Risk Management using Model Predictive Control

Forward planning and risk management are crucial for the success of any system or business dealing with the uncertainties of the real world. Previous approaches have largely assumed that the future will be similar to the past, or used simple forecasting techniques based on ad-hoc models. Improving solutions requires better projection of future events, and necessitates robust forward planning techniques that consider forecasting inaccuracies. This work advocates risk management through optimal control theory, and proposes several techniques to combine it with time-series forecasting. Focusing on applications in foreign exchange (FX) and battery energy storage systems (BESS), the contributions of this thesis are three-fold. First, a short-term risk management system for FX dealers is formulated as a stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) problem in which the optimal risk-cost profiles are obtained through dynamic control of the dealers’ positions on the spot market. Second, grammatical evolution (GE) is used to automate non-linear time-series model selection, validation, and forecasting. Third, a novel measure for evaluating forecasting models, as a part of the predictive model in finite horizon optimal control applications, is proposed. Using both synthetic and historical data, the proposed techniques were validated and benchmarked. It was shown that the stochastic FX risk management system exhibits better risk management on a risk-cost Pareto frontier compared to rule-based hedging strategies, with up to 44.7% lower cost for the same level of risk. Similarly, for a real-world BESS application, it was demonstrated that the GE optimised forecasting models outperformed other prediction models by at least 9%, improving the overall peak shaving capacity of the system to 57.6%

Modeling policy pathways to carbon neutrality in Canada

The Canadian government has made commitments to transition Canada to a carbon neutral economy by 2050, but to date have yet to announce a policy pathway to achieve its goal. This study uses the CIMS energy-economy model to assess two policy packages that could help Canada achieve carbon neutrality by 2050: one focusing on carbon pricing and the other on flexibly designed regulations. Each were modeled in two scenarios, which represented different levels of global climate action. Both policy packages are likely to achieve significant emissions reductions, though reductions will likely come from different sectors of the Canadian economy depending on how aggressively the rest of the world acts on climate change

Now for the long term: the report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

This report is the product of a year long process of research and debate undertaken by a group of eminent leaders on the successes and failures in addressing global challenges over recent decades. As the world slowly emerges from the devastating Financial Crisis, it is time to reflect on the lessons of this turbulent period and think afresh about how to prevent future crises. The Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations focuses on the increasing short-termism of modern politics and our collective inability to break the gridlock which undermines attempts to address the biggest challenges that will shape our future. In Now for the Long Term, they urge decision-makers to overcome their pressing daily preoccupations to tackle problems that will determine the lives of today’s and tomorrow’s generations. Dr James Martin, the founder of the Oxford Martin School, highlights that humanity is at a crossroads. This could be our best century ever, or our worst. The outcome will depend on our ability to understand and harness the extraordinary opportunities as well as manage the unprecedented uncertainties and risks.   The report identifies what these challenges are, explains how progress can be made, and provides practical recommendations. The Commission outlines an agenda for the long term. The case for action is built in three parts. The first, Possible Futures , identifies the key drivers of change and considers how we may address the challenges that will dominate this century. Next, in Responsible Futures, the Commission draws inspiration from previous examples of where impediments to action have been overcome, and lessons from where progress has been stalled. We then consider the characteristics of our current national and global society that frustrate progress. The final part, Practical Futures, sets out the principles for action and offers illustrative recommendations which show how we can build a sustainable, inclusive and resilient future for all. &nbsp

RIO Country Report 2015: Portugal

The 2015 series of RIO Country Reports analyse and assess the policy and the national research and innovation system developments in relation to national policy priorities and the EU policy agenda with special focus on ERA and Innovation Union. The executive summaries of these reports put forward the main challenges of the research and innovation systems.JRC.J.6-Innovation Systems Analysi

OTEM 2032: Catalyzing the Disruption of Transportation Equipment Manufacturing in Ontario

