INDEMICS: An Interactive High-Performance Computing Framework for Data Intensive Epidemic Modeling

We describe the design and prototype implementation of Indemics (_Interactive; Epi_demic; _Simulation;)—a modeling environment utilizing high-performance computing technologies for supporting complex epidemic simulations. Indemics can support policy analysts and epidemiologists interested in planning and control of pandemics. Indemics goes beyond traditional epidemic simulations by providing a simple and powerful way to represent and analyze policy-based as well as individual-based adaptive interventions. Users can also stop the simulation at any point, assess the state of the simulated system, and add additional interventions. Indemics is available to end-users via a web-based interface. Detailed performance analysis shows that Indemics greatly enhances the capability and productivity of simulating complex intervention strategies with a marginal decrease in performance. We also demonstrate how Indemics was applied in some real case studies where complex interventions were implemented

A Virtual Conversational Agent for Teens with Autism: Experimental Results and Design Lessons

We present the design of an online social skills development interface for teenagers with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). The interface is intended to enable private conversation practice anywhere, anytime using a web-browser. Users converse informally with a virtual agent, receiving feedback on nonverbal cues in real-time, and summary feedback. The prototype was developed in consultation with an expert UX designer, two psychologists, and a pediatrician. Using the data from 47 individuals, feedback and dialogue generation were automated using a hidden Markov model and a schema-driven dialogue manager capable of handling multi-topic conversations. We conducted a study with nine high-functioning ASD teenagers. Through a thematic analysis of post-experiment interviews, identified several key design considerations, notably: 1) Users should be fully briefed at the outset about the purpose and limitations of the system, to avoid unrealistic expectations. 2) An interface should incorporate positive acknowledgment of behavior change. 3) Realistic appearance of a virtual agent and responsiveness are important in engaging users. 4) Conversation personalization, for instance in prompting laconic users for more input and reciprocal questions, would help the teenagers engage for longer terms and increase the system's utility

A Systems Approach to Healthcare: Agent-based Modeling, Community Mental Health, and Population Well-being

Purpose Explore whether agent-based modeling and simulation can help healthcare administrators discover interventions that increase population wellness and quality of care while, simultaneously, decreasing costs. Since important dynamics often lie in the social determinants outside the health facilities that provide services, this study thus models the problem at three levels (individuals, organizations, and society). Methods The study explores the utility of translating an existing (prize winning) software for modeling complex societal systems and agent\u27s daily life activities (like a Sim City style of software), into a desired decision support system. A case study tests if the 3 levels of system modeling approach is feasible, valid, and useful. The case study involves an urban population with serious mental health and Philadelphia\u27s Medicaid population (n = 527,056), in particular. Results Section 3 explains the models using data from the case study and thereby establishes feasibility of the approach for modeling a real system. The models were trained and tuned using national epidemiologic datasets and various domain expert inputs. To avoid co-mingling of training and testing data, the simulations were then run and compared (Section 4.1) to an analysis of 250,000 Philadelphia patient hospital admissions for the year 2010 in terms of re-hospitalization rate, number of doctor visits, and days in hospital. Based on the Student t-test, deviations between simulated vs. real world outcomes are not statistically significant. Validity is thus established for the 2008–2010 timeframe. We computed models of various types of interventions that were ineffective as well as 4 categories of interventions (e.g., reduced per-nurse caseload, increased check-ins and stays, etc.) that result in improvement in well-being and cost. Conclusions The 3 level approach appears to be useful to help health administrators sort through system complexities to find effective interventions at lower costs

Activity-based epidemic propagation and contact network scaling in auto-depending metropolitan areas

We build on recent work to develop a fully mechanistic, activity-based and highly spatio-temporally resolved epidemiological model which leverages person-trajectories obtained from an activity-based model calibrated for two full-scale prototype cities, consisting of representative synthetic populations and mobility networks for two contrasting auto-dependent city typologies. We simulate the propagation of the COVID-19 epidemic in both cities to analyze spreading patterns in urban networks across various activity types. Investigating the impact of the transit network, we find that its removal dampens disease propagation significantly, suggesting that transit restriction is more critical for mitigating post-peak disease spreading in transit dense cities. In the latter stages of disease spread, we find that the greatest share of infections occur at work locations. A statistical analysis of the resulting activity-based contact networks indicates that transit contacts are scale-free, work contacts are Weibull distributed, and shopping or leisure contacts are exponentially distributed. We validate our simulation results against existing case and mortality data across multiple cities in their respective typologies. Our framework demonstrates the potential for tracking epidemic propagation in urban networks, analyzing socio-demographic impacts and assessing activity- and mobility-specific implications of both non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical intervention strategies

i-FRAME – Assessing impacts of social policy innovation in the EU: Proposed methodological framework to evaluate socio-economic returns on investment of social policy innovations

