17,009 research outputs found
Big data analytics:Computational intelligence techniques and application areas
Big Data has significant impact in developing functional smart cities and supporting modern societies. In this paper, we investigate the importance of Big Data in modern life and economy, and discuss challenges arising from Big Data utilization. Different computational intelligence techniques have been considered as tools for Big Data analytics. We also explore the powerful combination of Big Data and Computational Intelligence (CI) and identify a number of areas, where novel applications in real world smart city problems can be developed by utilizing these powerful tools and techniques. We present a case study for intelligent transportation in the context of a smart city, and a novel data modelling methodology based on a biologically inspired universal generative modelling approach called Hierarchical Spatial-Temporal State Machine (HSTSM). We further discuss various implications of policy, protection, valuation and commercialization related to Big Data, its applications and deployment
A Belief Rule Based Expert System for Datacenter PUE Prediction under Uncertainty
A rapidly emerging trend in the IT landscape is the uptake of large-scale datacenters moving storage and data processing to providers located far away from the end-users or locally deployed servers. For these large-scale datacenters, power efficiency is a key metric, with the PUE (Power Usage Effectiveness) and DCiE (Data Centre infrastructure Efficiency) being important examples. This article proposes a belief rule based expert system to predict datacenter PUE under uncertainty. The system has been evaluated using real-world data from a data center in the UK. The results would help planning construction of new datacenters and the redesign of existing datacenters making them more power efficient leading to a more sustainable computing environment. In addition, an optimal learning model for the BRBES demonstrated which has been compared with ANN and Genetic Algorithm; and the results are promising
Decision support systems for large dam planning and operation in Africa
Decision support systems/ Dams/ Planning/ Operations/ Social impact/ Environmental effects
Multi-agent system for flood forecasting in Tropical River Basin
It is well known, the problems related to the generation of floods, their control, and management,
have been treated with traditional hydrologic modeling tools focused on the study and
the analysis of the precipitation-runoff relationship, a physical process which is driven by the
hydrological cycle and the climate regime and that is directly proportional to the generation
of floodwaters. Within the hydrological discipline, they classify these traditional modeling
tools according to three principal groups, being the first group defined as trial-and-error models
(e.g., "black-models"), the second group are the conceptual models, which are categorized
in three main sub-groups as "lumped", "semi-lumped" and "semi-distributed", according to
the special distribution, and finally, models that are based on physical processes, known as
"white-box models" are the so-called "distributed-models". On the other hand, in engineering
applications, there are two types of models used in streamflow forecasting, and which are
classified concerning the type of measurements and variables required as "physically based
models", as well as "data-driven models".
The Physically oriented prototypes present an in-depth account of the dynamics related
to the physical aspects that occur internally among the different systems of a given hydrographic
basin. However, aside from being laborious to implement, they rely thoroughly
on mathematical algorithms, and an understanding of these interactions requires the abstraction
of mathematical concepts and the conceptualization of the physical processes that
are intertwined among these systems. Besides, models determined by data necessitates an
a-priori understanding of the physical laws controlling the process within the system, and
they are bound to mathematical formulations, which require a lot of numeric information
for field adjustments. Therefore, these models are remarkably different from each other
because of their needs for data, and their interpretation of physical phenomena. Although
there is considerable progress in hydrologic modeling for flood forecasting, several significant
setbacks remain unresolved, given the stochastic nature of the hydrological phenomena, is
the challenge to implement user-friendly, re-usable, robust, and reliable forecasting systems,
the amount of uncertainty they must deal with when trying to solve the flood forecasting
problem. However, in the past decades, with the growing environment and development of
the artificial intelligence (AI) field, some researchers have seldomly attempted to deal with
the stochastic nature of hydrologic events with the application of some of these techniques.
Given the setbacks to hydrologic flood forecasting previously described this thesis research
aims to integrate the physics-based hydrologic, hydraulic, and data-driven models under the
paradigm of Multi-agent Systems for flood forecasting by designing and developing a multi-agent system (MAS) framework for flood forecasting events within the scope of tropical
watersheds.
