Export diversification and resource-based industrialization: the case of natural gas

For resource-rich economies, primary commodity specialization has often been considered to be detrimental to growth. Accordingly, export diversification policies centered on resource-based industries have long been advocated as effective ways to moderate the large variability of export revenues. This paper discusses the applicability of a mean-variance portfolio approach to design these strategies and proposes some modifications aimed at capturing the key features of resource processing industries (presence of scale economies and investment lumpiness). These modifications help make the approach more plausible for use in resource-rich countries. An application to the case of natural gas is then discussed using data obtained from Monte Carlo simulations of a calibrated empirical model. Lastly, the proposed framework is put to work to evaluate the performances of the diversification strategies implemented in a set of nine gas-rich economies. These results are then used to formulate some policy recommendations

A survey on financial applications of metaheuristics

Modern heuristics or metaheuristics are optimization algorithms that have been increasingly used during the last decades to support complex decision-making in a number of fields, such as logistics and transportation, telecommunication networks, bioinformatics, finance, and the like. The continuous increase in computing power, together with advancements in metaheuristics frameworks and parallelization strategies, are empowering these types of algorithms as one of the best alternatives to solve rich and real-life combinatorial optimization problems that arise in a number of financial and banking activities. This article reviews some of the works related to the use of metaheuristics in solving both classical and emergent problems in the finance arena. A non-exhaustive list of examples includes rich portfolio optimization, index tracking, enhanced indexation, credit risk, stock investments, financial project scheduling, option pricing, feature selection, bankruptcy and financial distress prediction, and credit risk assessment. This article also discusses some open opportunities for researchers in the field, and forecast the evolution of metaheuristics to include real-life uncertainty conditions into the optimization problems being considered.This work has been partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (TRA2013-48180-C3-P, TRA2015-71883-REDT), FEDER, and the Universitat Jaume I mobility program (E-2015-36)

Développement de trois éléments d'une méthodologie de gestion du risque de portefeuilles de projets

La gestion du risque joue un rôle très important dans la gestion d’un portefeuille de projets. Un portefeuille est constitué par un choix judicieux de projets dont le niveau de risque est acceptable. Le choix de projets est fait également de manière à maximiser la valeur du portefeuille. Les concepts de maximisation de la valeur et d’équilibrage risque-bénéfice sont des concepts fondamentaux dans la théorie de la gestion de portefeuilles. Voici l’importance d’avoir une gestion du risque qui permet de maintenir un niveau acceptable du risque et de maximiser la valeur du portefeuille en cherchant à exploiter les opportunités. La recherche réalisée a permis l’élaboration de trois éléments d’une méthodologie de gestion du risque conçue spécifiquement pour être appliquée durant la gestion de portefeuilles de projets. Les trois éléments considèrent les décisions prises durant les processus de la gestion de portefeuilles ainsi que les caractéristiques du portefeuille dans une approche stratégique. Ils mettent en valeur la recherche d’opportunités et leur maximisation. Spécifiquement, les éléments développés sont : une démarche d’identification de risques et d’opportunités, un ensemble d’indicateurs clé de performance et une démarche pour construire et utiliser une matrice de suivi des risques et des opportunités. Ces éléments peuvent être facilement intégrés aux méthodologies génériques ou aux standards acceptés de gestion du risque. Les éléments n’invalident pas les concepts existants dans la littérature. Au contraire, ils complètent la théorie déjà existante de gestion du risque en tenant compte des apports d’autres chercheurs. Cette recherche met en évidence les relations existantes entre les objectifs du portefeuille et les projets. Ces relations forment un réseau d’interdépendances. Plus spécifiquement, ces interdépendances sont composées par les objectifs, les bénéfices et les projets. Une fois que ces composants sont situés dans le temps, ils forment les flux « projets-bénéfice-objectifs ». Cette façon de présenter les concepts est d’une grande utilité puisqu’elle permet de chercher les conséquences sur l’atteinte des objectifs. Elle permet également d’établir des marges de manœuvre pour réagir afin de minimiser ou de maximiser les conséquences. Des plans d’action sont mis en place depuis la détection des premiers risques ou des premières opportunités matérialisées. Cela fournit un caractère anticipatif qui facilite l’adaptation du portefeuille aux conditions changeantes de son environnement.----------ABSTRACT Risk management plays an important role in managing a portfolio of projects. The reason for having a portfolio of projects is the maximization of the portfolio value following a selection of projects under an accepted level of risk. The concepts of value maximization and risk-benefit balancing are fundamental concepts in the theory of portfolio management. This is the importance of risk management which maintains an acceptable level of risk and maximizes the portfolio value searching and increasing opportunities. The research conducted has had as result the development of three elements of a risk management methodology which is specifically designed for the management of project portfolios. The three developed elements consider decisions taken during the processes of portfolio management; they also consider portfolio characteristics from a strategic standpoint. They highlight the research of opportunities as well as their maximization. Specifically, the developed elements are: a structure for identifying risks and opportunities, a set of key strategic performance indicators, and a framework for building and using a matrix to monitor risks and opportunities. These elements can be easily integrated within generic methodologies or accepted standards of risk management. The elements do not invalidate existing concepts in the literature. In opposite, they complement existing theory of risk management adding concepts found in the literature and considered as a need by other researchers. Research has revealed the existing relationships between portfolio objectives and projects which form a network of interdependences. These interdependences are built from objectives, benefits and projects; once these components are extended on a time scale, they form flows of "projects-profit-objectives." This way of exhibiting those concepts is very useful because it allows for searching the impact on the achievement of objectives. At the same time, they allow for setting the manoeuvre margin to react and minimizing or maximizing consequences. Action plans are put in place since the first detection of materialized risks or opportunities. It provides an anticipatory characteristic which helps adapt the portfolio to changing conditions in which the portfolio progresses. The research has explored several concepts, such as benefits management, key performance indicators, critical success factors, and the complexity of a project portfolio. It has also explored current guides and methodologies in order to establish a framework within which the developed elements would be integrated

Export diversification through resource-based industrialization: The case of natural gas

For small resource-rich developing economies, specialization in raw exports is usually considered to be detrimental to growth and Resource-Based Industrialization (RBI) is often advocated to promote export diversification. This paper develops a new methodology to assess the performance of these RBI policies. We first formulate an adapted mean-variance portfolio model that explicitly takes into consideration: (i) a technology-based representation of the set of feasible export combinations and (ii) the cost structure of the resource processing industries. Second, we provide a computationally tractable reformulation of the resulting mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problem. Finally, we present an application to the case of natural gas, comparing current and efficient export-oriented industrialization strategies of nine gas-rich developing countries

Crude oil price volatility and its impact on export dependent economies

Motivated by the problem of crude oil price volatility, this research is examining interdependences between crude oil price and each of GDP, foreign account, gold price, futures price, and also, stock markets. The research was mainly directed at examining the impact of oil price volatility on the economic variables of the commodity’s export dependent economies, with particular reference to Nigeria. However the outcomes provide a framework for extensions and application to the economic conditions of net oil importing countries, other primary commodities, Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) and crude oil revenue management. As the research is motivated by the behaviour of a commodity (oil), economy or share (indices) over time, the study applies time series analysis in order to address the research questions.In examining if crude oil price volatility has any impact on the commodity’s export dependent economies such as Nigeria, chapter 4’s analysis found evidence of oil price volatility impact on the Bonny Light (BL) spot, GDP and also, foreign reserve account. In trying to identify an efficient price hedging mechanism for the BL, chapter 5 found that the West Texas Intermediate’s futures price is able to predict the BL spot. Chapter 6 examined potentials for market efficiency and volatility transmission between crude oil spot and the stock markets of selected oil export dependent countries. The results suggest evidence of volatility transmission in most tested series pairs. Thus, given the examined variables in this research, the overall outcome suggest a widening influence of crude oil price volatility on the commodity’s export dependent economies at large

Contribution of systems thinking and complex adaptive system attributes to sustainable food production: Example from a climate-smart village

