Uncertainty in mesoscale numerical weather prediction : probabilistic forecasting of precipitation

Over the last decade, advances in numerical weather prediction (NWP) led to forecasts on even finer horizontal scales and a better representation of mesoscale processes. High-resolution mod- els provide the user with realistic weather patterns on the km-scale. However, the evaluation of such small-scale model output remains still a challenge in forecast verification and the quan- tification of forecast uncertainty. Ensembles are the main tool to assess uncertainty from NWP models. The first operational mesoscale NWP ensemble was developed by the German Meteo- rological Service (DWD) in 2010. The German-focused COSMO-DE-EPS is especially designed to improve quantitative precipitation forecasts, which is still one of the most difficult weather variables to predict. This study investigates the potential of mesoscale NWP ensembles to predict quantitative pre- cipitation. To comprise the uncertainty inherent in NWP, precipitation forecasts should take the form of probabilistic predictions. Typical point forecasts for precipitation are the probability that a certain threshold will be exceeded as well as quantiles. Quantiles are very suitable to predict quantitative precipitation and do not depend an a priori defined thresholds, as is necessary for the probability forecasts. Various statistical methods are explored to transform the ensemble forecast into probabilistic predictions, either in terms of probabilities or quantiles. An enhanced framework for statistical postprocessing of quantitative precipitation quantile predictions is de- veloped based on a Bayesian inference of quantile regression. For a further investigation of the predictive performance of quantile forecasts, the pool of verification methods is expanded by the decomposition and graphical exploration of the quantile score. The decomposition allows to attribute changes in the predictive performance of quantile forecasts either to the reliability or the information content of a forecasting scheme. Together with the Bayesian quantile regression model, this study contributes to an enhanced framework of statistical postprocessing and probabilistic forecast verification of quantitative precipitation quantile predictions derived from mesoscale NWP ensembles

Handbook for MAP, volume 32. Part 1: MAP summary. Part 2: MAPSC minutes, reading, August 1989. MAP summaries from nations. Part 3: MAP data catalogue

Extended abstracts from the fourth workshop on the technical and scientific aspects of mesosphere stratosphere troposphere (MST) radar are presented. Individual sessions addressed the following topics: meteorological applications of MST and ST radars, networks, and campaigns; the dynamics of the equatorial middle atmosphere; interpretation of radar returns from clear air; techniques for studying gravity waves and turbulence, intercomparison and calibration of wind and wave measurements at various frequencies; progress in existing and planned MST and ST radars; hardware design for MST and ST radars and boundary layer/lower troposphere profilers; signal processing; and data management

Improving water network management by efficient division into supply clusters

El agua es un recurso escaso que, como tal, debe ser gestionado de manera eficiente. Así, uno de los propósitos de dicha gestión debiera ser la reducción de pérdidas de agua y la mejora del funcionamiento del abastecimiento. Para ello, es necesario crear un marco de trabajo basado en un conocimiento profundo de la redes de distribución. En los casos reales, llegar a este conocimiento es una tarea compleja debido a que estos sistemas pueden estar formados por miles de nodos de consumo, interconectados entre sí también por miles de tuberías y sus correspondientes elementos de alimentación. La mayoría de las veces, esas redes no son el producto de un solo proceso de diseño, sino la consecuencia de años de historia que han dado respuesta a demandas de agua continuamente crecientes con el tiempo. La división de la red en lo que denominaremos clusters de abastecimiento, permite la obtención del conocimiento hidráulico adecuado para planificar y operar las tareas de gestión oportunas, que garanticen el abastecimiento al consumidor final. Esta partición divide las redes de distribución en pequeñas sub-redes, que son virtualmente independientes y están alimentadas por un número prefijado de fuentes. Esta tesis propone un marco de trabajo adecuado en el establecimiento de vías eficientes tanto para dividir la red de abastecimiento en sectores, como para desarrollar nuevas actividades de gestión, aprovechando esta estructura dividida. La propuesta de desarrollo de cada una de estas tareas será mediante el uso de métodos kernel y sistemas multi-agente. El spectral clustering y el aprendizaje semi-supervisado se mostrarán como métodos con buen comportamiento en el paradigma de encontrar una red sectorizada que necesite usar el número mínimo de válvulas de corte. No obstante, sus algoritmos se vuelven lentos (a veces infactibles) dividiendo una red de abastecimiento grande.Herrera Fernández, AM. (2011). Improving water network management by efficient division into supply clusters [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/11233Palanci

Wind Power

This book is the result of inspirations and contributions from many researchers of different fields. A wide verity of research results are merged together to make this book useful for students and researchers who will take contribution for further development of the existing technology. I hope you will enjoy the book, so that my effort to bringing it together for you will be successful. In my capacity, as the Editor of this book, I would like to thanks and appreciate the chapter authors, who ensured the quality of the material as well as submitting their best works. Most of the results presented in to the book have already been published on international journals and appreciated in many international conferences

Small scale hybrid concentrated solar power - biomass system. Development, time dependent modelling and validation

Proceeding from the sustainable development principle and the current energy issues, in the present work a small-scale fully renewable power plant was designed, modelled in a time-dependent environment and validated. The plant is design in order to produce both thermal and electric power either in on- or off-grid configuration. With respect to the state of the art, the power plant is composed by standard and well-known technologies. The novelties brought with the present study are entailed in the arrangement and size of the technologies themselves. Thus the selected parabolic trough solar field is a small size one, i.e. 1,2 MW, on the contrary of the usual multi-MW design. Moreover, the solar section is co-powered with a biomass furnace in place of the typical fossil fuel power generators. Finally, a steam engine is used in a saturated steam Rankine cycle substituting the most common configuration based on steam turbine and superheated steam cycle. In order to properly evaluate the plant performances, a time-dependent simulation tool was used, allowing to take into account the meteorological variations during a one year period, which has a direct influence on the solar field, affecting the whole system behaviour. Three different working configurations were proposed, with the aim to assess the plant flexibility to different working conditions, e.g. off-grid or grid-connected. In particular the proposed models are a baseline configuration with constant power outputs, an electric or thermal power tracking scenario coupled with end-users load, and a desalt scenario for electric power and desalted seawater production. The study shows the capability of the plant to follow different managements, demonstrating its suitability to work in several environments, thus it is effectively reproducible in different countries

Advances in Intelligent Robotics and Collaborative Automation

This book provides an overview of a series of advanced research lines in robotics as well as of design and development methodologies for intelligent robots and their intelligent components. It represents a selection of extended versions of the best papers presented at the Seventh IEEE International Workshop on Intelligent Data Acquisition and Advanced Computing Systems: Technology and Applications IDAACS 2013 that were related to these topics. Its contents integrate state of the art computational intelligence based techniques for automatic robot control to novel distributed sensing and data integration methodologies that can be applied to intelligent robotics and automation systems. The objective of the text was to provide an overview of some of the problems in the field of robotic systems and intelligent automation and the approaches and techniques that relevant research groups within this area are employing to try to solve them.The contributions of the different authors have been grouped into four main sections:• Robots• Control and Intelligence• Sensing• Collaborative automationThe chapters have been structured to provide an easy to follow introduction to the topics that are addressed, including the most relevant references, so that anyone interested in this field can get started in the area

Benelux meeting on systems and control, 23rd, March 17-19, 2004, Helvoirt, The Netherlands

Book of abstract