Application of expert systems in project management decision aiding

The feasibility of developing an expert systems-based project management decision aid to enhance the performance of NASA project managers was assessed. The research effort included extensive literature reviews in the areas of project management, project management decision aiding, expert systems technology, and human-computer interface engineering. Literature reviews were augmented by focused interviews with NASA managers. Time estimation for project scheduling was identified as the target activity for decision augmentation, and a design was developed for an Integrated NASA System for Intelligent Time Estimation (INSITE). The proposed INSITE design was judged feasible with a low level of risk. A partial proof-of-concept experiment was performed and was successful. Specific conclusions drawn from the research and analyses are included. The INSITE concept is potentially applicable in any management sphere, commercial or government, where time estimation is required for project scheduling. As project scheduling is a nearly universal management activity, the range of possibilities is considerable. The INSITE concept also holds potential for enhancing other management tasks, especially in areas such as cost estimation, where estimation-by-analogy is already a proven method

AI and OR in management of operations: history and trends

The last decade has seen a considerable growth in the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) for operations management with the aim of finding solutions to problems that are increasing in complexity and scale. This paper begins by setting the context for the survey through a historical perspective of OR and AI. An extensive survey of applications of AI techniques for operations management, covering a total of over 1200 papers published from 1995 to 2004 is then presented. The survey utilizes Elsevier's ScienceDirect database as a source. Hence, the survey may not cover all the relevant journals but includes a sufficiently wide range of publications to make it representative of the research in the field. The papers are categorized into four areas of operations management: (a) design, (b) scheduling, (c) process planning and control and (d) quality, maintenance and fault diagnosis. Each of the four areas is categorized in terms of the AI techniques used: genetic algorithms, case-based reasoning, knowledge-based systems, fuzzy logic and hybrid techniques. The trends over the last decade are identified, discussed with respect to expected trends and directions for future work suggested

Optimizing Effort and Time Parameters of COCOMO II Estimation using Fuzzy Multi-objective PSO

The  estimation  of  software  effort  is  an  essential and  crucial   activity   for  the  software   development   life  cycle. Software effort estimation is a challenge that often appears on the project of making a software. A poor estimate will produce result in a worse project management.  Various software cost estimation model has been introduced  to resolve this problem. Constructive Cost Model II (COCOMO II Model) create large extent most considerable  and broadly  used as model  for cost estimation.  To estimate   the  effort  and  the  development   time  of  a  software project,  COCOMO  II model uses cost drivers,  scale factors  and line  of  code.  However,  the  model  is  still  lacking  in  terms  of accuracy both in effort and development  time estimation.  In this study,   we   do   investigate   the   influence   of   components   and attributes to achieve new better accuracy improvement on COCOMO II model. And we introduced the use of Gaussian Membership  Function  (GMF)  Fuzzy  Logic  and Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization method (MOPSO) algorithms in calibrating  and optimizing  the COCOMO  II model parameters. The   proposed   method   is   applied   on   Nasa93   dataset.   The experiment  result of proposed method able to reduce error down to  11.891%  and  8.082%  from  the  perspective  of  COCOMO  II model.  The  method  has  achieved  better  results  than  those  of previous   researches   and  deals  proficient   with  inexplicit   data input and further improve reliability of the estimation method

Big data analytics:Computational intelligence techniques and application areas

Big Data has significant impact in developing functional smart cities and supporting modern societies. In this paper, we investigate the importance of Big Data in modern life and economy, and discuss challenges arising from Big Data utilization. Different computational intelligence techniques have been considered as tools for Big Data analytics. We also explore the powerful combination of Big Data and Computational Intelligence (CI) and identify a number of areas, where novel applications in real world smart city problems can be developed by utilizing these powerful tools and techniques. We present a case study for intelligent transportation in the context of a smart city, and a novel data modelling methodology based on a biologically inspired universal generative modelling approach called Hierarchical Spatial-Temporal State Machine (HSTSM). We further discuss various implications of policy, protection, valuation and commercialization related to Big Data, its applications and deployment

