Applications of sensitivity analysis for probit stochastic network equilibrium

Network equilibrium models are widely used by traffic practitioners to aid them in making decisions concerning the operation and management of traffic networks. The common practice is to test a prescribed range of hypothetical changes or policy measures through adjustments to the input data, namely the trip demands, the arc performance (travel time) functions, and policy variables such as tolls or signal timings. Relatively little use is, however, made of the full implicit relationship between model inputs and outputs inherent in these models. By exploiting the representation of such models as an equivalent optimisation problem, classical results on the sensitivity analysis of non-linear programs may be applied, to produce linear relationships between input data perturbations and model outputs. We specifically focus on recent results relating to the probit Stochastic User Equilibrium (PSUE) model, which has the advantage of greater behavioural realism and flexibility relative to the conventional Wardrop user equilibrium and logit SUE models. The paper goes on to explore four applications of these sensitivity expressions in gaining insight into the operation of road traffic networks. These applications are namely: identification of sensitive, ‘critical’ parameters; computation of approximate, re-equilibrated solutions following a change (post-optimisation); robustness analysis of model forecasts to input data errors, in the form of confidence interval estimation; and the solution of problems of the bi-level, optimal network design variety. Finally, numerical experiments applying these methods are reported

Solving the bicriteria traffic equilibrium problem with variable demand and nonlinear path costs

a b s t r a c t In this paper, we present an algorithm for solving the bicriteria traffic equilibrium problem with variable demand and nonlinear path costs. The path cost function considered is comprised of two attributes, travel time and toll, that are combined into a nonlinear generalized cost. Travel demand is determined endogenously according to a travel disutility function. Travelers choose routes with the minimum overall generalized costs. The algorithm involves two components: a bicriteria shortest path routine to implicitly generate the set of non-dominated paths and a projection and contraction method to solve the nonlinear complementarity problem (NCP) describing the traffic equilibrium problem. Numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the algorithm to this class of traffic equilibrium problems. Published by Elsevier Inc

Models and Algorithms for Addressing Travel Time Variability: Applications from Optimal Path Finding and Traffic Equilibrium Problems

An optimal path finding problem and a traffic equilibrium problem are two important, fundamental, and interrelated topics in the transportation research field. Under travel time variability, the road networks are considered as stochastic, where the link travel times are treated as random variables with known probability density functions. By considering the effect of travel time variability and corresponding risk-taking behavior of the travelers, this dissertation proposes models and algorithms for addressing travel time variability with applications from optimal path finding and traffic equilibrium problems. Specifically, two new optimal path finding models and two novel traffic equilibrium models are proposed in stochastic networks. To adaptively determine a reliable path with the minimum travel time budget required to meet the user-specified reliability threshold α, an adaptive α-reliable path finding model is proposed. It is formulated as a chance constrained model under a dynamic programming framework. Then, a discrete-time algorithm is developed based on the properties of the proposed model. In addition to accounting for the reliability aspect of travel time variability, the α-reliable mean-excess path finding model further concerns the unreliability aspect of the late trips beyond the travel time budget. It is formulated as a stochastic mixed-integer nonlinear program. To solve this difficult problem, a practical double relaxation procedure is developed. By recognizing travelers are not only interested in saving their travel time but also in reducing their risk of being late, a α-reliable mean-excess traffic equilibrium (METE) model is proposed. Furthermore, a stochastic α-reliable mean-excess traffic equilibrium (SMETE) model is developed by incorporating the travelers’ perception error, where the travelers’ route choice decisions are determined by the perceived distribution of the stochastic travel time. Both models explicitly examine the effects of both reliability and unreliability aspects of travel time variability in a network equilibrium framework. They are both formulated as a variational inequality (VI) problem and solved by a route-based algorithm based on the modified alternating direction method. In conclusion, this study explores the effects of the various aspects (reliability and unreliability) of travel time variability on travelers’ route choice decision process by considering their risk preferences. The proposed models provide novel views of the optimal path finding problem and the traffic equilibrium problem under an uncertain environment, and the proposed solution algorithms enable potential applicability for solving practical problems

Probit-based stochastic user equilibrium problems and their applications in congestion pricing

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH