Peak shaving through battery storage for low-voltage enterprises with peak demand pricing

The renewable energy transition has introduced new electricity tariff structures. With the increased penetration of photovoltaic and wind power systems, users are being charged more for their peak demand. Consequently, peak shaving has gained attention in recent years. In this paper, we investigated the potential of peak shaving through battery storage. The analyzed system comprises a battery, a load and the grid but no renewable energy sources. The study is based on 40 load profiles of low-voltage users, located in Belgium, for the period 1 January 2014, 00:00-31 December 2016, 23:45, at 15 min resolution, with peak demand pricing. For each user, we studied the peak load reduction achievable by batteries of varying energy capacities (kWh), ranging from 0.1 to 10 times the mean power (kW). The results show that for 75% of the users, the peak reduction stays below 44% when the battery capacity is 10 times the mean power. Furthermore, for 75% of the users the battery remains idle for at least 80% of the time; consequently, the battery could possibly provide other services as well if the peak occurrence is sufficiently predictable. From an economic perspective, peak shaving looks interesting for capacity invoiced end users in Belgium, under the current battery capex and electricity prices (without Time-of-Use (ToU) dependency)

Applications of Probabilistic Forecasting in Smart Grids : A Review

This paper reviews the recent studies and works dealing with probabilistic forecasting models and their applications in smart grids. According to these studies, this paper tries to introduce a roadmap towards decision-making under uncertainty in a smart grid environment. In this way, it firstly discusses the common methods employed to predict the distribution of variables. Then, it reviews how the recent literature used these forecasting methods and for which uncertain parameters they wanted to obtain distributions. Unlike the existing reviews, this paper assesses several uncertain parameters for which probabilistic forecasting models have been developed. In the next stage, this paper provides an overview related to scenario generation of uncertain parameters using their distributions and how these scenarios are adopted for optimal decision-making. In this regard, this paper discusses three types of optimization problems aiming to capture uncertainties and reviews the related papers. Finally, we propose some future applications of probabilistic forecasting based on the flexibility challenges of power systems in the near future.© 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Technical and economic appraisal for harnessing a proposed hybrid energy system nexus for power generation and CO2 mitigation in Cross River State, Nigeria

By creating hybrid energy systems and obtaining a framework that equally satisfies a continuous operation for renewable energy technology, this study presents renewable and sustainable energy options as an integral method to energy transitioning from non-renewable to renewable energy utilization in Cross River State, Nigeria. For a needed load of 2424.25 kWh/day in Cross River State, this study focused on proposing a designed hybrid energy system (HES) nexus, mitigating CO2, and appraisal of the technical and economic viability. To accomplish this, HOMER software was utilized in simulating the ideal components that suggested a HES nexus. The software enabled the selection of the optimal HES using various renewable energy sources since it predicts future electrical demand, wind speed, solar irradiation, and temperature. Economic results obtained showed that the proposed HES's Levelized cost of energy (LCOE), net present cost (NPC), and operating cost (OC) were $0.89/kWh,$10,138,702 and $134,084.37 respectively. Further technical appraisal showed that the renewable energy conversion systems (RECs) make up 78.74% of the proposed HES. The photovoltaic (PV) arrays were primarily responsible for the hybrid energy system's electricity output. The annual electrical energy output was 1,984,111kWh (89.4%), produced by the PV arrays. The generic fuel cell produced the least, at 29,957kWh/year, accounting for just 1.35% of the total electricity produced. However, the wind power plant produced 205,365kWh/year annually. Furthermore, comparing the HES with diesel-powered generators, the system achieves a net-zero carbon emission status. Therefore, it has proven to be the most reliable energy as it will solve the problem of energy demand and reduces carbon emissions in Cross River State, Nigeri

IMPACT OF DIFFERENT LOAD PROFILES ON SIZING AND PERFORMANCE OF A MICRO-HYDROKINETIC-BATTERY BASED HYBRID SYSTEM

Conference ProceedingsHydrokinetic hybrid systems are gaining more interest since hydrokinetic technology has proved to offer a cost-effective electrification solution. Very few research studies on sizing and optimization of micro-hydrokinetic-battery (MHK-B) based hybrid systems have been done. However, the authors did not explore the impact of different load profiles on optimal sizing and performance of the MHK-B hybrid system. In this study, the impact brought by different load profiles such as residential, commercial and industrial sectors on sizing and operation of a river based MHK-B hybrid system is investigated using Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable (HOMER) software. HOMER Pro version 3.6.1 has been selected since it is equipped with hydrokinetic turbine module. The flowing water resource data obtained from a typical river of South Africa has been used as an input. Sample of load profile curves for residential, commercial, industrial have been used to estimate the daily load demands. The optimum configuration results indicated that for the same daily energy consumption, the type of a load profile affects the battery storage capacity, hydrokinetic turbine size, inverter and rectifier operational hours as well as the annual excess energy for the MHK-B hybrid system