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has created uncertainty. This uncertainty of the impact that AI could have on jobs, people, and life as we know it is often met with sensationalized suggestions such as Elon Musk’s assertion that AI is humanity’s biggest threat (Higgins, 2017). However, I believe that AI is a technology and merely a tool; it is not a force of nature. Hence, as a resident of Ontario who works in the manufacturing industry, I asked: “What might we expect of the manufacturing activities of Ontario's Transportation Equipment Manufacturers (OTEMs) during the emergence of AI in the next 15 years?” I examined this question through a literature survey, scenario planning, and impact analysis. I developed a scenario-planning matrix that included the two most critical uncertain drivers surrounding OTEMs’ business activities in Ontario. These drivers were AI’s ability to significantly disrupt the human labour requirement and the outsourcing of manufacturing activities. I explored the relationship between these two drivers and how scenarios could be used to develop resilient strategies. Next steps included using the uncovered parameters in a strategic planning process for OTEMs to develop strategies and create a culture that embraces resilience. Key words: AI, manufacturing, automation, Ontario, scenario-planning too

Incorporating and contesting the Corporate Food Regime in Colombia: agri-food dynamics in two Zonas de Reserva Campesina (Peasant Reserve Zones)

This thesis explores how the Colombian nation and local, particularly municipal, spaces integrate with and resist the corporate food regime (CFR), which consists of corporate control over all aspects of agriculture from seed to finished product. The research identifies agroecology as the key oppositional movement, science and practice to the CFR. It analyses contingent agroecological expressions to understand differentiation among the peasantry and the conditions that shape the emergence of resistance to the industrial model. Colombia is illustrative because smallholder land access is a historic issue. The need for pro-campesino farming has been reemphasised with the cessation of civil war, subsequent peace negotiations in Havana and the 2016 agreement between the government and FARC-EP. The thesis explores global CFR integration in two Zonas de Reserva Campesina (ZRC) or Peasant Reserve Zones- Colombia’s only pro-campesino development model, first established in 1994, which was also identified in the 2016 peace agreement as a rural reform mechanism. Data collection consisted of secondary sources, over 100 interviews from public policy figures to campesinos and participant observation. The research finds both integration and resistance, resulting in hybrid agricultural systems. In both cases, CFR integration takes place through economic and violent dispossession of smallholder lands- by agribusiness and armed actors respectively, (New) Green Revolution technologies that engender dependence on agribusiness inputs, but also due to neoliberal deregulation and export-oriented economic policies formed by various governments, which have weakened smallholder economies over time. Nevertheless, smallholders in both cases present numerous practical examples of agroecology and are building successful alternative food networks in opposition to agribusiness food circuits. The Colombian cases reveal that it is crucial to place the CFR in national and local contexts to view how actors and circumstances, such as the civil war, hinder and help integration and resistance

Remaking Europe: the new manufacturing as an engine for growth. Bruegel Blueprint Series 26 September 2017

Europe needs to know how it can realise the potential for industrial rejuvenation. How well are European firms responding to the new opportunities for growth, and in which global value chains are they developing these new activities? The policy discussion on the future of manufacturing requires an understanding of the changing role of manufacturing in Europe’s growth agenda

Post-socialist urban infrastructures

Post-Socialist Urban Infrastructures critically elaborates on often forgotten, but some of the most essential, aspects of contemporary urban life, namely infrastructures, and links them to a discussion of post-socialist transformation. As the skeletons of cities, infrastructures capture the ways in which urban environments are assembled and urban lives unfold. Focusing on post-socialist cities, marked by neoliberalisation, polarisation and hybridity, this book offers new and enriching perspectives on urban infrastructures by centering on the often marginalised aspects of urban research - transport, green spaces, and water and heating provision. Featuring cases from West and East alike, the book covers examples from Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Germany, Russia, Georgia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Tajikistan, and India. It provides original insights into the infrastructural back end of post-socialist cities for scholars, planners and activists interested in urban geography, cultural and social anthropology, and urban studies