How does monetary policy affect the income class structure? Evidence from the Eurozone.

This work provides evidence on the potential effects of monetary policy on the income class structure via stimulating economic activity and employment in the Eurozone countries over the period 2007Q3-2016Q1. Based on European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) data, we compute the size of income classes (lower, lower-middle, upper-middle, and upper) for the stats that originated the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU-11) and analyse the impact of monetary policy impulses under a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach. We focus on the earnings heterogeneity and the income composition channel and find that a monetary easing shock involving a decrease short-term nominal interest rate has diverse effects on the different income classes, which seems to have led to a more equal income distribution. As theoretically argued by these monetary policy transmission mechanisms, our results confirm the GDP growth and the decrease in unemployment caused by the monetary policies implemented by the European Central Bank since the onset of the financial crisis have had a positive effect for those households located at the bottom of the income-class structure as well as for the middle class.Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tec

Institutional determinants of investment in transition economies

Investment has been found to be a significant determinant of growth. This paper analyses the effects of institutions and transition progress on investment rates of transition economies since the collapse of the Socialist Bloc. Political institution is measured by the Freedom House’s Political Rights and Civil Liberties indexes; economic institution is proxied by the Index of Economic Freedom compiled by the Heritage Foundation; and transition progress is documented by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s transition index. Panel data estimation techniques are applied and the results show that institutions and transition progress have expected and significant effect on investment rates of transition economies. However, it is the progress in all aspects of economic freedom that matters; just some individual economic freedom measures are significant marginally. Besides, as conditioning variables, growth, saving and financial development (liquid liabilities as % of GDP) are also found to have significant and positive effect on investment in transition economies. This paper highlights the indirect effect of institutions on economic growth via investment

Comparison between the financial structure of SMES and that of large enterprises (LES) using the BACH database.

This study examines the financial structures and the performances of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as opposed to large enterprises (LEs) on the basis of the BACH database, which is the most advanced publicly available database for comparisons in this field. It covers the period 1990-1996 and concerns 9 countries: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Japan and the United States. It deals with manufacturing only since this industry provides the best-quality data.SMES, LES, BACH Database, capitcal structures, financial structure and capital, profitability

The Volatility Structure of the Fixed Income Market under the HJM Framework: A Nonlinear Filtering Approach

This paper considers the dynamics for interest rate processes within a multi-factor Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1992) specification. Despite the flexibility of and the notable advances in theoretical research about the HJM models, the number of empirical studies is still inadequate. This paucity is principally because of the difficulties in estimating models in this class, which are not only high-dimensional, but also nonlinear and involve latent state variables. This paper treats the estimation of a fairly broad class of HJM models as a nonlinear filtering problem, and adopts the local linearization filter of Jimenez and Ozaki (2003), which is known to have some desirable statistical and numerical features, to estimate the model via the maximum likelihood method. The estimator is then applied to the interbank offered-rates of the U.S, U.K, Australian and Japanese markets. The two-factor model, with the factors being the level and the slope effect, is found to be a reasonable choice for all of the markets. However, the contribution of each factor towards overall variability of the interest rates and the financial reward each factor claims differ considerably from one market to another.term structure; Heath-Jarrow-Morton; local linearization; filtering

The Extraction of Community Structures from Publication Networks to Support Ethnographic Observations of Field Differences in Scientific Communication

The scientific community of researchers in a research specialty is an important unit of analysis for understanding the field specific shaping of scientific communication practices. These scientific communities are, however, a challenging unit of analysis to capture and compare because they overlap, have fuzzy boundaries, and evolve over time. We describe a network analytic approach that reveals the complexities of these communities through examination of their publication networks in combination with insights from ethnographic field studies. We suggest that the structures revealed indicate overlapping sub- communities within a research specialty and we provide evidence that they differ in disciplinary orientation and research practices. By mapping the community structures of scientific fields we aim to increase confidence about the domain of validity of ethnographic observations as well as of collaborative patterns extracted from publication networks thereby enabling the systematic study of field differences. The network analytic methods presented include methods to optimize the delineation of a bibliographic data set in order to adequately represent a research specialty, and methods to extract community structures from this data. We demonstrate the application of these methods in a case study of two research specialties in the physical and chemical sciences.Comment: Accepted for publication in JASIS

