Multi criteria risk analysis of a subsea BOP system

The Subsea blowout preventer (BOP) which is latched to a subsea wellhead is one of several barriers in the well to prevent kicks and blowouts and it is the most important and critical equipment, as it becomes the last line of protection against blowout. The BOP system used in Subsea drilling operations is considered a Safety – Critical System, with a high severity consequence following its failure. Following past offshore blowout incidents such as the most recent Macondo in the Gulf of Mexico, there have been investigations, research, and improvements sought for improved understanding of the BOP system and its operation. This informs the need for a systematic re-evaluation of the Subsea BOP system to understand its associated risk and reliability and identify critical areas/aspects/components. Different risk analysis techniques were surveyed and the Failure modes effect and criticality analysis (FMECA) selected to be used to drive the study in this thesis. This is due to it being a simple proven cost effective process that can add value to the understanding of the behaviours and properties of a system, component, software, function or other. The output of the FMECA can be used to inform or support other key engineering tasks such as redesigning, enhanced qualification and testing activity or maintenance for greater inherent reliability and reduced risk potential. This thesis underscores the application of the FMECA technique to critique associated risk of the Subsea BOP system. System Functional diagrams was developed with boundaries defined, a FMECA were carried out and an initial select list of critical component failure modes identified. The limitations surrounding the confidence of the FMECA failure modes ranking outcome based on Risk priority number (RPN) is presented and potential variations in risk interpretation are discussed. The main contribution in this thesis is an innovative framework utilising Multicriteria decision making (MCDA) analysis techniques with consideration of fuzzy interval data is applied to the Subsea BOP system critical failure modes from the FMECA analysis. It utilised nine criticality assessment criteria deduced from expert consultation to obtain a more reliable ranking of failure modes. The MCDA techniques applied includes the technique for order of Preference for similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), Fuzzy TOPSIS, TOPSIS with interval data, and Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment of Evaluations (PROMETHEE). The outcome of the Multi-criteria analysis of the BOP system clearly shows failures of the Wellhead connector, LMRP hydraulic connector and Control system related failure as the Top 3 most critical failure with respect to a well control. The critical failure mode and components outcome from the analysis in this thesis is validated using failure data from industry database and a sensitivity analysis carried out. The importance of maintenance, testing and redundancy to the BOP system criticality was established by the sensitivity analysis. The potential for MCDA to be used for more specific analysis of criteria for a technology was demonstrated. Improper maintenance, inspection, testing (functional and pressure) are critical to the BOP system performance and sustenance of a high reliability level. Material selection and performance of components (seals, flanges, packers, bolts, mechanical body housings) relative to use environment and operational conditions is fundamental to avoiding failure mechanisms occurrence. Also worthy of notice is the contribution of personnel and organisations (by way of procedures to robustness and verification structure to ensure standard expected practices/rules are followed) to failures as seen in the root cause discussion. OEMs, operators and drilling contractors to periodically review operation scenarios relative to BOP system product design through the use of a Failure reporting analysis and corrective action system. This can improve design of monitoring systems, informs requirement for re-qualification of technology and/or next generation designs. Operations personnel are to correctly log in failures in these systems, and responsible Authority to ensure root cause analysis is done to uncover underlying issue initiating and driving failures

Risk Evaluation: Brief Review and Innovation Model Based on Fuzzy Logic and MCDM

The risk assessment of engineering systems represents an important part of the quality of service and dependability. The existing methods for risk evaluation use crisp sets for rating partial indicators' proposition and their cumulative products as an overall indicator. In this paper, existing FMEA and FMECA methods have been improved using the fuzzy expert system for calculating the risk priority number. The application of fuzzy logic allows the use of linguistic descriptions for risk analysis. In this way, the state of the system in terms of risks and consequences is better described. The settings of the fuzzy systems are based on the application of two multi-criteria decision-making methods. The AHP method was used to define the mutual relationship of the impact of partial indicators (occurrence, severity, and detectability) on risk. In this way, subjectivity in risk assessment is reduced. In the composition of the fuzzy model, the TOPSIS method is introduced to reduce the dissipation of results, which contributes to the accuracy of the outcome. This contributes to the accuracy of the results. The results were verified through a case study of a complex engineering system-bucket-wheel excavators. The risk was observed from the aspect of the danger of damage and the danger of downtime. The initial information for weak points of ES is defined according to historical damage events and statistics of downtime. Expert knowledge was used for weak points grading in the model. Additional model verification was performed using similar methods, using the same input data. The innovative model, presented in the paper, shows that it is possible to correct different weights of risk indicators. The obtained results show less dispersion compared with other existing methods. Weak points with increased risk have been located, and an algorithm has been proposed for risk-based maintenance application and implementation

On the combination of water emergency wells and mobile treatment systems: a case study of the city of Berlin

A shortage of water leads to severe consequences for populations. Recent examples like the ongoing water shortage in Kapstadt or in Gloucestershire in 2007 highlight both the challenges authorities face to restore the water supply and the importance of installing efficient preparedness measures and plans. This study develops a proactive planning approach of emergency measures for possible impairments of water supply systems and validates this with a case study on water contamination in the city of Berlin. We formulate a capacitated maximal covering problem as a mixed-integer optimization model where we combine existing emergency infrastructure with the deployment of mobile water treatment systems. The model selects locations for mobile water treatment systems to maximize the public water supply within defined constraints. With the extension to a multi-objective decision making model, possible trade-offs between the water supply coverage and costs, and between the coverage of differently prioritized demand points are investigated. Therefore, decision makers benefit from a significantly increased transparency regarding potential outcomes of their decisions, leading to improved decisions before and during a crisis

Application of a multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM) model for selecting appropriate maintenance strategy for marine and offshore machinery operations

The process of selecting appropriate maintenance strategy to enhance the operational efficiency of marine and offshore machinery under an uncertain environment is challenging due to the many criteria that need to be considered and modelled. In addition, the design of such complex machinery on-board a vessel consists of many subjective and imprecise parameters contained in different quantitative and qualitative forms. This paper proposes a strategic multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) methodology for the concise and straightforward selection of an appropriate maintenance strategy. The decision support structure allows the use of multiple decision makers to incorporate and aggregate their subjective opinions transparently. In the analysis, a Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Situation (TOPSIS) was employed to rank the maintenance strategies with respect to costs and benefits for their subsequent implementation. The purpose of using MAGDM in this paper is to aggregate and synthesise opinions of experts, thus, guiding them in decision making when they are planning to implement a cost effective maintenance investment. © 2019 Elsevier Lt

Risk-Based Multi-Objective Cross-Asset Budget Planning and Allocation Framework for the Integrated Asset Management System (IAMS) Using a Case Study of the City of Sugar Land, TX.

A proper strategic asset management enables one to understand what network performance can be achieved, at what expense, and with what associated risks. However, the current management approaches practiced by many cities are very parochial and limited to a single asset type, justifying a need for an Integrated Asset Management System (IAMS). IAMS provides an interface on which different assets in a facility get digitally connected. It is a data-centric strategic asset management system that prioritizes the maintenance and rehabilitation schedule of various assets based on various factors like the utility, budget, condition, and so forth. This research project proposes a risk-based reliability-centric asset management approach to combine the different single asset management strategies into a cross-asset management model using a case study of the asset database at the City of Sugarland, TX. The model works on the principle that the risk associated with an asset's failure is the function of the direct and indirect cost of replacement. While the direct cost of replacement is the unit cost, the indirect cost is the additional cost related to the failure, which typically is not quantified easily in terms of the monetary units. The assets are prioritized based on the highest yearly benefit to cost ratio for replacement, with the benefit being a reduction in the expected monetary consequences of failure. The outcomes of the designed model are analyzed in terms of a reduction in the network level expected annual failure rate, an increase in the network level average reliability, and a decrease in the number of assets in a very high-risk category in the risk matrix. The end product of the research is a SQL-based quantitative tool that allows the decision-makers to prioritize the cross-asset replacement under different yearly budget scenarios, allocate the replacement budget for the assets, and visualize the results using the interface of Microsoft Power-Bi

Subsea fluid sampling to maximise production asset in offshore field development

The acquisition of representative subsea fluid sampling from offshore field development asset is crucial for the correct evaluation of oil reserves and for the design of subsea production facilities. Due to rising operational expenditures, operators and manufacturers have been working hard to provide systems to enable cost effective subsea fluid sampling solutions. To achieve this, any system has to collect sufficient sample volumes to ensure statistically valid characterisation of the sampled fluids. In executing the research project, various subsea sampling methods used in the offshore industry were examined and ranked using multi criteria decision making; a solution using a remote operated vehicle was selected as the preferred method, to compliment the subsea multiphase flowmeter capability, used to provide well diagnostics to measure individual phases – oil, gas, and water. A mechanistic (compositional fluid tracking) model is employed, using the fluid properties that are equivalent to the production flow stream being measured, to predict reliable reservoir fluid characteristics on the subsea production system. This is applicable even under conditions where significant variations in the reservoir fluid composition occur in transient production operations. The model also adds value in the decision to employ subsea processing in managing water breakthrough as the field matures. This can be achieved through efficient processing of the fluid with separation and boosting delivered to the topside facilities or for water re-injection to the reservoir. The combination of multiphase flowmeter, remote operated vehicle deployed fluid sampling and the mechanistic model provides a balanced approach to reservoir performance monitoring. Therefore, regular and systematic field tailored application of subsea fluid sampling should provide detailed understanding on formation fluid, a basis for accurate prediction of reservoir fluid characteristic, to maximize well production in offshore field development

Benefit, Cost, and Risk Analysis in Selecting Gas Detector Technology for Oil and Gas Processing Area, Fuzzy AHP Approach

Pada area pemrosesan minyak dan gas bumi, pengendalian risiko yang sesuai harus dilakukan untuk mencegah terjadinya suatu insiden, misalnya kebocoran gas, kebakaran, dan peledakan. Dengan menginstal detektor gas pada teknologi yang sesuai merupakan kondisi yang tidak terelakan untuk mengurangi dampak risiko. Jenis detektor gas sesuai merupakan sebuah keharusan untuk meyakinkan reliabilitas dari sistem gas detektor tersebut. Riset ini mengevaluasi empat alternatif gas detektor berdasarkan karakteristiknya dalam kriteria benefit, risiko, dan biaya. Integrasi teknik Delphi dan Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (fuzzy AHP) digunakan untuk menilai tingkat kepentingan teknologi gas detektor. Sub-kriteria dibangun dan dinilai berdasarkan teknik Delphi. Sepuluh panelis ahli dari bidang ilmu proses, produksi, dan maintenance turut serta dalam menentukan sub-kriteria tersebut. Evaluasi fuzzy AHP mengungkapkan bahwa detector gas point-type infrared memiliki nilai tertinggi diantara seluruh gas detector yang lain. Hal ini berarti bahwa gas detector point-type infrared memeiliki nilai efisiensi yang baik pada operasi keselamatan pemrosesan. Detektor gas jenis point-type infrared juga memiliki nilai tebaik pada kriteria risiko. ============================================================================================================== In the oil and gas processing area, adequate risk control must be prearranged to prevent incidents, such as major gas leakage, fire, and explosion. Installing gas detectors at appropriate technology is one of indispensable conditions for implementation of risk reduction measures. The suitability of gas detector technology is necessary to ensure the reliability of selected gas detector. This research evaluates four alternatives of gas detector based on their characteristic in terms of benefit, risks, and cost. Integration of Delphi technique and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (fuzzy AHP) is implemented to evaluate the suitability of gas detector technology. Ten expert panelists from production, safety, and maintenance departments are involved in Delphi Technique to assess the sub-criteria of fuzzy AHP. The fuzzy AHP evaluation reveals that point-type infrared gas detector has the highest value among all gas detector technologies. This means that point-type infrared technology has the most efficient value in delivering service to process safety operation. Point-type infrared gas detector also reveals the best value in risk criteria evaluation

Methodology for the evaluation and design of projects considering multiple criteria and uncertainty. Application to the development of energy projects in rural areas

Tesi en modalitat de compendi de publicacionsIn 2015, the United Nations defined the Sustainable Development Goals in a transition towards a world without poverty and where human rights, equity and sustainability are prioritized. In particular, modern energy services are considered crucial not only to achieve universal access to energy by 2030, but due to their contribution to alleviate chronical poverty, reduce food insecurity, promote the access to modern information in schools and enhance the start of productive activities. However, the aim of global access by 2030 is still far from being complete, with more than 700 million people living in rural areas without access to electricity and using firewood and other polluting traditional biomass for cooking and heating. Decentralized energy systems are gaining attention as a more feasible solution than grid extension to provide energy to rural and inaccessible areas. The evaluation and design of decentralized systems is a complex process that needs to take into account multiple alternatives and criteria to ensure a long-term sustainability, but usually available studies in literature focus exclusively in technical and economic aspects. Also, the minority of studies following a multicriteria decision-making approach underestimate the effect of the potential lack of confidence of the experts and users consulted to weight the importance of each criterion or to evaluate a specific alternative. In this context, the objective of this thesis is to develop multicriteria procedures considering uncertainty to increase the robustness of the results. These procedures are applied to projects that foster access to energy services and promote therefore the development of rural and underprivileged areas. The thesis begins with two multicriteria procedures presented for the evaluation and the design, respectively, of rural electrification projects. These procedures are applied to two real case studies in Peru and Nigeria. Both applications provide valuable insights, for local authorities and other promoters of electrification systems in similar contexts, regarding which technologies and configurations to use in determined circumstances. At the same time, the analysis carried out enable an improvement regarding the robustness of results through the consideration of the lack of confidence of the opinions collected about the importance of the criteria and the evaluation of the alternatives. In this regard, A Methodology for Multicriteria Decision-making considering Uncertainty (MIMDU) is then developed based on fuzzy numbers to include the lack of confidence experts and users might have when weighting a criterion or evaluating an alternative. The methodology designed includes a novel procedure to quantify human opinions with non-pre-defined fuzzy numbers and a systematic process to calculate diverse rankings of alternatives and provide complimentary information that leads to a more robust decision-making. Indeed, the potential of the methodology is illustrated with an example case that shows how the lack of confidence can affect the alternatives ranking and the subsequent decision. Finally, the methodology is applied to a real case study in Colombia to select the best alternative for digestate post-treatment before its application to agricultural soil as a fertilizer. The use of MIMDU presents three major beneficial outcomes for multicriteria decision-making to foster rural development. First, the consideration of the lack of confidence of the respondents can reduce the pressure they might feel when providing an answer without complete knowledge. Second, it allows a more accurate quantification of the opinions given, turning, for example, more hesitant answers into less reliable evaluations of an alternative, that worsens its final ranking. And third, more robust decisions can be taken due to the major precision in the modelling of opinions and the possibility of comparing crisp and fuzzy-based rankings of the alternatives.Dins dels objectius de desenvolupament sostenibles, els serveis energètics moderns es consideren crucials no només per aconseguir l'accés universal a l'energia el 2030, sinó per la seva contribució a pal·liar la pobresa crònica, reduir la inseguretat alimentària, promoure l'accés a la informació moderna a les escoles i permetre l'inici d'activitats productives. Tot i això, l’objectiu d’accés mundial per al 2030 encara està lluny d’acomplir-se, ja que més de 700 milions de persones viuen a les zones rurals sense accés a l’electricitat i utilitzen llenya i altres biomasses tradicionals contaminants per cuinar i escalfar. Els sistemes energètics descentralitzats guanyen pes respecte l’extensió de la xarxa per proporcionar energia a zones rurals i inaccessibles. L’avaluació i el disseny d’aquests sistemes és un procés complex que ha de tenir en compte múltiples alternatives i criteris per garantir una sostenibilitat a llarg termini, però els estudis de literatura disponibles generalment se centren exclusivament en aspectes tècniques i econòmiques. A més, la minoria d’estudis que segueixen un enfocament multicriteri subestimen l’efecte de la manca de confiança potencial dels experts i usuaris consultats per ponderar la importància de cada criteri o avaluar una alternativa específica. En aquest context, l'objectiu d'aquesta tesi és desenvolupar procediments multicriteri considerant la incertesa per afavorir l’obtenció de resultats robustos. Aquests procediments s’apliquen a projectes que afavoreixen l’accés als serveis energètics i promouen, per tant, el desenvolupament de zones rurals i desfavorides. La tesi comença amb dos procediments multicriteri presentats per a l'avaluació i el disseny, respectivament, de projectes d'electrificació rural. Aquests procediments s'apliquen a dos casos pràctics reals al Perú i Nigèria. Ambdues aplicacions proporcionen informació valuosa, per a les autoritats locals i altres promotors de sistemes d’electrificació en contextos similars, sobre quines tecnologies i configuracions a utilitzar en determinades circumstàncies. Al