An adaptive agent-based model of homing pigeons : a genetic algorithm approach

Conventionally, agent-based modelling approaches start from a conceptual model capturing the theoretical understanding of the systems of interest. Simulation outcomes are then used “at the end” to validate the conceptual understanding. In todays data rich era, there are suggestions that models should be data-driven. Data-driven workflows are common in mathematical models. However, their application to agent-based models is still in its infancy. Integration of real-time sensor data into modelling workflows opens up the possibility of comparing simulations against real data during the model run. Calibration and validation procedures thus become automated processes that are iteratively executed during the simulation. We hypothesize that incorporation of real-time sensor data into agent-based models improves the predictive ability of such models. In particular, that such integration results in increasingly well calibrated model parameters and rule sets. In this contribution, we explore this question by implementing a flocking model that evolves in real-time. Specifically, we use genetic algorithms approach to simulate representative parameters to describe flight routes of homing pigeons. The navigation parameters of pigeons are simulated and dynamically evaluated against emulated GPS sensor data streams and optimised based on the fitness of candidate parameters. As a result, the model was able to accurately simulate the relative-turn angles and step-distance of homing pigeons. Further, the optimised parameters could replicate loops, which are common patterns in flight tracks of homing pigeons. Finally, the use of genetic algorithms in this study allowed for a simultaneous data-driven optimization and sensitivity analysis.(VLID)219568

Combining evolutionary algorithms and agent-based simulation for the development of urbanisation policies

Urban-planning authorities continually face the problem of optimising the allocation of green space over time in developing urban environments. To help in these decision-making processes, this thesis provides an empirical study of using evolutionary approaches to solve sequential decision making problems under uncertainty in stochastic environments. To achieve this goal, this work is underpinned by developing a theoretical framework based on the economic model of Alonso and the associated methodology for modelling spatial and temporal urban growth, in order to better understand the complexity inherent in this kind of system and to generate and improve relevant knowledge for the urban planning community. The model was hybridised with cellular automata and agent-based model and extended to encompass green space planning based on urban cost and satisfaction. Monte Carlo sampling techniques and the use of the urban model as a surrogate tool were the two main elements investigated and applied to overcome the noise and uncertainty derived from dealing with future trends and expectations. Once the evolutionary algorithms were equipped with these mechanisms, the problem under consideration was defined and characterised as a type of adaptive submodular. Afterwards, the performance of a non-adaptive evolutionary approach with a random search and a very smart greedy algorithm was compared and in which way the complexity that is linked with the configuration of the problem modifies the performance of both algorithms was analysed. Later on, the application of very distinct frameworks incorporating evolutionary algorithm approaches for this problem was explored: (i) an ‘offline’ approach, in which a candidate solution encodes a complete set of decisions, which is then evaluated by full simulation, and (ii) an ‘online’ approach which involves a sequential series of optimizations, each making only a single decision, and starting its simulations from the endpoint of the previous run

Quantitative Mapping of Soil Property Based on Laboratory and Airborne Hyperspectral Data Using Machine Learning

