An Updated Assessment of the Changing Arctic Sea Ice Cover

Sea ice is an essential component of the Arctic climate system. The Arctic sea ice cover has undergone substantial changes in the past 40+ years, including decline in areal extent in all months (strongest during summer), thinning, loss of multiyear ice cover, earlier melt onset and ice retreat, and later freeze-up and ice advance. In the past 10 years, these trends have been further reinforced, though the trends (not statistically significant at p <0.05) in some parameters (e.g., extent) over the past decade are more moderate. Since 2011, observing capabilities have improved significantly, including collection of the first basin-wide routine observations of sea ice freeboard and thickness by radar and laser altimeters (except during summer). In addition, data from a year-long field campaign during 2019–2020 promises to yield a bounty of in situ data that will vastly improve understanding of small-scale processes and the interactions between sea ice, the ocean, and the atmosphere, as well as provide valuable validation data for satellite missions. Sea ice impacts within the Arctic are clear and are already affecting humans as well as flora and fauna. Impacts outside of the Arctic, while garner-ing much attention, remain unclear. The future of Arctic sea ice is dependent on future CO2 emissions, but a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean is likely in the coming decades. However, year-to-year variability causes considerable uncertainty on exactly when this will happen. The variability is also a challenge for seasonal prediction

Responses of boreal vegetation to recent climate change

The high northern latitudes have warmed faster than anywhere else in the globe during the past few decades. Boreal ecosystems are responding to this rapid climatic change in complex ways and some times contrary to expectations, with large implications for the global climate system. This thesis investigates how boreal vegetation has responded to recent climate change, particularly to the lengthening of the growing season and changes in drought severity with warming. The links between the timing of the growing season and the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 are evaluated in detail to infer large-scale ecosystem responses to changing seasonality and extended period of plant growth. The influence of warming on summer drought severity is estimated at a regional scale for the first time using improved data. The results show that ecosystem responses to warming and lengthening of the growing season in autumn are opposite to those in spring. Earlier springs are associated with earlier onset of photosynthetic uptake of atmospheric CO2 by northern vegetation, whereas a delayed autumn, rather than being associated with prolonged photosynthetic uptake, is associated with earlier ecosystem carbon release to the atmosphere. Moreover, the photosynthetic growing season has closely tracked the pace of warming and extension of the potential growing season in spring, but not in autumn. Rapid warming since the late 1980s has increased evapotranspiration demand and consequently summer and autumn drought severity, offsetting the effect of increasing cold-season precipitation. This is consistent with ongoing amplification of the hydrological cycle and with model projections of summer drying at northern latitudes in response to anthropogenic warming. However, changes in snow dynamics (accumulation and melting) appear to be more important than increased evaporative demand in controlling changes in summer soil moisture availability and vegetation photosynthesis across extensive regions of the boreal zone, where vegetation growth is often assumed to be dominantly temperature-limited. Snow-mediated moisture controls of vegetation growth are particularly significant in northwestern North America. In this region, a non-linear growth response of white spruce growth to recent warming at high elevations was observed. Taken together, these results indicate that net observed responses of northern ecosystems to warming involve significant seasonal contrasts, can be non-linear and are mediated by moisture availability in about a third of the boreal zone