Optimizing Time and Effort Parameters of COCOMO II using Fuzzy Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization

Estimating the efforts, costs, and schedules of software projects is a frequent challenge to software development projects. A bad estimation will result in bad management of a project. Various models of estimation have been defined to complete this estimate. The Constructive Cost Model II (COCOMO II) is one of the most famous models as a model for estimating efforts, costs, and schedules. To estimate the effort, cost, and schedule in project of software, the COCOMO II uses inputs: Effort Multiplier (EM), Scale Factor (SF), and Source Line of Code (SLOC). Evidently, this model is still lack in terms of accuracy rates in both efforts estimated and time of development. In this paper, we introduced to use Gaussian Membership Function (GMF) of Fuzzy Logic and Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization (MOPSO) method to calibrate and optimize the parameters of COCOMO II. It is to achieve a new level of accuracy better on COCOMO II. The Nasa93 dataset is used to implement the method proposed. The experimental results of the method proposed have reduced the error downto 11.89% and 8.08% compared to the original COCOMO II. This method proposed has achieved better results than previous studies

Towards an Early Software Estimation Using Log-Linear Regression and a Multilayer Perceptron Model

Software estimation is a tedious and daunting task in project management and software development. Software estimators are notorious in predicting software effort and they have been struggling in the past decades to provide new models to enhance software estimation. The most critical and crucial part of software estimation is when estimation is required in the early stages of the software life cycle where the problem to be solved has not yet been completely revealed. This paper presents a novel log-linear regression model based on the use case point model (UCP) to calculate the software effort based on use case diagrams. A fuzzy logic approach is used to calibrate the productivity factor in the regression model. Moreover, a multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network model was developed to predict software effortbased on the software size and team productivity. Experiments show that the proposed approach outperforms the original UCP model. Furthermore, a comparison between the MLP and log-linear regression models was conducted based on the size of the projects. Results demonstrate that the MLP model can surpass the regression model when small projects are used, but the log-linear regression model gives better results when estimating larger projects

Software Effort Prediction - A Fuzzy Logic Approach

Accuracy in the estimation of software Effort/Cost is one of the desirable criteria for any software cost estimation model. The estimation of effort or cost before the actual development of any software is the most crucial task of the present day software development project managers. Software project attributes are often measured in terms of linguistic values such as very low, low, Average, high and very high. The imprecise nature of such attributes constitutes uncertainty and vagueness in their subsequent interpretation. In this paper we propose a Fuzzy logic based model for software effort prediction. We feel that fuzzy Software cost estimation Model should be able to deal with imprecision and uncertainty associated with various parameter values. Fuzzy analogy model has been developed and validated upon student data

Feature weighting techniques for CBR in software effort estimation studies: A review and empirical evaluation

Context : Software effort estimation is one of the most important activities in the software development process. Unfortunately, estimates are often substantially wrong. Numerous estimation methods have been proposed including Case-based Reasoning (CBR). In order to improve CBR estimation accuracy, many researchers have proposed feature weighting techniques (FWT). Objective: Our purpose is to systematically review the empirical evidence to determine whether FWT leads to improved predictions. In addition we evaluate these techniques from the perspectives of (i) approach (ii) strengths and weaknesses (iii) performance and (iv) experimental evaluation approach including the data sets used. Method: We conducted a systematic literature review of published, refereed primary studies on FWT (2000-2014). Results: We identified 19 relevant primary studies. These reported a range of different techniques. 17 out of 19 make benchmark comparisons with standard CBR and 16 out of 17 studies report improved accuracy. Using a one-sample sign test this positive impact is significant (p = 0:0003). Conclusion: The actionable conclusion from this study is that our review of all relevant empirical evidence supports the use of FWTs and we recommend that researchers and practitioners give serious consideration to their adoption