking by rhythmic sensory stimulation

Oscillations are an important aspect of neuronal activity. Interestingly, oscillatory patterns are also observed in behaviour, such as in visual performance measures after the presentation of a brief sensory event in the visual or another modality. These oscillations in visual performance cycle at the typical frequencies of brain rhythms, suggesting that perception may be closely linked to brain oscillations. We here investigated this link for a prominent rhythm of the visual system (the alpha-rhythm, 8-12 Hz) by applying rhythmic visual stimulation at alpha-frequency (10.6 Hz), known to lead to a resonance response in visual areas, and testing its effects on subsequent visual target discrimination. Our data show that rhythmic visual stimulation at 10.6 Hz: 1) has specific behavioral consequences, relative to stimulation at control frequencies (3.9 Hz, 7.1 Hz, 14.2 Hz), and 2) leads to alpha-band oscillations in visual performance measures, that 3) correlate in precise frequency across individuals with resting alpha-rhythms recorded over parieto-occipital areas. The most parsimonious explanation for these three findings is entrainment (phase-locking) of ongoing perceptually relevant alpha-band brain oscillations by rhythmic sensory events. These findings are in line with occipital alpha-oscillations underlying periodicity in visual performance, and suggest that rhythmic stimulation at frequencies of intrinsic brain-rhythms can be used to reveal influences of these rhythms on task performance to study their functional roles

The NASA-UC-UH Eta-Earth Program: IV. A Low-mass Planet Orbiting an M Dwarf 3.6 PC from Earth

We report the discovery of a low-mass planet orbiting Gl 15 A based on radial velocities from the Eta-Earth Survey using HIRES at Keck Observatory. Gl 15 Ab is a planet with minimum mass Msini = 5.35 $\pm$ 0.75 M$_\oplus$, orbital period P = 11.4433 $\pm$ 0.0016 days, and an orbit that is consistent with circular. We characterize the host star using a variety of techniques. Photometric observations at Fairborn Observatory show no evidence for rotational modulation of spots at the orbital period to a limit of ~0.1 mmag, thus supporting the existence of the planet. We detect a second RV signal with a period of 44 days that we attribute to rotational modulation of stellar surface features, as confirmed by optical photometry and the Ca II H & K activity indicator. Using infrared spectroscopy from Palomar-TripleSpec, we measure an M2 V spectral type and a sub-solar metallicity ([M/H] = -0.22, [Fe/H] = -0.32). We measure a stellar radius of 0.3863 $\pm$ 0.0021 R$_\odot$ based on interferometry from CHARA.Comment: ApJ accepted, 11 pages, 8 figures, 3 table

Geodetic Observations of Weak Determinism in Rupture Evolution of Large Earthquakes.

The moment evolution of large earthquakes is a subject of fundamental interest to both basic and applied seismology. Specifically, an open problem is when in the rupture process a large earthquake exhibits features dissimilar from those of a lesser magnitude event. The answer to this question is of importance for rapid, reliable estimation of earthquake magnitude, a major priority of earthquake and tsunami early warning systems. Much effort has been made to test whether earthquakes are deterministic, meaning that observations in the first few seconds of rupture can be used to predict the final rupture extent. However, results have been inconclusive, especially for large earthquakes greater than M w 7. Traditional seismic methods struggle to rapidly distinguish the size of large-magnitude events, in particular near the source, even after rupture completion, making them insufficient to resolve the question of predictive rupture behavior. Displacements derived from Global Navigation Satellite System data can accurately estimate magnitude in real time, even for the largest earthquakes. We employ a combination of seismic and geodetic (Global Navigation Satellite System) data to investigate early rupture metrics, to determine whether observational data support deterministic rupture behavior. We find that while the earliest metrics (~5 s of data) are not enough to infer final earthquake magnitude, accurate estimates are possible within the first tens of seconds, prior to rupture completion, suggesting a weak determinism. We discuss the implications for earthquake source physics and rupture evolution and address recommendations for earthquake and tsunami early warning