Microgrids/Nanogrids Implementation, Planning, and Operation

Today’s power system is facing the challenges of increasing global demand for electricity, high-reliability requirements, the need for clean energy and environmental protection, and planning restrictions. To move towards a green and smart electric power system, centralized generation facilities are being transformed into smaller and more distributed ones. As a result, the microgrid concept is emerging, where a microgrid can operate as a single controllable system and can be viewed as a group of distributed energy loads and resources, which can include many renewable energy sources and energy storage systems. The energy management of a large number of distributed energy resources is required for the reliable operation of the microgrid. Microgrids and nanogrids can allow for better integration of distributed energy storage capacity and renewable energy sources into the power grid, therefore increasing its efficiency and resilience to natural and technical disruptive events. Microgrid networking with optimal energy management will lead to a sort of smart grid with numerous benefits such as reduced cost and enhanced reliability and resiliency. They include small-scale renewable energy harvesters and fixed energy storage units typically installed in commercial and residential buildings. In this challenging context, the objective of this book is to address and disseminate state-of-the-art research and development results on the implementation, planning, and operation of microgrids/nanogrids, where energy management is one of the core issues

WIND POWER PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION AND UNCERTAINTY MODELING FOR OPERATION OF LARGE-SCALE POWER SYSTEMS

Over the last decade, large scale renewable energy generation has been integrated into power systems. Wind power generation is known as a widely-used and interesting kind of renewable energy generation around the world. However, the high uncertainty of wind power generation leads to some unavoidable error in wind power prediction process; consequently, it makes the optimal operation and control of power systems very challenging. Since wind power prediction error cannot be entirely removed, providing accurate models for wind power uncertainty can assist power system operators in mitigating its negative effects on decision making conditions. There are efficient ways to show the wind power uncertainty, (i) accurate wind power prediction error probability distribution modeling in the form of probability density functions and (ii) construction of reliable and sharp prediction intervals. Construction of accurate probability density functions and high-quality prediction intervals are difficult because wind power time series is non-stationary. In addition, incorporation of probability density functions and prediction intervals in power systems’ decision-making problems are challenging. In this thesis, the goal is to propose comprehensive frameworks for wind power uncertainty modeling in the form of both probability density functions and prediction intervals and incorporation of each model in power systems’ decision-making problems such as look-ahead economic dispatch. To accurately quantify the uncertainty of wind power generation, different approaches are studied, and a comprehensive framework is then proposed to construct the probability density functions using a mixture of beta kernels. The framework outperforms benchmarks because it can validly capture the actual features of wind power probability density function such as main mass, boundaries, high skewness, and fat tails from the wind power sample moments. Also, using the proposed framework, a generic convex model is proposed for chance-constrained look-ahead economic dispatch problems. It allows power system operators to use piecewise linearization techniques to convert the problem to a mixed-integer linear programming problem. Numerical simulations using IEEE 118-bus test system show that compared with widely used sequential linear programming approaches, the proposed mixed-integer linear programming model leads to less system’s total cost. A framework based on the concept of bandwidth selection for a new and flexible kernel density estimator is proposed for construction of prediction intervals. Unlike previous related works, the proposed framework uses neither a cost function-based optimization problem nor point prediction results; rather, a diffusion-based kernel density estimator is utilized to achieve high-quality prediction intervals for non-stationary wind power time series. The proposed prediction interval construction framework is also founded based on a parallel computing procedure to promote the computational efficiency for practical applications in power systems. Simulation results demonstrate the high performance of the proposed framework compared to well-known conventional benchmarks such as bootstrap extreme learning machine, lower upper bound estimation, quantile regression, auto-regressive integrated moving average, and linear programming-based quantile regression. Finally, a new adjustable robust optimization approach is used to incorporate the constructed prediction intervals with the proposed fuzzy and adaptive diffusion estimator-based prediction interval construction framework. However, to accurately model the correlation and dependence structure of wind farms, especially in high dimensional cases, C-Vine copula models are used for prediction interval construction. The simulation results show that uncertainty modeling using C-Vine copula can lead the system operators to get more realistic sense about the level of overall uncertainty in the system, and consequently more conservative results for energy and reserve scheduling are obtained