With the emergence of the agent technologies, the "agent-based modeling" and "multiagent
systems" simulation methods have provided applications for some areas of hydro base
management like flood protection, planning, control, management, mitigation, and forecasting
to combat the shocks produced by floods on society; however, all these focused on
evacuation drills, and the latter not aimed at the tropical river basin, whose hydrological
regime is extremely unique.
In this catchment modeling environment approach, it was applied the multi-agent systems
approach as a surrogate of the conventional hydrologic model to build a system that operates
at the catchment level displayed with hydrometric stations, that use the data from hydrometric
sensors networks (e.g., rainfall, river stage, river flow) captured, stored and administered
by an organization of interacting agents whose main aim is to perform flow forecasting and
awareness, and in so doing enhance the policy-making process at the watershed level.
Section one of this document surveys the status of the current research in hydrologic
modeling for the flood forecasting task. It is a journey through the background of related
concerns to the hydrological process, flood ontologies, management, and forecasting. The
section covers, to a certain extent, the techniques, methods, and theoretical aspects and
methods of hydrological modeling and their types, from the conventional models to the
present-day artificial intelligence prototypes, making special emphasis on the multi-agent
systems, as most recent modeling methodology in the hydrological sciences. However, it is
also underlined here that the section does not contribute to an all-inclusive revision, rather
its purpose is to serve as a framework for this sort of work and a path to underline the
significant aspects of the works.
In section two of the document, it is detailed the conceptual framework for the suggested
Multiagent system in support of flood forecasting. To accomplish this task, several works
need to be carried out such as the sketching and implementation of the system’s framework
with the (Belief-Desire-Intention model) architecture for flood forecasting events within the
concept of the tropical river basin. Contributions of this proposed architecture are the
replacement of the conventional hydrologic modeling with the use of multi-agent systems,
which makes it quick for hydrometric time-series data administration and modeling of the
precipitation-runoff process which conveys to flood in a river course. Another advantage is
the user-friendly environment provided by the proposed multi-agent system platform graphical
interface, the real-time generation of graphs, charts, and monitors with the information
on the immediate event taking place in the catchment, which makes it easy for the viewer
with some or no background in data analysis and their interpretation to get a visual idea of
the information at hand regarding the flood awareness.
The required agents developed in this multi-agent system modeling framework for flood
forecasting have been trained, tested, and validated under a series of experimental tasks,
using the hydrometric series information of rainfall, river stage, and streamflow data collected
by the hydrometric sensor agents from the hydrometric sensors.Como se sabe, los problemas relacionados con la generación de inundaciones, su control y
manejo, han sido tratados con herramientas tradicionales de modelado hidrológico enfocados
al estudio y análisis de la relación precipitación-escorrentÃa, proceso fÃsico que es impulsado
por el ciclo hidrológico y el régimen climático y este esta directamente proporcional a la
generación de crecidas. Dentro de la disciplina hidrológica, clasifican estas herramientas
de modelado tradicionales en tres grupos principales, siendo el primer grupo el de modelos
empÃricos (modelos de caja negra), modelos conceptuales (o agrupados, semi-agrupados o
semi-distribuidos) dependiendo de la distribución espacial y, por último, los basados en la
fÃsica, modelos de proceso (o "modelos de caja blanca", y/o distribuidos). En este sentido,
clasifican las aplicaciones de predicción de caudal fluvial en la ingenierÃa de recursos hÃdricos
en dos tipos con respecto a los valores y parámetros que requieren en: modelos de procesos
basados en la fÃsica y la categorÃa de modelos impulsados por datos.
Los modelos basados en la fÃsica proporcionan una descripción detallada de la dinámica
relacionada con los aspectos fÃsicos que ocurren internamente entre los diferentes sistemas de
una cuenca hidrográfica determinada. Sin embargo, aparte de ser complejos de implementar,
se basan completamente en algoritmos matemáticos, y la comprensión de estas interacciones
requiere la abstracción de conceptos matemáticos y la conceptualización de los procesos
fÃsicos que se entrelazan entre estos sistemas. Además, los modelos impulsados por datos no
requieren conocimiento de los procesos fÃsicos que gobiernan, sino que se basan únicamente
en ecuaciones empÃricas que necesitan una gran cantidad de datos y requieren calibración
de los datos en el sitio. Los dos modelos difieren significativamente debido a sus requisitos
de datos y de cómo expresan los fenómenos fÃsicos. La elaboración de modelos hidrológicos
para el pronóstico de inundaciones ha dado grandes pasos, pero siguen sin resolverse algunos
contratiempos importantes, dada la naturaleza estocástica de los fenómenos hidrológicos, es
el desafÃo de implementar sistemas de pronóstico fáciles de usar, reutilizables, robustos y
confiables, la cantidad de incertidumbre que deben afrontar al intentar resolver el problema
de la predicción de inundaciones. Sin embargo, en las últimas décadas, con el entorno
creciente y el desarrollo del campo de la inteligencia artificial (IA), algunos investigadores
rara vez han intentado abordar la naturaleza estocástica de los eventos hidrológicos con la
aplicación de algunas de estas técnicas.
Dados los contratiempos en el pronóstico de inundaciones hidrológicas descritos anteriormente,
esta investigación de tesis tiene como objetivo integrar los modelos hidrológicos,
basados en la fÃsica, hidráulicos e impulsados por datos bajo el paradigma de Sistemas de múltiples agentes para el pronóstico de inundaciones por medio del bosquejo y desarrollo
del marco de trabajo del sistema multi-agente (MAS) para los eventos de predicción de
inundaciones en el contexto de cuenca hidrográfica tropical.
Con la aparición de las tecnologÃas de agentes, se han emprendido algunos enfoques
de simulación recientes en la investigación hidrológica con modelos basados en agentes y
sistema multi-agente, principalmente en alerta por inundaciones, seguridad y planificación
de inundaciones, control y gestión de inundaciones y pronóstico de inundaciones, todos estos
enfocado a simulacros de evacuación, y este último no dirigido a la cuenca tropical, cuyo
régimen hidrológico es extremadamente único.
En este enfoque de entorno de modelado de cuencas, se aplican los enfoques de sistemas
multi-agente como un sustituto del modelado hidrológico convencional para construir un
sistema que opera a nivel de cuenca con estaciones hidrométricas desplegadas, que utilizan
los datos de redes de sensores hidrométricos (por ejemplo, lluvia , nivel del rÃo, caudal del
rÃo) capturado, almacenado y administrado por una organización de agentes interactuantes
cuyo objetivo principal es realizar pronósticos de caudal y concientización para mejorar las
capacidades de soporte en la formulación de polÃticas a nivel de cuenca hidrográfica.
La primera sección de este documento analiza el estado del arte sobre la investigación actual
en modelos hidrológicos para la tarea de pronóstico de inundaciones. Es un viaje a través
de los antecedentes preocupantes relacionadas con el proceso hidrológico, las ontologÃas de
inundaciones, la gestión y la predicción. El apartado abarca, en cierta medida, las técnicas,
métodos y aspectos teóricos y métodos del modelado hidrológico y sus tipologÃas, desde
los modelos convencionales hasta los prototipos de inteligencia artificial actuales, haciendo
hincapié en los sistemas multi-agente, como un enfoque de simulación reciente en la investigación
hidrológica. Sin embargo, se destaca que esta sección no contribuye a una revisión
integral, sino que su propósito es servir de marco para este tipo de trabajos y una guÃa para
subrayar los aspectos significativos de los trabajos.
En la sección dos del documento, se detalla el marco de trabajo propuesto para el sistema
multi-agente para el pronóstico de inundaciones. Los trabajos realizados comprendieron el
diseño y desarrollo del marco de trabajo del sistema multi-agente con la arquitectura (modelo
Creencia-Deseo-Intención) para la predicción de eventos de crecidas dentro del concepto
de cuenca hidrográfica tropical. Las contribuciones de esta arquitectura propuesta son el
reemplazo del modelado hidrológico convencional con el uso de sistemas multi-agente, lo
que agiliza la administración de las series de tiempo de datos hidrométricos y el modelado
del proceso de precipitación-escorrentÃa que conduce a la inundación en el curso de un rÃo.
