Assessing spatiotemporal correlations from data for short-term traffic prediction using multi-task learning

Traffic flow prediction is a fundamental problem for efficient transportation control and management. However, most current data-driven traffic prediction work found in the literature have focused on predicting traffic from an individual task perspective, and have not fully leveraged the implicit knowledge present in a road-network through space and time correlations. Such correlations are now far easier to isolate due to the recent profusion of traffic data sources and more specifically their wide geographic spread. In this paper, we take a multi-task learning (MTL) approach whose fundamental aim is to improve the generalization performance by leveraging the domain-specific information contained in related tasks that are jointly learned. In addition, another common factor found in the literature is that a historical dataset is used for the calibration and the assessment of the proposed approach, without dealing in any explicit or implicit way with the frequent challenges found in real-time prediction. In contrast, we adopt a different approach which faces this problem from a point of view of streams of data, and thus the learning procedure is undertaken online, giving greater importance to the most recent data, making data-driven decisions online, and undoing decisions which are no longer optimal. In the experiments presented we achieve a more compact and consistent knowledge in the form of rules automatically extracted from data, while maintaining or even improving, in some cases, the performance over single-task learning (STL).Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Improving adaptation and interpretability of a short-term traffic forecasting system

Traffic management is being more important than ever, especially in overcrowded big cities with over-pollution problems and with new unprecedented mobility changes. In this scenario, road-traffic prediction plays a key role within Intelligent Transportation Systems, allowing traffic managers to be able to anticipate and take the proper decisions. This paper aims to analyse the situation in a commercial real-time prediction system with its current problems and limitations. The analysis unveils the trade-off between simple parsimonious models and more complex models. Finally, we propose an enriched machine learning framework, Adarules, for the traffic prediction in real-time facing the problem as continuously incoming data streams with all the commonly occurring problems in such volatile scenario, namely changes in the network infrastructure and demand, new detection stations or failure ones, among others. The framework is also able to infer automatically the most relevant features to our end-task, including the relationships within the road network. Although the intention with the proposed framework is to evolve and grow with new incoming big data, however there is no limitation in starting to use it without any prior knowledge as it can starts learning the structure and parameters automatically from data. We test this predictive system in different real-work scenarios, and evaluate its performance integrating a multi-task learning paradigm for the sake of the traffic prediction task.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Assessing the Impact of Game Day Schedule and Opponents on Travel Patterns and Route Choice using Big Data Analytics

The transportation system is crucial for transferring people and goods from point A to point B. However, its reliability can be decreased by unanticipated congestion resulting from planned special events. For example, sporting events collect large crowds of people at specific venues on game days and disrupt normal traffic patterns. The goal of this study was to understand issues related to road traffic management during major sporting events by using widely available INRIX data to compare travel patterns and behaviors on game days against those on normal days. A comprehensive analysis was conducted on the impact of all Nebraska Cornhuskers football games over five years on traffic congestion on five major routes in Nebraska. We attempted to identify hotspots, the unusually high-risk zones in a spatiotemporal space containing traffic congestion that occur on almost all game days. For hotspot detection, we utilized a method called Multi-EigenSpot, which is able to detect multiple hotspots in a spatiotemporal space. With this algorithm, we were able to detect traffic hotspot clusters on the five chosen routes in Nebraska. After detecting the hotspots, we identified the factors affecting the sizes of hotspots and other parameters. The start time of the game and the Cornhuskers’ opponent for a given game are two important factors affecting the number of people coming to Lincoln, Nebraska, on game days. Finally, the Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) approach was applied to forecast the start times and locations of hotspot clusters in 2018 with a weighted mean absolute percentage error (WMAPE) of 13.8%

An adaptive, fault-tolerant system for road network traffic prediction using machine learning

This thesis has addressed the design and development of an integrated system for real-time traffic forecasting based on machine learning methods. Although traffic prediction has been the driving motivation for the thesis development, a great part of the proposed ideas and scientific contributions in this thesis are generic enough to be applied in any other problem where, ideally, their definition is that of the flow of information in a graph-like structure. Such application is of special interest in environments susceptible to changes in the underlying data generation process. Moreover, the modular architecture of the proposed solution facilitates the adoption of small changes to the components that allow it to be adapted to a broader range of problems. On the other hand, certain specific parts of this thesis are strongly tied to the traffic flow theory. The focus in this thesis is on a macroscopic perspective of the traffic flow where the individual road traffic flows are correlated to the underlying traffic demand. These short-term forecasts include the road network characterization in terms of the corresponding traffic measurements –traffic flow, density and/or speed–, the traffic state –whether a road is congested or not, and its severity–, and anomalous road conditions –incidents or other non-recurrent events–. The main traffic data used in this thesis is data coming from detectors installed along the road networks. Nevertheless, other kinds of traffic data sources could be equally suitable with the appropriate preprocessing. This thesis has been developed in the context of Aimsun Live –a simulation-based traffic solution for real-time traffic prediction developed by Aimsun–. The methods proposed here is planned to be linked to it in a mutually beneficial relationship where they cooperate and assist each other. An example is when an incident or non-recurrent event is detected with the proposed methods in this thesis, then the simulation-based forecasting module can simulate different strategies to measure their impact. Part of this thesis has been also developed in the context of the EU research project "SETA" (H2020-ICT-2015). The main motivation that has guided the development of this thesis is enhancing those weak points and limitations previously identified in Aimsun Live, and whose research found in literature has not been especially extensive. These include: • Autonomy, both in the preparation and real-time stages. • Adaptation, to gradual or abrupt changes in traffic demand or supply. • Informativeness, about anomalous road conditions. • Forecasting accuracy improved with respect to previous methodology at Aimsun and a typical forecasting baseline. • Robustness, to deal with faulty or missing data in real-time. • Interpretability, adopting modelling choices towards a more transparent reasoning and understanding of the underlying data-driven decisions. • Scalable, using a modular architecture with emphasis on a parallelizable exploitation of large amounts of data. The result of this thesis is an integrated system –Adarules– for real-time forecasting which is able to make the best of the available historical data, while at the same time it also leverages the theoretical unbounded size of data in a continuously streaming scenario. This is achieved through the online learning and change detection features along with the automatic finding and maintenance of patterns in the network graph. In addition to the Adarules system, another result is a probabilistic model that characterizes a set of interpretable latent variables related to the traffic state based on the traffic data provided by the sensors along with optional prior knowledge provided by the traffic expert following a Bayesian approach. On top of this traffic state model, it is built the probabilistic spatiotemporal model that learns the dynamics of the transition of traffic states in the network, and whose objectives include the automatic incident detection.Esta tesis ha abordado el diseño y desarrollo de un sistema integrado para la predicción de tráfico en tiempo real basándose en métodos de aprendizaje automático. Aunque la predicción de tráfico ha sido la motivación que ha guiado el desarrollo de la tesis, gran parte de las ideas y aportaciones científicas propuestas en esta tesis son lo suficientemente genéricas como para ser aplicadas en cualquier otro problema en el que, idealmente, su definición sea la del flujo de información en una estructura de grafo. Esta aplicación es de especial interés en entornos susceptibles a cambios en el proceso de generación de datos. Además, la arquitectura modular facilita la adaptación a una gama más amplia de problemas. Por otra parte, ciertas partes específicas de esta tesis están fuertemente ligadas a la teoría del flujo de tráfico. El enfoque de esta tesis se centra en una perspectiva macroscópica del flujo de tráfico en la que los flujos individuales están ligados a la demanda de tráfico subyacente. Las predicciones a corto plazo incluyen la caracterización de las carreteras en base a las medidas de tráfico -flujo, densidad y/o velocidad-, el estado del tráfico -si la carretera está congestionada o no, y su severidad-, y la detección de condiciones anómalas -incidentes u otros eventos no recurrentes-. Los datos utilizados en esta tesis proceden de detectores instalados a lo largo de las redes de carreteras. No obstante, otros tipos de fuentes de datos podrían ser igualmente empleados con el preprocesamiento apropiado. Esta tesis ha sido desarrollada en el contexto de Aimsun Live -software desarrollado por Aimsun, basado en simulación para la predicción en tiempo real de tráfico-. Los métodos aquí propuestos cooperarán con este. Un ejemplo es cuando se detecta un incidente o un evento no recurrente, entonces pueden simularse diferentes estrategias para medir su impacto. Parte de esta tesis también ha sido desarrollada en el marco del proyecto de la UE "SETA" (H2020-ICT-2015). La principal motivación que ha guiado el desarrollo de esta tesis es mejorar aquellas limitaciones previamente identificadas en Aimsun Live, y cuya investigación encontrada en la literatura no ha sido muy extensa. Estos incluyen: -Autonomía, tanto en la etapa de preparación como en la de tiempo real. -Adaptación, a los cambios graduales o abruptos de la demanda u oferta de tráfico. -Sistema informativo, sobre las condiciones anómalas de la carretera. -Mejora en la precisión de las predicciones con respecto a la metodología anterior de Aimsun y a un método típico usado como referencia. -Robustez, para hacer frente a datos defectuosos o faltantes en tiempo real. -Interpretabilidad, adoptando criterios de modelización hacia un razonamiento más transparente para un humano. -Escalable, utilizando una arquitectura modular con énfasis en una explotación paralela de grandes cantidades de datos. El resultado de esta tesis es un sistema integrado –Adarules- para la predicción en tiempo real que sabe maximizar el provecho de los datos históricos disponibles, mientras que al mismo tiempo también sabe aprovechar el tamaño teórico ilimitado de los datos en un escenario de streaming. Esto se logra a través del aprendizaje en línea y la capacidad de detección de cambios junto con la búsqueda automática y el mantenimiento de los patrones en la estructura de grafo de la red. Además del sistema Adarules, otro resultado de la tesis es un modelo probabilístico que caracteriza un conjunto de variables latentes interpretables relacionadas con el estado del tráfico basado en los datos de sensores junto con el conocimiento previo –opcional- proporcionado por el experto en tráfico utilizando un planteamiento Bayesiano. Sobre este modelo de estados de tráfico se construye el modelo espacio-temporal probabilístico que aprende la dinámica de la transición de estadosPostprint (published version