Forecasting Models for Integration of Large-Scale Renewable Energy Generation to Electric Power Systems

Amid growing concerns about climate change and non-renewable energy sources deple¬tion, vari¬able renewable energy sources (VRESs) are considered as a feasible substitute for conventional environment-polluting fossil fuel-based power plants. Furthermore, the transition towards clean power systems requires additional transmission capacity. Dynamic thermal line rating (DTLR) is being considered as a potential solution to enhance the current transmission line capacity and omit/postpone transmission system expansion planning, while DTLR is highly dependent on weather variations. With increasing the accommodation of VRESs and application of DTLR, fluctuations and variations thereof impose severe and unprecedented challenges on power systems operation. Therefore, short-term forecasting of large-scale VERSs and DTLR play a crucial role in the electric power system op¬eration problems. To this end, this thesis devotes on developing forecasting models for two large-scale VRESs types (i.e., wind and tidal) and DTLR. Deterministic prediction can be employed for a variety of power system operation problems solved by deterministic optimization. Also, the outcomes of deterministic prediction can be employed for conditional probabilistic prediction, which can be used for modeling uncertainty, used in power system operation problems with robust optimization, chance-constrained optimization, etc. By virtue of the importance of deterministic prediction, deterministic prediction models are developed. Prevalently, time-frequency decomposition approaches are adapted to decompose the wind power time series (TS) into several less non-stationary and non-linear components, which can be predicted more precisely. However, in addition to non-stationarity and nonlinearity, wind power TS demonstrates chaotic characteristics, which reduces the predictability of the wind power TS. In this regard, a wind power generation prediction model based on considering the chaosity of the wind power generation TS is addressed. The model consists of a novel TS decomposition approach, named multi-scale singular spectrum analysis (MSSSA), and least squares support vector machines (LSSVMs). Furthermore, deterministic tidal TS prediction model is developed. In the proposed prediction model, a variant of empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which alleviates the issues associated with EMD. To further improve the prediction accuracy, the impact of different components of wind power TS with different frequencies (scales) in the spatiotemporal modeling of the wind farm is assessed. Consequently, a multiscale spatiotemporal wind power prediction is developed, using information theory-based feature selection, wavelet decomposition, and LSSVM. Power system operation problems with robust optimization and interval optimization require prediction intervals (PIs) to model the uncertainty of renewables. The advanced PI models are mainly based on non-differentiable and non-convex cost functions, which make the use of heuristic optimization for tuning a large number of unknown parameters of the prediction models inevitable. However, heuristic optimization suffers from several issues (e.g., being trapped in local optima, irreproducibility, etc.). To this end, a new wind power PI (WPPI) model, based on a bi-level optimization structure, is put forward. In the proposed WPPI, the main unknown parameters of the prediction model are globally tuned based on optimizing a convex and differentiable cost function. In line with solving the non-differentiability and non-convexity of PI formulation, an asymmetrically adaptive quantile regression (AAQR) which benefits from a linear formulation is proposed for tidal uncertainty modeling. In the prevalent QR-based PI models, for a specified reliability level, the probabilities of the quantiles are selected symmetrically with respect the median probability. However, it is found that asymmetrical and adaptive selection of quantiles with respect to median can provide more efficient PIs. To make the formulation of AAQR linear, extreme learning machine (ELM) is adapted as the prediction engine. Prevalently, the parameters of activation functions in ELM are selected randomly; while different sets of random values might result in dissimilar prediction accuracy. To this end, a heuristic optimization is devised to tune the parameters of the activation functions. Also, to enhance the accuracy of probabilistic DTLR, consideration of latent variables in DTLR prediction is assessed. It is observed that convective cooling rate can provide informative features for DTLR prediction. Also, to address the high dimensional feature space in DTLR, a DTR prediction based on deep learning and consideration of latent variables is put forward. Numerical results of this thesis are provided based on realistic data. The simulations confirm the superiority of the proposed models in comparison to traditional benchmark models, as well as the state-of-the-art models