A Method and Model to Predict Initial Failure Rates

It has long been well known that actual system reliability typically falls well short of early estimates. Failure rates are often ten or more times higher than anticipated. Many reasons have been given for this, but over-optimism is the fundamental cause of too-favorable reliability predictions. Most forecasts of reliability are essentially best-case scenarios, as are predictions of budget and schedule. Confident engineers assemble estimates bottom-up, including the known factors and ignoring problems that they hope wont happen. Traditional reliability estimation is based on simply summing up the component failure rates. This ignores most actual failure causes. The way to reduce over-optimism is to use the historical system level failure rate from similar projects. Adjustments should not be made based purely on engineering judgment, but only if there is so logical quantitative justification. The traditional component-based reliability estimate is useful as a lower bound on the system failure rate. The difference between this lower bound component-based reliability and the historical system level reliability indicates how much of the total failure rate is due to system level problems rather than component failures

Prognostic implications of left ventricular global longitudinal strain in heart failure patients with narrow QRS complex treated with cardiac resynchronization therapy: a subanalysis of the randomized EchoCRT trial

Aim: Left ventricular (LV) global longitudinal strain (GLS) reflects LV systolic function and correlates inversely with the extent of LV myocardial scar and fibrosis. The present subanalysis of the Echocardiography Guided CRT trial investigated the prognostic value of LV GLS in patients with narrow QRS complex. Methods and results: Left ventricular (LV) global longitudinal strain (GLS) was measured on the apical 2-, 4- and 3-chamber views using speckle tracking analysis. Measurement of baseline LV GLS was feasible in 755 patients (374 with cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT)-ON and 381 with CRT-OFF). The median value of LV GLS in the overall population was 7.9%, interquartile range 6.2–10.1%. After a mean follow-up period of 19.4 months, 95 patients in the CRT-OFF group and 111 in the CRT-ON group reached the combined primary endpoint of all-cause mortality and heart failure hospitalization. Each 1% absolute unit decrease in LV GLS was independently associated with 11% increase in the risk to reach the primary endpoint (Hazard ratio 1.11; 95% confidence interval 95% 1.04–1.17, P < 0.001), after adjusting for ischaemic cardiomyopathy and randomization treatment among other clinically relevant variables. When categorizing patients according to quartiles of LV GLS, the primary endpoint occurred more frequently in patients in the lowest quartile (<6.2%) treated with CRT-ON vs. CRT-OFF (45.6% vs. 28.7%, P = 0.009) whereas, no differences were observed in patients with LV GLS ≥6.2% treated with CRT-OFF vs. CRT-ON (23.7% vs. 24.5%, respectively; P  = 0.62). Conclusion: Low LV GLS is associated with poor outcome in heart failure patients with QRS width <130 ms, independent of randomization to CRT or not. Importantly, in the group of patients with the lowest LV GLS quartile, CRT may have a detrimental effect on clinical outcomes

Mortality after admission for acute myocardial infarction in Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people in New South Wales, Australia: a multilevel data linkage study

Background - Heart disease is a leading cause of the gap in burden of disease between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians. Our study investigated short- and long-term mortality after admission for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people admitted with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) to public hospitals in New South Wales, Australia, and examined the impact of the hospital of admission on outcomes. Methods - Admission records were linked to mortality records for 60047 patients aged 25–84 years admitted with a diagnosis of AMI between July 2001 and December 2008. Multilevel logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (AOR) for 30- and 365-day all-cause mortality. Results - Aboriginal patients admitted with an AMI were younger than non-Aboriginal patients, and more likely to be admitted to lower volume, remote hospitals without on-site angiography. Adjusting for age, sex, year and hospital, Aboriginal patients had a similar 30-day mortality risk to non-Aboriginal patients (AOR: 1.07; 95% CI 0.83-1.37) but a higher risk of dying within 365 days (AOR: 1.34; 95% CI 1.10-1.63). The latter difference did not persist after adjustment for comorbid conditions (AOR: 1.12; 95% CI 0.91-1.38). Patients admitted to more remote hospitals, those with lower patient volume and those without on-site angiography had increased risk of short and long-term mortality regardless of Aboriginal status. Conclusions - Improving access to larger hospitals and those with specialist cardiac facilities could improve outcomes following AMI for all patients. However, major efforts to boost primary and secondary prevention of AMI are required to reduce the mortality gap between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal people

Efficacy of pimobendan in the prevention of congestive heart failure or sudden death in doberman pinschers with preclinical dilated cardiomyopathy (the PROTECT study)