A review of travel time estimation and forecasting for advanced traveler information systems

Providing on line travel time information to commuters has become an important issue for Advanced Traveler Information Systems and Route Guidance Systems in the past years, due to the increasing traffic volume and congestion in the road networks. Travel time is one of the most useful traffic variables because it is more intuitive than other traffic variables such as flow, occupancy or density, and is useful for travelers in decision making. The aim of this paper is to present a global view of the literature on the modeling of travel time, introducing crucial concepts and giving a thorough classification of the existing tech- niques. Most of the attention will focus on travel time estimation and travel time prediction, which are generally not presented together. The main goals of these models, the study areas and methodologies used to carry out these tasks will be further explored and categorized

An adaptive, fault-tolerant system for road network traffic prediction using machine learning

This thesis has addressed the design and development of an integrated system for real-time traffic forecasting based on machine learning methods. Although traffic prediction has been the driving motivation for the thesis development, a great part of the proposed ideas and scientific contributions in this thesis are generic enough to be applied in any other problem where, ideally, their definition is that of the flow of information in a graph-like structure. Such application is of special interest in environments susceptible to changes in the underlying data generation process. Moreover, the modular architecture of the proposed solution facilitates the adoption of small changes to the components that allow it to be adapted to a broader range of problems. On the other hand, certain specific parts of this thesis are strongly tied to the traffic flow theory. The focus in this thesis is on a macroscopic perspective of the traffic flow where the individual road traffic flows are correlated to the underlying traffic demand. These short-term forecasts include the road network characterization in terms of the corresponding traffic measurements –traffic flow, density and/or speed–, the traffic state –whether a road is congested or not, and its severity–, and anomalous road conditions –incidents or other non-recurrent events–. The main traffic data used in this thesis is data coming from detectors installed along the road networks. Nevertheless, other kinds of traffic data sources could be equally suitable with the appropriate preprocessing. This thesis has been developed in the context of Aimsun Live –a simulation-based traffic solution for real-time traffic prediction developed by Aimsun–. The methods proposed here is planned to be linked to it in a mutually beneficial relationship where they cooperate and assist each other. An example is when an incident or non-recurrent event is detected with the proposed methods in this thesis, then the simulation-based forecasting module can simulate different strategies to measure their impact. Part of this thesis has been also developed in the context of the EU research project "SETA" (H2020-ICT-2015). The main motivation that has guided the development of this thesis is enhancing those weak points and limitations previously identified in Aimsun Live, and whose research found in literature has not been especially extensive. These include: • Autonomy, both in the preparation and real-time stages. • Adaptation, to gradual or abrupt changes in traffic demand or supply. • Informativeness, about anomalous road conditions. • Forecasting accuracy improved with respect to previous methodology at Aimsun and a typical forecasting baseline. • Robustness, to deal with faulty or missing data in real-time. • Interpretability, adopting modelling choices towards a more transparent reasoning and understanding of the underlying data-driven decisions. • Scalable, using a modular architecture with emphasis on a parallelizable exploitation of large amounts of data. The result of this thesis is an integrated system –Adarules– for real-time forecasting which is able to make the best of the available historical data, while at the same time it also leverages the theoretical unbounded size of data in a continuously streaming scenario. This is achieved through the online learning and change detection features along with