Inferring Latent States and Refining Force Estimates via Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Modeling in Single Particle Tracking Experiments

Optical microscopy provides rich spatio-temporal information characterizing in vivo molecular motion. However, effective forces and other parameters used to summarize molecular motion change over time in live cells due to latent state changes, e.g., changes induced by dynamic micro-environments, photobleaching, and other heterogeneity inherent in biological processes. This study focuses on techniques for analyzing Single Particle Tracking (SPT) data experiencing abrupt state changes. We demonstrate the approach on GFP tagged chromatids experiencing metaphase in yeast cells and probe the effective forces resulting from dynamic interactions that reflect the sum of a number of physical phenomena. State changes are induced by factors such as microtubule dynamics exerting force through the centromere, thermal polymer fluctuations, etc. Simulations are used to demonstrate the relevance of the approach in more general SPT data analyses. Refined force estimates are obtained by adopting and modifying a nonparametric Bayesian modeling technique, the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Switching Linear Dynamical System (HDP-SLDS), for SPT applications. The HDP-SLDS method shows promise in systematically identifying dynamical regime changes induced by unobserved state changes when the number of underlying states is unknown in advance (a common problem in SPT applications). We expand on the relevance of the HDP-SLDS approach, review the relevant background of Hierarchical Dirichlet Processes, show how to map discrete time HDP-SLDS models to classic SPT models, and discuss limitations of the approach. In addition, we demonstrate new computational techniques for tuning hyperparameters and for checking the statistical consistency of model assumptions directly against individual experimental trajectories; the techniques circumvent the need for "ground-truth" and subjective information.Comment: 25 pages, 6 figures. Differs only typographically from PLoS One publication available freely as an open-access article at http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.013763

On bubble clustering and energy spectra in pseudo-turbulence

3D-Particle Tracking (3D-PTV) and Phase Sensitive Constant Temperature Anemometry in pseudo-turbulence--i.e., flow solely driven by rising bubbles-- were performed to investigate bubble clustering and to obtain the mean bubble rise velocity, distributions of bubble velocities, and energy spectra at dilute gas concentrations ($\alpha \leq2.2$%). To characterize the clustering the pair correlation function $G(r,\theta)$ was calculated. The deformable bubbles with equivalent bubble diameter $d_b=4-5$ mm were found to cluster within a radial distance of a few bubble radii with a preferred vertical orientation. This vertical alignment was present at both small and large scales. For small distances also some horizontal clustering was found. The large number of data-points and the non intrusiveness of PTV allowed to obtain well-converged Probability Density Functions (PDFs) of the bubble velocity. The PDFs had a non-Gaussian form for all velocity components and intermittency effects could be observed. The energy spectrum of the liquid velocity fluctuations decayed with a power law of -3.2, different from the $\approx -5/3$ found for homogeneous isotropic turbulence, but close to the prediction -3 by \cite{lance} for pseudo-turbulence

Analysis of the visual spatiotemporal properties of American Sign Language.

Careful measurements of the temporal dynamics of speech have provided important insights into phonetic properties of spoken languages, which are important for understanding auditory perception. By contrast, analytic quantification of the visual properties of signed languages is still largely uncharted. Exposure to sign language is a unique experience that could shape and modify low-level visual processing for those who use it regularly (i.e., what we refer to as the Enhanced Exposure Hypothesis). The purpose of the current study was to characterize the visual spatiotemporal properties of American Sign Language (ASL) so that future studies can test the enhanced exposure hypothesis in signers, with the prediction that altered vision should be observed within, more so than outside, the range of properties found in ASL. Using an ultrasonic motion tracking system, we recorded the hand position in 3-dimensional space over time during sign language production of signs, sentences, and narratives. From these data, we calculated several metrics: hand position and eccentricity in space and hand motion speed. For individual signs, we also measured total distance travelled by the dominant hand and total duration of each sign. These metrics were found to fall within a selective range, suggesting that exposure to signs is a specific and unique visual experience, which might alter visual perceptual abilities in signers for visual information within the experienced range, even for non-language stimuli