Pulsar State Switching from Markov Transitions and Stochastic Resonance

Markov processes are shown to be consistent with metastable states seen in pulsar phenomena, including intensity nulling, pulse-shape mode changes, subpulse drift rates, spindown rates, and X-ray emission, based on the typically broad and monotonic distributions of state lifetimes. Markovianity implies a nonlinear magnetospheric system in which state changes occur stochastically, corresponding to transitions between local minima in an effective potential. State durations (though not transition times) are thus largely decoupled from the characteristic time scales of various magnetospheric processes. Dyadic states are common but some objects show at least four states with some transitions forbidden. Another case is the long-term intermittent pulsar B1931+24 that has binary radio-emission and torque states with wide, but non-monotonic duration distributions. It also shows a quasi-period of $38\pm5$ days in a 13-yr time sequence, suggesting stochastic resonance in a Markov system with a forcing function that could be strictly periodic or quasi-periodic. Nonlinear phenomena are associated with time-dependent activity in the acceleration region near each magnetic polar cap. The polar-cap diode is altered by feedback from the outer magnetosphere and by return currents from an equatorial disk that may also cause the neutron star to episodically charge and discharge. Orbital perturbations in the disk provide a natural periodicity for the forcing function in the stochastic resonance interpretation of B1931+24. Disk dynamics may introduce additional time scales in observed phenomena. Future work can test the Markov interpretation, identify which pulsar types have a propensity for state changes, and clarify the role of selection effects.Comment: 25 pages, 6 figures, submitted to the Astrophysical Journa

Optical computing by injection-locked lasers

A programmable optical computer has remained an elusive concept. To construct a practical computing primitive equivalent to an electronic Boolean logic, one should find a nonlinear phenomenon that overcomes weaknesses present in many optical processing schemes. Ideally, the nonlinearity should provide a functionally complete set of logic operations, enable ultrafast all-optical programmability, and allow cascaded operations without a change in the operating wavelength or in the signal encoding format. Here we demonstrate a programmable logic gate using an injection-locked Vertical-Cavity Surface-Emitting Laser (VCSEL). The gate program is switched between the AND and the OR operations at the rate of 1 GHz with Bit Error Ratio (BER) of 10e-6 without changes in the wavelength or in the signal encoding format. The scheme is based on nonlinearity of normalization operations, which can be used to construct any continuous complex function or operation, Boolean or otherwise.Comment: 47 pages, 7 figures in total, 2 tables. Intended for submission to Nature Physics within the next two week

Aggregation and Control of Populations of Thermostatically Controlled Loads by Formal Abstractions

This work discusses a two-step procedure, based on formal abstractions, to generate a finite-space stochastic dynamical model as an aggregation of the continuous temperature dynamics of a homogeneous population of Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCL). The temperature of a single TCL is described by a stochastic difference equation and the TCL status (ON, OFF) by a deterministic switching mechanism. The procedure is formal as it allows the exact quantification of the error introduced by the abstraction -- as such it builds and improves on a known, earlier approximation technique in the literature. Further, the contribution discusses the extension to the case of a heterogeneous population of TCL by means of two approaches resulting in the notion of approximate abstractions. It moreover investigates the problem of global (population-level) regulation and load balancing for the case of TCL that are dependent on a control input. The procedure is tested on a case study and benchmarked against the mentioned alternative approach in the literature.Comment: 40 pages, 21 figures; the paper generalizes the result of conference publication: S. Esmaeil Zadeh Soudjani and A. Abate, "Aggregation of Thermostatically Controlled Loads by Formal Abstractions," Proceedings of the European Control Conference 2013, pp. 4232-4237. version 2: added references for section

Critical Market Crashes

This review is a partial synthesis of the book ``Why stock market crash'' (Princeton University Press, January 2003), which presents a general theory of financial crashes and of stock market instabilities that his co-workers and the author have developed over the past seven years. The study of the frequency distribution of drawdowns, or runs of successive losses shows that large financial crashes are ``outliers'': they form a class of their own as can be seen from their statistical signatures. If large financial crashes are ``outliers'', they are special and thus require a special explanation, a specific model, a theory of their own. In addition, their special properties may perhaps be used for their prediction. The main mechanisms leading to positive feedbacks, i.e., self-reinforcement, such as imitative behavior and herding between investors are reviewed with many references provided to the relevant literature outside the confine of Physics. Positive feedbacks provide the fuel for the development of speculative bubbles, preparing the instability for a major crash. We demonstrate several detailed mathematical models of speculative bubbles and crashes. The most important message is the discovery of robust and universal signatures of the approach to crashes. These precursory patterns have been documented for essentially all crashes on developed as well as emergent stock markets, on currency markets, on company stocks, and so on. The concept of an ``anti-bubble'' is also summarized, with two forward predictions on the Japanese stock market starting in 1999 and on the USA stock market still running. We conclude by presenting our view of the organization of financial markets.Comment: Latex 89 pages and 38 figures, in press in Physics Report