Soil visible and near-infrared spectroscopy provides a non-destructive, rapid and low-cost approach to quantify various soil physical and chemical properties based on their reflectance in the spectral range of 400–2500 nm. With an increasing number of large-scale soil spectral libraries established across the world and new space-borne hyperspectral sensors, there is a need to explore methods to extract informative features from reflectance spectra and produce accurate soil spectroscopic models using machine learning. Features generated from regional or large-scale soil spectral data play a key role in the quantitative spectroscopic model for soil properties. The Land Use/Land Cover Area Frame Survey (LUCAS) soil library was used to explore PLS-derived components and fractal features generated from soil spectra in this study. The gradient-boosting method performed well when coupled with extracted features on the estimation of several soil properties. Transfer learning based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) was proposed to make the model developed from laboratory data transferable for airborne hyperspectral data. The soil clay map was successfully derived using HyMap imagery and the fine-tuned CNN model developed from LUCAS mineral soils, as deep learning has the potential to learn transferable features that generalise from the source domain to target domain. The external environmental factors like the presence of vegetation restrain the application of imaging spectroscopy. The reflectance data can be transformed into a vegetation suppressed domain with a force invariance approach, the performance of which was evaluated in an agricultural area using CASI airborne hyperspectral data. However, the relationship between vegetation and acquired spectra is complicated, and more efforts should put on removing the effects of external factors to make the model transferable from one sensor to another.:Abstract I Kurzfassung III Table of Contents V List of Figures IX List of Tables XIII List of Abbreviations XV 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Motivation 1 1.2 Soil spectra from different platforms 2 1.3 Soil property quantification using spectral data 4 1.4 Feature representation of soil spectra 5 1.5 Objectives 6 1.6 Thesis structure 7 2 Combining Partial Least Squares and the Gradient-Boosting Method for Soil Property Retrieval Using Visible Near-Infrared Shortwave Infrared Spectra 9 2.1 Abstract 10 2.2 Introduction 10 2.3 Materials and methods 13 2.3.1 The LUCAS soil spectral library 13 2.3.2 Partial least squares algorithm 15 2.3.3 Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees 15 2.3.4 Calculation of relative variable importance 16 2.3.5 Assessment 17 2.4 Results 17 2.4.1 Overview of the spectral measurement 17 2.4.2 Results of PLS regression for the estimation of soil properties 19 2.4.3 Results of PLS-GBDT for the estimation of soil properties 21 2.4.4 Relative important variables derived from PLS regression and the gradient-boosting method 24 2.5 Discussion 28 2.5.1 Dimension reduction for high-dimensional soil spectra 28 2.5.2 GBDT for quantitative soil spectroscopic modelling 29 2.6 Conclusions 30 3 Quantitative Retrieval of Organic Soil Properties from Visible Near-Infrared Shortwave Infrared Spectroscopy Using Fractal-Based Feature Extraction 31 3.1 Abstract 32 3.2 Introduction 32 3.3 Materials and Methods 35 3.3.1 The LUCAS topsoil dataset 35 3.3.2 Fractal feature extraction method 37 3.3.3 Gradient-boosting regression model 37 3.3.4 Evaluation 41 3.4 Results 42 3.4.1 Fractal features for soil spectroscopy 42 3.4.2 Effects of different step and window size on extracted fractal features 45 3.4.3 Modelling soil properties with fractal features 47 3.4.3 Comparison with PLS regression 49 3.5 Discussion 51 3.5.1 The importance of fractal dimension for soil spectra 51 3.5.2 Modelling soil properties with fractal features 52 3.6 Conclusions 53 4 Transfer Learning for Soil Spectroscopy Based on Convolutional Neural Networks and Its Application in Soil Clay Content Mapping Using Hyperspectral Imagery 55 4.1 Abstract 55 4.2 Introduction 56 4.3 Materials and Methods 59 4.3.1 Datasets 59 4.3.2 Methods 62 4.3.3 Assessment 67 4.4 Results and Discussion 67 4.4.1 Interpretation of mineral and organic soils from LUCAS dataset 67 4.4.2 1D-CNN and spectral index for LUCAS soil clay content estimation 69 4.4.3 Application of transfer learning for soil clay content mapping using the pre-trained 1D-CNN model 72 4.4.4 Comparison between spectral index and transfer learning 74 4.4.5 Large-scale soil spectral library for digital soil mapping at the local scale using hyperspectral imagery 75 4.5 Conclusions 75 5 A Case Study of Forced Invariance Approach for Soil Salinity Estimation in Vegetation-Covered Terrain Using Airborne Hyperspectral Imagery 77 5.1 Abstract 78 5.2 Introduction 78 5.3 Materials and Methods 81 5.3.1 Study area of Zhangye Oasis 81 5.3.2 Data description 82 5.3.3 Methods 83 5.3.3 Model performance assessment 85 5.4 Results and Discussion 86 5.4.1 The correlation between NDVI and soil salinity 86 5.4.2 Vegetation suppression performance using the Forced Invariance Approach 86 5.4.3 Estimation of soil properties using airborne hyperspectral data 88 5.5 Conclusions 90 6 Conclusions and Outlook 93 Bibliography 97 Acknowledgements 11

The Analysis and Application of Artificial Neural Networks for Early Warning Systems in Hydrology and the Environment

Final PhD thesis submissionArtificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been comprehensively researched, both from a computer scientific perspective and with regard to their use for predictive modelling in a wide variety of applications including hydrology and the environment. Yet their adoption for live, real-time systems remains on the whole sporadic and experimental. A plausible hypothesis is that this may be at least in part due to their treatment heretofore as “black boxes” that implicitly contain something that is unknown, or even unknowable. It is understandable that many of those responsible for delivering Early Warning Systems (EWS) might not wish to take the risk of implementing solutions perceived as containing unknown elements, despite the computational advantages that ANNs offer. This thesis therefore builds on existing efforts to open the box and develop tools and techniques that visualise, analyse and use ANN weights and biases especially from the viewpoint of neural pathways from inputs to outputs of feedforward networks. In so doing, it aims to demonstrate novel approaches to self-improving predictive model construction for both regression and classification problems. This includes Neural Pathway Strength Feature Selection (NPSFS), which uses ensembles of ANNs trained on differing subsets of data and analysis of the learnt weights to infer degrees of relevance of the input features and so build simplified models with reduced input feature sets. Case studies are carried out for prediction of flooding at multiple nodes in urban drainage networks located in three urban catchments in the UK, which demonstrate rapid, accurate prediction of flooding both for regression and classification. Predictive skill is shown to reduce beyond the time of concentration of each sewer node, when actual rainfall is used as input to the models. Further case studies model and predict statutory bacteria count exceedances for bathing water quality compliance at 5 beaches in Southwest England. An illustrative case study using a forest fires dataset from the UCI machine learning repository is also included. Results from these model ensembles generally exhibit improved performance, when compared with single ANN models. Also ensembles with reduced input feature sets, using NPSFS, demonstrate as good or improved performance when compared with the full feature set models. Conclusions are drawn about a new set of tools and techniques, including NPSFS and visualisation techniques for inspection of ANN weights, the adoption of which it is hoped may lead to improved confidence in the use of ANN for live real-time EWS applications.EPSRCUKWIRThe Environment Agenc

ReSCon '12, Research Student Conference: Book of Abstracts

The fifth SED Research Student Conference (ReSCon2012) was hosted over three days, 18-20 June 2012, in the Hamilton Centre at Brunel University. The conference consisted of 130 oral and 70 poster presentations, based on the high quality and diverse research being conducted within the School of Engineering and Design by postgraduate research students. The conference is held annually, and ReSCon plays a key role in contributing to research and innovations within the School