<p>Background: The benefit of pimobendan in delaying the progression of preclinical dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) in Dobermans is not reported.</p> <p>Hypothesis: That chronic oral administration of pimobendan to Dobermans with preclinical DCM will delay the onset of CHF or sudden death and improve survival.</p> <p>Animals: Seventy-six client-owned Dobermans recruited at 10 centers in the UK and North America.</p> <p>Methods: The trial was a randomized, blinded, placebo-controlled, parallel group multicenter study. Dogs were allocated in a 1:1 ratio to receive pimobendan (Vetmedin capsules) or visually identical placebo.</p> <p>The composite primary endpoint was prospectively defined as either onset of CHF or sudden death. Time to death from all causes was a secondary endpoint.</p> <p>Results: The proportion of dogs reaching the primary endpoint was not significantly different between groups (P = .1). The median time to the primary endpoint (onset of CHF or sudden death) was significantly longer in the pimobendan (718 days, IQR 441–1152 days) versus the placebo group (441 days, IQR 151–641 days) (log-rank P = 0.0088). The median survival time was significantly longer in the pimobendan (623 days, IQR 491–1531 days) versus the placebo group (466 days, IQR 236–710 days) (log-rank P = .034).</p> <p>Conclusion and Clinical Importance: The administration of pimobendan to Dobermans with preclinical DCM prolongs the time to the onset of clinical signs and extends survival. Treatment of dogs in the preclinical phase of this common cardiovascular disorder with pimobendan can lead to improved outcome.</p&gt

Direct admission to the intensive care unit from the emergency department and mortality in critically ill hematology patients

Background: The aim of this study was to assess the benefit of direct ICU admission from the emergency department (ED) compared to admission from wards, in patients with hematological malignancies requiring critical care. Methods: Post hoc analysis derived from a prospective, multicenter cohort study of 1011 critically ill adult patients with hematologic malignancies admitted to 17 ICU in Belgium and France from January 2010 to May 2011. The variable of interest was a direct ICU admission from the ED and the outcome was in-hospital mortality. The association between the variable of interest and the outcome was assessed by multivariable logistic regression after multiple imputation of missing data. Several sensitivity analyses were performed: complete case analysis, propensity score matching and multivariable Cox proportional-hazards analysis of 90-day survival. Results: Direct ICU admission from the ED occurred in 266 (26.4%) cases, 84 of whom (31.6%) died in the hospital versus 311/742 (41.9%) in those who did not. After adjustment, direct ICU admission from the ED was associated with a decreased in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR: 0.63; 95% CI 0.45-0.88). This was confirmed in the complete cases analysis (adjusted OR: 0.64; 95% CI 0.45-0.92) as well as in terms of hazard of death within the 90 days after admission (adjusted HR: 0.77; 95% CI 0.60-0.99). By contrast, in the propensity score-matched sample of 402 patients, direct admission was not associated with in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR: 0.92; 95% CI 0.84-1.01). Conclusions: In this study, patients with hematological malignancies admitted to the ICU were more likely to be alive at hospital discharge if they were directly admitted from the ED rather than from the wards. Assessment of early predictors of poor outcome in cancer patients admitted to the ED is crucial so as to allow early referral to the ICU and avoid delays in treatment initiation and mis-orientation

Automated Home Oxygen Delivery for Patients with COPD and Respiratory Failure: A New Approach

Long-term oxygen therapy (LTOT) has become standard care for the treatment of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and other severe hypoxemic lung diseases. The use of new portable O-2 concentrators (POC) in LTOT is being expanded. However, the issue of oxygen titration is not always properly addressed, since POCs rely on proper use by patients. The robustness of algorithms and the limited reliability of current oximetry sensors are hindering the effectiveness of new approaches to closed-loop POCs based on the feedback of blood oxygen saturation. In this study, a novel intelligent portable oxygen concentrator (iPOC) is described. The presented iPOC is capable of adjusting the O-2 flow automatically by real-time classifying the intensity of a patient's physical activity (PA). It was designed with a group of patients with COPD and stable chronic respiratory failure. The technical pilot test showed a weighted accuracy of 91.1% in updating the O-2 flow automatically according to medical prescriptions, and a general improvement in oxygenation compared to conventional POCs. In addition, the usability achieved was high, which indicated a significant degree of user satisfaction. This iPOC may have important benefits, including improved oxygenation, increased compliance with therapy recommendations, and the promotion of PA