Market linkages, variance spillovers and correlation stability: empirical evidences of financial contagion

We propose a simultaneous equation system with GARCH errors to model the contemporaneous relations among Asian and American stock markets. On the estimated residuals, we evaluate the correlation matrix over rolling windows and introduce a correlation matrix distance, which allows both a graphical analysis and the development of a statistical test of correlation movements. Furthermore, we introduce a methodology that can be used for identifying turmoil periods on a data-driven basis. We employ the previous results in the analysis of the contagion issue between Asian and American stock markets. Our results shows some evidence of contagion and the proposed statistics identifies, on a data-driven basis, turmoil periods consistent with the ones currently assumed in the literature.Financial market contagion, Market linkages, Variance spillovers, Dynamic correlations, Rolling correlations, Transformed correlations

Will the US Economy Recover in 2010? A Minimal Spanning Tree Study

We calculated the cross correlations between the half-hourly times series of the ten Dow Jones US economic sectors over the period February 2000 to August 2008, the two-year intervals 2002--2003, 2004--2005, 2008--2009, and also over 11 segments within the present financial crisis, to construct minimal spanning trees (MSTs) of the US economy at the sector level. In all MSTs, a core-fringe structure is found, with consumer goods, consumer services, and the industrials consistently making up the core, and basic materials, oil and gas, healthcare, telecommunications, and utilities residing predominantly on the fringe. More importantly, we find that the MSTs can be classified into two distinct, statistically robust, topologies: (i) star-like, with the industrials at the center, associated with low-volatility economic growth; and (ii) chain-like, associated with high-volatility economic crisis. Finally, we present statistical evidence, based on the emergence of a star-like MST in Sep 2009, and the MST staying robustly star-like throughout the Greek Debt Crisis, that the US economy is on track to a recovery.Comment: elsarticle class, includes amsmath.sty, graphicx.sty and url.sty. 68 pages, 16 figures, 8 tables. Abridged version of the manuscript presented at the Econophysics Colloquim 2010, incorporating reviewer comment

Topological structures in the equities market network

We present a new method for articulating scale-dependent topological descriptions of the network structure inherent in many complex systems. The technique is based on "Partition Decoupled Null Models,'' a new class of null models that incorporate the interaction of clustered partitions into a random model and generalize the Gaussian ensemble. As an application we analyze a correlation matrix derived from four years of close prices of equities in the NYSE and NASDAQ. In this example we expose (1) a natural structure composed of two interacting partitions of the market that both agrees with and generalizes standard notions of scale (eg., sector and industry) and (2) structure in the first partition that is a topological manifestation of a well-known pattern of capital flow called "sector rotation.'' Our approach gives rise to a natural form of multiresolution analysis of the underlying time series that naturally decomposes the basic data in terms of the effects of the different scales at which it clusters. The equities market is a prototypical complex system and we expect that our approach will be of use in understanding a broad class of complex systems in which correlation structures are resident.Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, 3 table