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) conceptually has the potential to contribute to the sustainable development goals of achieving zero hunger, reducing land degradation, eliminating poverty, tackling climate change, and promoting gender equality. The scaling-up needed to achieve goals of CSA represents a challenge, as it entails understanding synergies between often opposing socioeconomic and environmental priorities and trade-offs over temporal and spatial scales. In this paper, we tested new approaches to support scaling-up of sustainable food production through investigating the contribution of systems thinking as a conceptual approach and complex adaptive system (CAS) attributes as a framework for analysis of CSA. This was done through examining (i) to what extent CSA represents a CAS and (ii) what contribution systems thinking and CAS attributes can make to understanding and scaling-up sustainable food production systems through CSA. The CSA situation was conceptualized through systems thinking sessions with women farmers in the climate-smart village (CSV) of Doggoh-Jirapa, northern Ghana, and was guided by the Distinctions, Systems, Relationships and Perspectives (DSRP) framework. Systems thinking, and CAS attributes provide system-wide understanding of elements, dynamics and trade-offs over temporal and spatial scale in selected agri-food systems. As such it could aid horizontal and vertical scaling-up by informing policy developoment and selection of a context-specific portfolio of technologies and practices at landscape and farm levels to achieve synergies between goals. In this study, systems thinking enabled women farmers in the CSV to identify income-generating and tree planting activities, with desirable simultaneous system-wide impact. The paper calls for further testing of tools, approaches, and methods that enable dynamic systems thinking to inform scaling-up efforts, while embracing the transdisciplinary nature and complexity of CSA as a constituent of the food production system

A methodology for strategy-oriented project portfolio selection taking dynamic synergy into considerations

The selection of an optimal project portfolio from multiple project proposals to implement management strategy is always a challenge task for project managers, especially, in the selection of large-scale and complicated projects. This is particular true because project portfolio selection decisions have to be made based on complicated evolution, comprehensive strategic criteria and dynamic synergies. This paper presents a proposed methodology of system dynamic model with consideration of dynamic synergies to predict the value of strategic realization through project portfolio implementation. This method can be applied in the project portfolio selection process, which consists of three procedures: project elimination by resource constraints, project functional value determination and system dynamics approach modelling simulation. In this case, dynamic synergy considerations can help to produce more rational selection results while strategy-oriented selection can ensure that the selected project portfolio aligns with a company’s strategy. A case study is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed methodology. The results show that the proposed method can help project managers to select an optimal project portfolio with maximal strategic criteria. The proposed method can be incorporated into expert systems in the organizations to enhance the organizational objective priorities in the decision-making process

A Comprehensive Optimization Framework for Designing Sustainable Renewable Energy Production Systems

As the world has recognized the importance of diversifying its energy resource portfolio away from fossil resources and more towards renewable resources such as biomass, there arises a need for developing strategies which can design renewable sustainable value chains that can be scaled up efficiently and provide tangible net environmental benefits from energy utilization. The objective of this research is to develop and implement a novel decision-making framework for the optimal design of renewable energy systems. The proposed optimization framework is based on a distributed, systematic approach which is composed of different layers including systems-based strategic optimization, detailed mechanistic modeling and operational level optimization. In the strategic optimization the model is represented by equations which describe physical flows of materials across the system nodes and financial flows that result from the system design and material movements. Market uncertainty is also incorporated into the model through stochastic programming. The output of the model includes optimal design of production capacity of the plant for the planning horizon by maximizing the net present value (NPV). The second stage consists of three main steps including simulation of the process in the simulation software, identification of critical sources of uncertainties through global sensitivity analysis, and employing stochastic optimization methodologies to optimize the operating condition of the plant under uncertainty. To exemplify the efficacy of the proposed framework a hypothetical lignocellulosic biorefinery based on sugar conversion platform that converts biomass to value-added biofuels and biobased chemicals is utilized as a case study. Furthermore, alternative technology options and possible process integrations in each section of the plant are analysed by exploiting the advantages of process simulation and the novel hybrid optimization framework. In conjunction with the simulation and optimization studies, the proposed framework develops quantitative metrics to associate economic values with technical barriers. The outcome of this work is a new distributed decision support framework which is intended to help economic development agencies, as well as policy makers in the renewable energy enterprises

Extractive socionatures and resistance. The un/making of Kyrgyzstan's gold rush

Die Grenzen von Ressourcenabbau reichen tausende Meter über und unter die Erde. Dabei verfestigt und vertieft die Beschleunigung des Extraktivismus ungleiche Entwicklung und Ungerechtigkeiten auf der Welt. In Zentralasien bleiben Konflikte um Sozionatur in der kritischen Forschung zu Ressourcenextraktivismus und Widerstand jedoch weitgehend unterbeleuchtet. Diese Doktorarbeit leistet einen Beitrag zu der Ausweitung des Goldbergbaus in Kirgisistan und trägt zu einem räumlich umgearbeiteten, historisierenden und politisch sensiblen Verständnis des sich global ausweitenden Ressourcenextraktivismus bei. Die Arbeit präsentiert eine situierte Darstellung der multiskalaren Prozesse und Praktiken innerhalb und zwischen drei Standorten, die Kirgisistans Goldrausch ab/schaffen: die Hauptstadt Bischkek, das politische- und Verwaltungszentrum für mineralische Rohstoffe; Orlovka, ein Fall von angeblicher Kooperation; und Maidan, ein Fall von sich lange hinziehenden Auseinandersetzungen. Durch einen interdisziplinären Forschungsprozess entwickelt die Doktorarbeit einen relationalen soziomaterialen Ansatz zur Erforschung von multiskalaren extraktiven Verschränkungen der materiellen Dimensionen von Gold, seinen unterschiedlichen Bewertungen und seiner Governance. Sie mobilisiert die interdisziplinäre soziomateriale Analytik, durch ein multimethoden- Forschungsdesign, welche die miteinander verflochtenen strukturellen und historisch-geographischen Bedingungen offenbart. Dabei werden Konvergenzen im wachsenden geerdeten politischen Aktivismus gegen die globalen Strukturen des Extraktivismus, der die pluriversalen Wege zum Wohlbefinden aufkündigt zu Tage gefördert. Diese Doktorarbeit zeigt konsequent den Wert von disziplinärem und methodischem Pluralismus bei der empirischen Erforschung zum Zusammenspiel gegenseitig konstituierender Strukturen als auch von verorteter mehr-als-menschlicher Autonomie, die dem Schaffen und Abschaffen von Ressourcen und Ressourcengrenzen zugrunde liegen.Resource frontiers extend to thousands of meters below and above the soil in pursuit of progress. Accelerating extractivism in fact entrenches uneven development and injustices across the globe. Yet, our age is not only hyper-extractive, it is also resistant: multifarious communities stand up against incessant extractivism. Socionatural struggles in Central Asia however remain unexplored in critical research on resource extractivism and resistance. Focusing on expanding gold mining in Kyrgyzstan, the given thesis contributes to spatially reworked, historicising and politically sensitive understandings of globally advancing resource extractivism. The thesis presents a grounded account of the multi-scalar processes and practices within and between three sites un/making Kyrgyzstan’s gold rush: the capital Bishkek, the centre of mineral governance; Orlovka, an alleged case of cooperation; and Maidan, a protracted case of contestation. Within an interdisciplinary research process, the thesis advances a relational sociomaterial approach for engaging the multi-scalar extractive entanglements of gold’s material dimensions, its different valuations, and its governance. Mobilising the interdisciplinary sociomaterial analytic through a multi-method research design reveals the intertwined structural and historico-geographical conditions that enact gold mining in Kyrgyzstan in an extractive state order while motivating ordinary citizens’ resistance to this order based on its emergent sociomaterialities. Unpacking embodied complexities in Orlovka and Maidan unearths convergences in surging grounded political activism against the global structures of extractivism that forecloses pluriversal paths to well-being. This thesis demonstrates the value of disciplinary and methodological pluralism in rendering visible the interplay of mutually constitutive structures and situated more-than-human agency that undergirds the making and unmaking of resources and resource frontiers