PICES Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Workshop on the Development of Cooperative Research in Coastal Regions of the North Pacific, October 17-18, 1997, Pusan, Republic of Korea

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Measuring Financial Cash Flow and Term Structure Dynamics

Financial turbulence is a phenomenon occurring in anti - persistent markets. In contrast, financial crises occur in persistent markets. A relationship can be established between these two extreme phenomena of long term market dependence and the older financial concept of financial (il-)liquidity. The measurement of the degree of market persistence and the measurement of the degree of market liquidity are related. To accomplish the two research objectives of measurement and simulation of different degrees of financial liquidity, I propose to boldly reformulate and reinterpret the classical laws of fluid mechanics into cash flow mechanics. At first this approach may appear contrived and artificial, but the end results of these reformulations and reinterpretations are useful quantifiable financial quantities, which will assist us with the measurement, analysis and proper characterization of modern dynamic financial markets in ways that classical comparative static financial - \ economic analyses do not allow.Financial Cash Flow, Term Structure

Empirical Implementation of a 2-Factor Structural Model for Loss-Given-Default

In this study we develop a theoretical model for ultimate loss-given default in the Merton (1974) structural credit risk model framework, deriving compound option formulae to model differential seniority of instruments, and incorporating an optimal foreclosure threshold. We consider an extension that allows for an independent recovery rate process, representing undiversifiable recovery risk, having a stochastic drift. The comparative statics of this model are analyzed and compared and in the empirical exercise, we calibrate the models to observed LGDs on bonds and loans having both trading prices at default and at resolution of default, utilizing an extensive sample of losses on defaulted firms (Moody’s Ultimate Recovery Database™), 800 defaults in the period 1987-2008 that are largely representative of the U.S. large corporate loss experience, for which we have the complete capital structures and can track the recoveries on all instruments from the time of default to the time of resolution. We find that parameter estimates vary significantly across recovery segments, that the estimated volatilities of recovery rates and of their drifts are increasing in seniority (bank loans versus bonds). We also find that the component of total recovery volatility attributable to the LGD-side (as opposed to the PD-side) systematic factor is greater for higher ranked instruments and that more senior instruments have lower default risk, higher recovery rate return and volatility, as well as greater correlation between PD and LGD. Analyzing the implications of our model for the quantification of downturn LGD, we find the ratio of the later to ELGD (the “LGD markup”) to be declining in expected LGD, but uniformly higher for lower ranked instruments or for higher PD-LGD correlation. Finally, we validate the model in an out-of-sample bootstrap exercise, comparing it to a high-dimensional regression model and to a non-parametric benchmark based upon the same data, where we find our model to compare favorably. We conclude that our model is worthy of consideration to risk managers, as well as supervisors concerned with advanced IRB under the Basel II capital accord.LGD; credit risk; default; structural model

Services Trade in Developing Asia: A Case Study of the Banking and Insurance Sector in Bangladesh

This study assesses the strengths and weaknesses of reforms in the banking and insurance industries. Banking sector performance is analysed using various indicators as well as Principle Component Analysis techniques. A comparative case study of three banks with different ownership structures is presented. The study concludes with important conclusions and policy implications for future reforms based on the findings.Service Trade, Bangladesh

Coherent modeling of mortality patterns for age-specific subgroups

The recent actuarial literature has shown that mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are similar in some respects and that small differences are unlikely to increase in the long run. The common feeling is that mortality forecasts for individual countries could be improved by taking into account the patterns from a larger group. Starting from this consideration, we apply the three-way Lee–Carter model to a group of countries, by extending the bilinear LC model to a three-way structure, which incorporates a further component in the decomposition of the log-mortality rates. From a methodological point of view, there are several issues to deal with when focusing on such kind of data. In the presence of a three-way data structure, several choices on the pretreatment of the data could affect the whole modeling process. This kind of analysis is useful to assess the source of variation in the raw mortality data, before the extraction of the rank-one components by the LC model. The proposed procedure is used to extract an ad hoc time mortality trend parameter for age-specific subgroups. The results show that the proposed strategy leads to a more coherent description of mortality for age-specific subgroups