This report presents the final proposal for developing a methodological framework to assess the impacts generated by social policy innovations which promote social investment in the EU, in short i-FRAME. This framework has the objective to provide a structured approach that shall serve as a comprehensive framework for conducting analysis of the economic and social returns on investments of social policy innovations. It also aims to act as a guide to gather insights into replicability and transferability of initiatives which promote social investment across the EU. The report outlines the reviewed and improved theoretical and methodological approach developed by the JRC with help from external experts, and validated by testing the operational components proposed on a number of case studies and scenarios of use. After outlining the conceptual and methodological approach underpinning the i-FRAME (V1.0), the report discusses the proposal for building its operational components according to a structured theoretical framework of a dynamic simulation model for social impact assessment (V1.5). The final proposal for i-FRAME (V2.0) and an overview of the operational components for its implementation are then presented discussing the key elements that should be developed to build a comprehensive i-FRAME Web-Platform and simulator for social impact assessment. Conclusions are then offered in terms of implications for policy and directions for future research. These were drawn after consulting experts from different research disciplines, practitioners and representatives of relevant stakeholders and policymakers, and they include .recommendations for further developing the operational components proposed, paving the way towards building the i-FRAME (V3.0) and beyond.JRC.B.4-Human Capital and Employmen

Connecting Levels of Analysis in Educational Neuroscience: A Review of Multi-level Structure of Educational Neuroscience with Concrete Examples

In its origins educational neuroscience has started as an endeavor to discuss implications of neuroscience studies for education. However, it is now on its way to become a transdisciplinary field, incorporating findings, theoretical frameworks and methodologies from education, and cognitive and brain sciences. Given the differences and diversity in the originating disciplines, it has been a challenge for educational neuroscience to integrate both theoretical and methodological perspective in education and neuroscience in a coherent way. We present a multi-level framework for educational neuroscience, which argues for integration of multiple levels of analysis, some originating in brain and cognitive sciences, others in education, as a roadmap for the future of educational neuroscience with concrete examples in moral education

A theoretical and practical approach to a persuasive agent model for change behaviour in oral care and hygiene

There is an increased use of the persuasive agent in behaviour change interventions due to the agent‘s features of sociable, reactive, autonomy, and proactive. However, many interventions have been unsuccessful, particularly in the domain of oral care. The psychological reactance has been identified as one of the major reasons for these unsuccessful behaviour change interventions. This study proposes a formal persuasive agent model that leads to psychological reactance reduction in order to achieve an improved behaviour change intervention in oral care and hygiene. Agent-based simulation methodology is adopted for the development of the proposed model. Evaluation of the model was conducted in two phases that include verification and validation. The verification process involves simulation trace and stability analysis. On the other hand, the validation was carried out using user-centred approach by developing an agent-based application based on belief-desire-intention architecture. This study contributes an agent model which is made up of interrelated cognitive and behavioural factors. Furthermore, the simulation traces provide some insights on the interactions among the identified factors in order to comprehend their roles in behaviour change intervention. The simulation result showed that as time increases, the psychological reactance decreases towards zero. Similarly, the model validation result showed that the percentage of respondents‘ who experienced psychological reactance towards behaviour change in oral care and hygiene was reduced from 100 percent to 3 percent. The contribution made in this thesis would enable agent application and behaviour change intervention designers to make scientific reasoning and predictions. Likewise, it provides a guideline for software designers on the development of agent-based applications that may not have psychological reactance

Viewfinder: final activity report

The VIEW-FINDER project (2006-2009) is an 'Advanced Robotics' project that seeks to apply a semi-autonomous robotic system to inspect ground safety in the event of a fire. Its primary aim is to gather data (visual and chemical) in order to assist rescue personnel. A base station combines the gathered information with information retrieved from off-site sources. The project addresses key issues related to map building and reconstruction, interfacing local command information with external sources, human-robot interfaces and semi-autonomous robot navigation. The VIEW-FINDER system is a semi-autonomous; the individual robot-sensors operate autonomously within the limits of the task assigned to them, that is, they will autonomously navigate through and inspect an area. Human operators monitor their operations and send high level task requests as well as low level commands through the interface to any nodes in the entire system. The human interface has to ensure the human supervisor and human interveners are provided a reduced but good and relevant overview of the ground and the robots and human rescue workers therein

Representing decision-makers using styles of behavior: an approach designed for group decision support systems

Supporting decision-making processes when the elements of a group are geographically dispersed and on a tight schedule is a complex task. Aiming to support decision-makers anytime and anywhere, Web-based group decision support systems have been studied. However, the limitations in the decision-makers’ interactions associated to this scenario bring new challenges. In this work, we propose a set of behavioral styles from which decision-makers’ intentions can be modelled into agents. The goal is that, besides having agents represent typical preferences of the decision-makers (towards alternatives and criteria), they can also represent their intentions. To do so, we conducted a survey with 64 participants in order to find homogeneous operating values so as to numerically define the proposed behavioral styles in four dimensions. In addition, we also propose a communication model that simulates the dialogues made by decision-makers in face-to-face meetings. We developed a prototype to simulate decision scenarios and found that agents are capable of acting according to the decision-makers’ intentions and fundamentally benefit from different possible behavioral styles, just as a face-to-face meeting benefits from the heterogeneity of its participants.This work was supported by COMPETE Programme (operational programme for competitiveness) within Project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007043, by National Funds through the FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) within the Projects UID/CEC/00319/2013, UID/EEA/00760/2013, and the Ph.D. grants SFRH/BD/89697/2012 and SFRH/BD/89465/2012 attributed to João Carneiro and Pedro Saraiva, respectively.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio