We calculated the cross correlations between the half-hourly times series of
the ten Dow Jones US economic sectors over the period February 2000 to August
2008, the two-year intervals 2002--2003, 2004--2005, 2008--2009, and also over
11 segments within the present financial crisis, to construct minimal spanning
trees (MSTs) of the US economy at the sector level. In all MSTs, a core-fringe
structure is found, with consumer goods, consumer services, and the industrials
consistently making up the core, and basic materials, oil and gas, healthcare,
telecommunications, and utilities residing predominantly on the fringe. More
importantly, we find that the MSTs can be classified into two distinct,
statistically robust, topologies: (i) star-like, with the industrials at the
center, associated with low-volatility economic growth; and (ii) chain-like,
associated with high-volatility economic crisis. Finally, we present
statistical evidence, based on the emergence of a star-like MST in Sep 2009,
and the MST staying robustly star-like throughout the Greek Debt Crisis, that
the US economy is on track to a recovery.Comment: elsarticle class, includes amsmath.sty, graphicx.sty and url.sty. 68
pages, 16 figures, 8 tables. Abridged version of the manuscript presented at
the Econophysics Colloquim 2010, incorporating reviewer comment