Hydroclimate in Eurasia from the Arctic to the Tropics

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2018Hydrometeorology in Eurasia connects the Arctic with lower latitudes through exchanges in moisture and teleconnections influencing climate variability. This thesis investigates the role of dams on the Kolyma basin, of precipitation and temperature change on a pristine permafrost lined basin of the Yana, and of changing snow cover over Eurasia on the Indian Monsoon. These three pieces of work illustrate different aspects of a changing climate that impact Eurasian hydrometeorological variations. The Kolyma is one of the large rivers which flows into the Arctic Ocean where there has been a large winter increase and summer decrease in flow over the 1986-2000 period. Winter months are characterized by low flow while summer months by high flow. Reservoir regulation was identified as the main cause of changes in the discharge pattern, since water is released in winter for power generation and stored in summer for flood control. The overall discharge to the Arctic Ocean has decreased for Kolyma basin, despite the increase during winter. This study documents how human activities (particularly reservoirs) impact seasonal and regional hydrological variations. The Yana Basin is a small pristine basin that has experienced minimal human impact and is ideal for investigating the role of climate variability on discharge. The precipitation discharge and temperature discharge analysis for Ubileinaya suggests that increased precipitation and higher temperatures resulted in higher discharge, but other parameters also come into play since greater precipitation does not always yield higher discharge. Overall our analysis for this station has increased our understanding of natural basins and how the climate variables like precipitation and temperature play a role. Recent increases in May-June Indian monsoon rain fall were investigated in the context of Eurasian snow cover variations since the onset of the monsoon has long been linked to Himalayan snow cover. Himalayan snow cover and depth have decreased and this study argues that this is the driver of increased rainfall during May-June, the pre-monsoon and early monsoon period. In addition, there has been an increase in snow water equivalent in Northern part of Eurasia and decrease in Southern part, suggesting that the anomalies are large-scale. Storm track analysis reveals an increase in the number of storms in northern and a decrease in southern Eurasia. The large-scale Eurasian snow increases have been shown by other studies to be linked to Arctic sea ice decline. The direct linkage between fall Arctic sea ice decline and an increase in May-June Indian monsoon rainfall is proposed in this work but the exact climate mechanism is tenuous at this point. This study is focused on understanding changing Arctic rivers and the connection of the Arctic with the Indian monsoon. Our study has shed some light into the connection between the Arctic and the tropics. This study could benefit from modeling study where we could have case study with and without sea ice to understand better how that could impact the monsoon and the hydrological cycle in the present and the future. Better understanding of the mechanism would help us take steps towards better adaptation policies.1. Introduction -- 1.1 Introduction to Arctic Hydrology -- 1.2 Introduction to Indian Monsoon and its link to the Arctic -- 1.3 Scientific Questions and Objectives -- 1.4 References. 2. Streamflow Characteristics and Changes in Kolyma Basin in Siberia -- 2.1 Abstract -- 2.2 Introduction -- 2.3 Basin description, datasets, and methods of analyses -- 2.4 Streamflow regime and change -- a. Kulu (upper basin) -- b. Orotuk (upper basin) -- c. Duscania (upper basin) -- d. Sinegor'e (upper basin) -- e. Ust'-Srednekan (upper basin) -- f. Yasachnaya at Nelemnoy (unregulated tributary/middle basin) -- g. Srednekolunsk (lower basin) -- h. Kolymskoye (lower basin) -- i. Eastern tributaries -- 2.5 Conclusions -- 2.6 Acknowledgments -- 2.7 Figures -- 2.8 Tables -- 2.9 References. 3. Streamflow analysis for the Yana basin in eastern Siberia -- 3.1 Abstract -- 3.2 Introduction -- 3.3 Data and Methodology -- 3.4 Result and Discussion -- a. Basin climatology -- 3.5 Basin hydrology -- 3.6 SWE vs runoff -- 3.7 SWE vs discharge -- 3.8 Conclusion -- 3.9 Figures -- 3.10 References. 4. Is there a Link Between Changing Indian Monsoon Seasonality and the Cryosphere? -- 4.1 Abstract -- 4.2 Introduction -- 4.3 Data and Methods -- 4.3.1 Data -- 4.3.1.1 All India Rainfall Data -- 4.3.1.2 SnowWater Equivalent -- 4.3.1.3 Snow cover Extent -- 4.3.1.4 Himalaya Snow Depth Data -- 4.3.1.5 Sea Ice -- 4.3.1.6 Storm Tracks -- 4.3.1.7 CESM LENS -- 4.3.2 Analysis Methods -- 4.4 Results -- 4.4.1 Monsoon Trend and Changing Seasonality -- 4.4.2 Eurasian Snow -- 4.4.3 Future of Monsoon: Comparison with Model and Future Simulations -- 4.5 Discussion -- 4.6 Conclusion -- 4.7 Figures -- 4.8 References. 5. Conclusions -- 5.1 Summary -- 5.2 Conclusions -- 5.3 Future outlook

The atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle: A review on processes, past and future changes, and their impacts

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Atmospheric humidity, clouds, precipitation, and evapotranspiration are essential components of the Arctic climate system. During recent decades, specific humidity and precipitation have generally increased in the Arctic, but changes in evapotranspiration are poorly known. Trends in clouds vary depending on the region and season. Climate model experiments suggest that increases in precipitation are related to global warming. In turn, feedbacks associated with the increase in atmospheric moisture and decrease in sea ice and snow cover have contributed to the Arctic amplification of global warming. Climate models have captured the overall wetting trend but have limited success in reproducing regional details. For the rest of the 21st century, climate models project strong warming and increasing precipitation, but different models yield different results for changes in cloud cover. The model differences are largest in months of minimum sea ice cover. Evapotranspiration is projected to increase in winter but in summer to decrease over the oceans and increase over land. Increasing net precipitation increases river discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Over sea ice in summer, projected increase in rain and decrease in snowfall decrease the surface albedo and, hence, further amplify snow/ice surface melt. With reducing sea ice, wind forcing on the Arctic Ocean increases with impacts on ocean currents and freshwater transport out of the Arctic. Improvements in observations, process understanding, and modeling capabilities are needed to better quantify the atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle and its changes.We thank all colleagues involved in the Arctic Freshwater Synthesis (AFS) for fruitful discussions. In particular, John Walsh is acknowledged for his constructive comments on the manuscript. AFS has been sponsored by the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate and the Cryosphere project (WCRP-CliC), the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), and the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP). The work for this paper has been supported by the Academy of Finland (contracts 259537 and 283101), the UK Natural Environment Research Council (grant NE/J019585/1), the US National Science Foundation grant ARC-1023592 and the Program “Arctic” and the Basic Research Program of the Presidium Russian Academy of Sciences. NCAR is supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation. We gratefully acknowledge the project coordination and meeting support of Jenny Baeseman and Gwenaelle Hamon at the CliC International Project Office. No new data were applied in the manuscript. Data applied for Figures 2 and 3 are available from the JRA-55 archive at http://jra. kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en. html#usage

Variability and trends of Arctic water vapour from passive microwave satellites Special role of Polar lows and Atmospheric rivers

Water in the vapour phase is the most important component of the hydrological cycle. It is formed by processes of evaporation and sublimation during which a lot of energy as latent heat is absorbed from the atmosphere. Through atmospheric large and small scale circulation, this energy is transported and released elsewhere through the process of condensation. Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas (GHG) due to its abundance and its effectiveness in absorbing longwave radiation. In the light of global climate change, it is of great importance to identify trends of water vapour amounts in the atmosphere and its variability. Climate change in terms of the near-surface temperature is most pronounced in the Arctic, known as Arctic Amplification. Since most of the Arctic are either open ocean or sea-ice covered surfaces, only sparse ground-based observations, mostly confined to land areas are available. Therefore, one must resort to usage of the satellite based observations which offer a great advantage by their large spatial coverage. For water vapour assessment, passive microwave satellites are well suited due to their ability to sense water vapour under clear and cloudy sky conditions independent of sun light. A number of products of integrated water vapour (IWV) from various satellites are available. However, these are often inconsistent and prone to have biases due to various assumptions and uncertainties of a priori data included in the retrieval algorithms. According to the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, water vapour is constrained by the saturation vapour pressure which is constrained only by the temperature. Therefore, this thesis investigates the hypothesis that brightness temperatures (Tbs) from spaceborne passive microwave instruments can be used as a proxy for water vapour trends. To test this hypothesis, satellites based Tbs are compared to synthetic Tbs derived from the Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR). To enable the comparison, the ASR has been evaluated in Tb space by employing the Passive and Active Microwave TRAnsfer forward model (PAMTRA). Moreover, Tbs from sounding channels were correlated with corresponding IWV based on the weighted absolute humidity profiles peaks. The hypothesis is tested for the dry, cold and sun-absent winter season (January) and the sun-return transitional spring season (May). The results show that Tbs from frequency channels can explain trends in the corresponding IWV columns derived from ASR for regions with significant positive trends for both, Tb and IWV since high correlation coefficients, reaching 0.98, have been found. This is true for different time scales, daily, monthly and for the period of 17 years (2000-2016). The exception to this has been found for May for daily time scale for frequency channel dominated by the signal from the upper troposphere lower stratosphere (UTLS). For this combination of Tbs and IWV correlations tend to be weaker and at some locations even negative. This is consistent with theoretical calculations and observational studies which report a cooling in the UTLS region for increasing IWV. However, Tbs from the corresponding channel seem less reliable in explaining trends of the corresponding IWV derived from the ASR. This indicates the importance of other processes relevant in the UTLS region during spring. Furthermore, this thesis investigates synoptic features which are associated with water vapour transport and precipitation. Previous studies have shown that Arctic cyclone activity during winter has a large impact on the sea ice melt in the following seasons making them important players in the complex feedback mechanism of the climate change in the Arctic. However, the life cycle of the most intense of such cyclones, also known as polar lows (PL) are not yet fully understood. To analyse their dynamics, this thesis investigates different environmental conditions (and their combination) between genesis and maturity stage of January PLs. PLs with overall lower thermal instability between the surface and 500 hPa during formation stage are typically accompanied by higher and steeper lapse rates throughout the boundary layer. Therefore these PLs were fostering convective development. However, as observed for a few cases, a decreased thermal instability alongside a simultaneous decrease of convection coincides with high relative humidity (mostly above 90%). Furthermore, higher relative humidity at lower levels during genesis stage promoted stronger winds at the maturity stage. Besides water vapour turnover associated with Arctic cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs) transport major amounts of moisture from tropical and extratropical regions into the Arctic. Studies have shown that about 90% of the total mid-latitude vertically integrated water vapour transport (IVT) is related to these synoptic features. To study the influence of ARs on PL precipitation, an event with a coupled AR and PL is compared to an event which featured only a PL. The AR had a strong influence on the PL resulting in higher snow amounts on the order of ∼ 4 kg/m2 higher wind speeds and a longer distance traveled during its life cycle, compared to the PL only case

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

[Arctic] Greenland ice sheet [in “State of the Climate in 2012”]

Melting at the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet set new records for extent and melt index (i.e., the number of days on which melting occurred multiplied by the area where melting was detected) for the period 1979–2012, according to passive microwave observations (e.g., Tedesco 2007, 2009; Mote and Anderson 1995). Melt extent reached ~97% of the ice sheet surface during a rare, ice-sheet-wide event on 11–12 July (Fig. 5.13a; Nghiem et al. 2012). This was almost four times greater than the average melt extent for 1981–2010. The 2012 standardized melting index (SMI, defined as the melting index minus its average and divided by its standard deviation) was +2.4, almost twice the previous record of about +1.3 set in 2010

Laboratory for Atmospheres 2010 Technical Highlights

The 2010 Technical Highlights describes the efforts of all members of the Laboratory for Atmospheres. Their dedication to advancing Earth Science through conducting research, developing and running models, designing instruments, managing projects, running field campaigns, and numerous other activities, is highlighted in this report