mateix temps, les anàlisis realitzades permeten una millora en quant a la solidesa dels resultats mitjançant la consideració de la manca de confiança de les opinions recollides sobre la importància dels criteris i l’avaluació de les alternatives. Per fer-ho, es desenvolupa una metodologia per a la presa de decisions multicriteri que té en compte la incertesa (MIMDU) basada en nombres difusos per incloure la manca de confiança que els experts i usuaris podrien tenir quan ponderen un criteri o avaluen una alternativa. La metodologia dissenyada inclou un nou procediment per quantificar opinions humanes amb nombres difusos no predefinits i un procés sistemàtic per calcular diversos rànquings d’alternatives i proporcionar informació complementària que condueix a una presa de decisions més robusta. De fet, el potencial de la metodologia s’il·lustra amb un cas d’exemple que mostra com la manca de confiança pot afectar el rànquing d’alternatives i la decisió posterior. Finalment, la metodologia s'aplica a un estudi de cas real a Colòmbia per seleccionar la millor alternativa per al post-tractament del digestat abans de la seva aplicació a sòl agrícola com a fertilitzant. L’ús de MIMDU presenta tres grans beneficis per a la presa de decisions multicriteri per fomentar el desenvolupament rural. En primer lloc, la consideració de la manca de confiança dels enquestats pot reduir la pressió que podrien sentir al donar una resposta sense coneixement complet. En segon lloc, permet una quantificació més precisa de les opinions donades, convertint, per exemple, respostes més dubtoses en avaluacions menys fiables d’una alternativa, que empitjora la seva classificació final. I, en tercer lloc, es poden prendre decisions més robustes a causa de la precisió en la modelització d’opinionsEn 2015, la Organización de las Naciones Unidas definió los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible en una transición hacia un mundo sin pobreza y donde se priorizan los derechos humanos, la equidad y la sostenibilidad. En particular, los servicios energéticos modernos se consideran cruciales no solo para lograr el acceso universal a la energía en 2030, sino por su contribución para aliviar la pobreza crónica, reducir la inseguridad alimentaria, promover el acceso a la información en las escuelas y permitir el inicio de actividades productivas. Sin embargo, el objetivo de acceso global a la energía para 2030 aún está lejos de ser completo, con más de 700 millones de personas viviendo en áreas rurales sin acceso a electricidad y utilizando leña y otra biomasa tradicional contaminante, para cocinar y calentar. Los sistemas de energía descentralizados están ganando peso respecto a la extensión de la red para proporcionar energía a áreas rurales e inaccesibles. La evaluación y el diseño de sistemas descentralizados es un proceso complejo que precisa considerar múltiples alternativas y criterios para que sea sostenible a largo plazo, pero los estudios disponibles en la literatura generalmente se enfocan exclusivamente en aspectos técnicos y económicos. Asimismo, la minoría de estudios que siguen un enfoque de toma de decisiones multicriterio subestiman el efecto de la potencial falta de confianza de los expertos y usuarios consultados para ponderar la importancia de cada criterio o para evaluar una alternativa específica. En este contexto, el objetivo de esta tesis es desarrollar procedimientos multicriterio considerando la incertidumbre para aumentar la robustez de los resultados. Estos procedimientos se aplican a proyectos que fomentan el acceso a los servicios energéticos y, por tanto, promueven el desarrollo de zonas rurales y desfavorecidas. La tesis comienza con dos procedimientos multicriterio presentados para la evaluación y el diseño, respectivamente, de proyectos de electrificación rural. Estos procedimientos se aplican a dos estudios de casos reales en Perú y Nigeria. Ambas aplicaciones pueden proporcionar información valiosa, para las autoridades locales y otros promotores de sistemas de electrificación en contextos similares, sobre qué tecnologías y configuraciones utilizar en determinadas circunstancias. Al mismo tiempo, los análisis realizados permiten una mejora en cuanto a la robustez de los resultados a través de la consideración de la falta de confianza de las opiniones recogidas acerca de la importancia de los criterios y de la evaluación de las alternativas. Para ello, se desarrolla una Metodología para la toma de decisiones multicriterio considerando la incertidumbre (MIMDU) basada en números difusos para incluir la falta de confianza que los expertos y los usuarios pueden tener al ponderar un criterio o evaluar una alternativa La metodología diseñada incluye un procedimiento novedoso para cuantificar opiniones humanas con números difusos no predefinidos y un proceso sistemático para proponer rankings de alternativas y brindar información complementaria que conduce a una toma de decisiones más robusta. El potencial de la metodología se ilustra con un caso de ejemplo que muestra cómo la falta de confianza puede afectar el ranking de alternativas y la decisión posterior. Finalmente, la metodología diseñada se aplica a un estudio de caso real en Colombia para seleccionar la mejor alternativa para el digestato post-tratamiento previo a su aplicación al suelo agrícola como fertilizante. El uso de MIMDU presenta tres importantes beneficios para la toma de decisiones multicriterio en contextos de desarrollo rural. En primer lugar, la consideración de la falta de confianza de los encuestados puede reducir la presión al dar una respuesta sin un conocimiento completo. En segundo lugar, permite una cuantificación más precisa de las opiniones emitidas, convirtiendo, por ejemplo, respuestas más vacilantes en valoraciones menos fiables de una alternativa, que empeora su clasificación final. Y tercero, se pueden tomar decisiones más sólidas debido a la mayor precisión en el modelado de opiniones y la posibilidad de comparar rankings deterministas y difusos de las alternativas.Postprint (published version