the automatic finding and maintenance of patterns in the network graph. In addition to the Adarules system, another result is a probabilistic model that characterizes a set of interpretable latent variables related to the traffic state based on the traffic data provided by the sensors along with optional prior knowledge provided by the traffic expert following a Bayesian approach. On top of this traffic state model, it is built the probabilistic spatiotemporal model that learns the dynamics of the transition of traffic states in the network, and whose objectives include the automatic incident detection.Esta tesis ha abordado el diseño y desarrollo de un sistema integrado para la predicción de tráfico en tiempo real basándose en métodos de aprendizaje automático. Aunque la predicción de tráfico ha sido la motivación que ha guiado el desarrollo de la tesis, gran parte de las ideas y aportaciones científicas propuestas en esta tesis son lo suficientemente genéricas como para ser aplicadas en cualquier otro problema en el que, idealmente, su definición sea la del flujo de información en una estructura de grafo. Esta aplicación es de especial interés en entornos susceptibles a cambios en el proceso de generación de datos. Además, la arquitectura modular facilita la adaptación a una gama más amplia de problemas. Por otra parte, ciertas partes específicas de esta tesis están fuertemente ligadas a la teoría del flujo de tráfico. El enfoque de esta tesis se centra en una perspectiva macroscópica del flujo de tráfico en la que los flujos individuales están ligados a la demanda de tráfico subyacente. Las predicciones a corto plazo incluyen la caracterización de las carreteras en base a las medidas de tráfico -flujo, densidad y/o velocidad-, el estado del tráfico -si la carretera está congestionada o no, y su severidad-, y la detección de condiciones anómalas -incidentes u otros eventos no recurrentes-. Los datos utilizados en esta tesis proceden de detectores instalados a lo largo de las redes de carreteras. No obstante, otros tipos de fuentes de datos podrían ser igualmente empleados con el preprocesamiento apropiado. Esta tesis ha sido desarrollada en el contexto de Aimsun Live -software desarrollado por Aimsun, basado en simulación para la predicción en tiempo real de tráfico-. Los métodos aquí propuestos cooperarán con este. Un ejemplo es cuando se detecta un incidente o un evento no recurrente, entonces pueden simularse diferentes estrategias para medir su impacto. Parte de esta tesis también ha sido desarrollada en el marco del proyecto de la UE "SETA" (H2020-ICT-2015). La principal motivación que ha guiado el desarrollo de esta tesis es mejorar aquellas limitaciones previamente identificadas en Aimsun Live, y cuya investigación encontrada en la literatura no ha sido muy extensa. Estos incluyen: -Autonomía, tanto en la etapa de preparación como en la de tiempo real. -Adaptación, a los cambios graduales o abruptos de la demanda u oferta de tráfico. -Sistema informativo, sobre las condiciones anómalas de la carretera. -Mejora en la precisión de las predicciones con respecto a la metodología anterior de Aimsun y a un método típico usado como referencia. -Robustez, para hacer frente a datos defectuosos o faltantes en tiempo real. -Interpretabilidad, adoptando criterios de modelización hacia un razonamiento más transparente para un humano. -Escalable, utilizando una arquitectura modular con énfasis en una explotación paralela de grandes cantidades de datos. El resultado de esta tesis es un sistema integrado –Adarules- para la predicción en tiempo real que sabe maximizar el provecho de los datos históricos disponibles, mientras que al mismo tiempo también sabe aprovechar el tamaño teórico ilimitado de los datos en un escenario de streaming. Esto se logra a través del aprendizaje en línea y la capacidad de detección de cambios junto con la búsqueda automática y el mantenimiento de los patrones en la estructura de grafo de la red. Además del sistema Adarules, otro resultado de la tesis es un modelo probabilístico que caracteriza un conjunto de variables latentes interpretables relacionadas con el estado del tráfico basado en los datos de sensores junto con el conocimiento previo –opcional- proporcionado por el experto en tráfico utilizando un planteamiento Bayesiano. Sobre este modelo de estados de tráfico se construye el modelo espacio-temporal probabilístico que aprende la dinámica de la transición de estado

Travel time estimation in congested urban networks using point detectors data

A model for estimating travel time on short arterial links of congested urban networks, using currently available technology, is introduced in this thesis. The objective is to estimate travel time, with an acceptable level of accuracy for real-life traffic problems, such as congestion management and emergency evacuation. To achieve this research objective, various travel time estimation methods, including highway trajectories, multiple linear regression (MLR), artificial neural networks (ANN) and K –nearest neighbor (K-NN) were applied and tested on the same dataset. The results demonstrate that ANN and K-NN methods outperform linear methods by a significant margin, also, show particularly good performance in detecting congested intervals. To ensure the quality of the analysis results, set of procedures and algorithms based on traffic flow theory and test field information, were introduced to validate and clean the data used to build, train and test the different models

A Taxonomy of Traffic Forecasting Regression Problems From a Supervised Learning Perspective

One contemporary policy to deal with traffic congestion is the design and implementation of forecasting methods that allow users to plan ahead of time and decision makers to improve traffic management. Current data availability and growing computational capacities have increased the use of machine learning (ML) to address traffic prediction, which is mostly modeled as a supervised regression problem. Although some studies have presented taxonomies to sort the literature in this field, they are mostly oriented to classify the ML methods applied and a little effort has been directed to categorize the traffic forecasting problems approached by them. As far as we know, there is no comprehensive taxonomy that classifies these problems from the point of view of both traffic and ML. In this paper, we propose a taxonomy to categorize the aforementioned problems from both traffic and a supervised regression learning perspective. The taxonomy aims at unifying and consolidating categorization criteria related to traffic and it introduces new criteria to classify the problems in terms of how they are modeled from a supervised regression approach. The traffic forecasting literature, from 2000 to 2019, is categorized using this taxonomy to illustrate its descriptive power. From this categorization, different remarks are discussed regarding the current gaps and trends in the addressed traffic forecasting area