Otra ventaja es el entorno amigable proporcionado por la interfaz gráfica de la plataforma del
sistema multi-agente propuesto, la generación en tiempo real de gráficos, cuadros y monitores
con la información sobre el evento inmediato que tiene lugar en la cuenca, lo que lo hace
fácil para el espectador con algo o sin experiencia en análisis de datos y su interpretación
para tener una idea visual de la información disponible con respecto a la cognición de las
inundaciones.
Los agentes necesarios desarrollados en este marco de modelado de sistemas multi-agente
para el pronóstico de inundaciones han sido entrenados, probados y validados en una serie de tareas experimentales, utilizando la información de la serie hidrométrica de datos de lluvia,
nivel del rÃo y flujo del curso de agua recolectados por los agentes sensores hidrométricos de
los sensores hidrométricos de campo.Programa de Doctorado en Ciencia y TecnologÃa Informática por la Universidad Carlos III de MadridPresidente: MarÃa Araceli Sanchis de Miguel.- Secretario: Juan Gómez Romero.- Vocal: Juan Carlos Corrale
Policy Analysis for Natural Hazards: Some Cautionary Lessons From Environmental Policy Analysis
How should agencies and legislatures evaluate possible policies to mitigate the impacts of earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and other natural hazards? In particular, should governmental bodies adopt the sorts of policy-analytic and risk assessment techniques that are widely used in the area of environmental hazards (chemical toxins and radiation)? Environmental hazards policy analysis regularly employs proxy tests, in particular tests of technological feasibility, rather than focusing on a policy\u27s impact on well-being. When human welfare does enter the analysis, particular aspects of well-being, such as health and safety, are often given priority over others. Individual risk tests and other features of environmental policy analysis sometimes make policy choice fairly insensitive to the size of the exposed population. Seemingly arbitrary numerical cutoffs, such as the one-in-one million incremental risk level, help structure policy evaluation. Risk assessment techniques are often deterministic rather than probabilistic, and in estimating point values often rely on conservative rather than central-tendency estimates. The Article argues that these sorts of features of environmental policy analysis may be justifiable, but only on institutional grounds-if they sufficiently reduce decision costs or bureaucratic error or shirking-and should not be reflexively adopted by natural hazards policymakers. Absent persuasive. institutional justification, natural hazards policy analysis should be welfare-focused, multidimensional, and sensitive to population size, and natural hazards risk assessment techniques should provide information suitable for policy-analytic techniques of this sort
Policy Analysis for Natural Hazards: Some Cautionary Lessons From Environmental Policy Analysis
How should agencies and legislatures evaluate possible policies to mitigate the impacts of earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and other natural hazards? In particular, should governmental bodies adopt the sorts of policy-analytic and risk assessment techniques that are widely used in the area of environmental hazards (chemical toxins and radiation)? Environmental hazards policy analysis regularly employs proxy tests, in particular tests of technological feasibility, rather than focusing on a policy\u27s impact on well-being. When human welfare does enter the analysis, particular aspects of well-being, such as health and safety, are often given priority over others. Individual risk tests and other features of environmental policy analysis sometimes make policy choice fairly insensitive to the size of the exposed population. Seemingly arbitrary numerical cutoffs, such as the one-in-one million incremental risk level, help structure policy evaluation. Risk assessment techniques are often deterministic rather than probabilistic, and in estimating point values often rely on conservative rather than central-tendency estimates. The Article argues that these sorts of features of environmental policy analysis may be justifiable, but only on institutional grounds-if they sufficiently reduce decision costs or bureaucratic error or shirking-and should not be reflexively adopted by natural hazards policymakers. Absent persuasive. institutional justification, natural hazards policy analysis should be welfare-focused, multidimensional, and sensitive to population size, and natural hazards risk assessment techniques should provide information suitable for policy-analytic techniques of this sort
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